EU Strategy Exacerbates Winner-Loser Divide in Balkans
While the EU’s new strategy on Balkans gives Serbia and Montenegro reason for optimism about their membership, the other four countries feel out in the cold
Serbia and Montenegro have been deemed “frontrunners” in terms of EU membership in the Balkans – although an overview of the issues the individual so-called “Western Balkans six” face offers a more nuanced perspective.
“We are proud to have Serbia recognized as a leader. We worked hard for that, and will have to work even harder in the weeks, months and years ahead,” Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said, Serbia’s national broadcaster, RTS, reported.
Montenegro’s Prime Minister Dusko Markovic, meanwhile said he believed that his country might even join the EU before 2025, which the EU Strategy sets as the year by which Serbia and Montenegro could become members.
“This is a positive signal that sends a clear message to the region that the European perspective for the Western Balkans is credible and ‘alive’,” Markovic said in Podgorica.
However, the overall assessment of the rule of law in the region in the Strategy strikes a more pessimistic tone.
It says that these countries show “clear elements of state capture”, including links with organised crime and corruption at all levels of government, as well as a strong entanglement of public and private interests.
“All this feeds a sentiment of impunity and inequality. There is also extensive political interference in and control of the media,” the Strategy says.
Many observers see the European Commission’s positive assessment of Serbia’s progress mainly as a tool to lure Belgrade closer to the EU and away from Russian influence.
While the enlargement Strategy names Serbia a “front-runner”, its EU integration process has in fact lasted for years already.
Belgrade signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement, SAA, back in 2008 and applied for EU membership in 2009.
With 12 negotiation chapters opened but only two provisionally closed, accession even by 2025 still looks unlikely.
Montenegro has got much further.
After declaring independence from a state union with Serbia in 2006, it signed an SAA the next year and has been an EU candidate state since 2010. It has also joined NATO, in 2017.
It has since opened 30 of the 35 chapters and is thus a much clearer “front-runner” for EU membership than Serbia.
However, the European Commission has recommended a “greater use of leverage” in the negotiation framework with Montenegro, focusing on the rule of law.
Albania, Macedonia making ‘progress’:
Macedonia, by comparison, signed an SAA far back in 2001, but its EU and NATO integration has been blocked by the dispute with Greece over its name.
After a year of political turbulence brought a new government to power, Macedonia hopes for a breakthrough this year in its stalled NATO and EU accession bids, provided a compromise is reached on the long-standing “name” dispute.
“Macedonia marks considerable progress. That was the focus that was determined yesterday in the strategy,” government spokesperson Mile Bosnjakovski said in Skopje on Wednesday.
He added that the Skopje government will continue to strive for a breakthrough in the dispute with Greece over its name.
Along with Macedonia, Albania is said also to be making “significant progress” on its European path.
The Commission said it is ready to prepare recommendations to open accession negotiations with both countries.
However, Albania has long had issues in implementing EU-required judicial reforms, which have delayed the opening of chapters in its membership negotiations.
Justice reform is related to the most important chapters and, if fully implemented, would help resolve other difficulties as well.
But the last EU Progress Report, from 2016, noted weaknesses in almost every field except defence where, as a NATO member, it is considered “Well Advanced”.
Out of about 40 indicators, Albania is considered in the “early stages” in five of them, at a “low level of preparedness” in 15, and “average” in 19.
Kosovo and Bosnia far behind in membership race:
Two other countries in the region, Kosovo and Bosnia, are further behind.
A dispute between Bosnia’s two entities, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska, has prevented the country from even completing the EU Questionnaire – which the European Commission will use to prepare an opinion on Bosnia’s application.
About 50 questions to do with political criteria appear to contain major problems, though this has not been officially confirmed.
Republika Srpska has meanwhile refused to recognise the data from the national census published in 2016, which is one of the problems with the questionnaire.
Besides that, Republika Srpska does not wish to take part in the country’s working groups on EU integration, claiming that they were not defined within the Coordination Mechanism, which is also seen as a reason why the questionnaire is not ready.
“We need to implement the reforms to create a better and safer society for all citizens, without anyone scoring political points,” the chairman of Bosnia’s Council of Ministers, Denis Zvizdic, told the news website Klix.ba.
Kosovo is even more left out of the process, mainly owing to continuing disputes over its independence, which Serbia and some other countries reject.
It signed an SAA in 2015, but it has still not met the EU criteria for visa liberalisation, after failing to ratify a border deal with Montenegro.
It is also not clear even if the country can launch EU membership negotiations, when it remains unrecognized by five EU member states – Greece, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia and Spain.
The EU Strategy notes the need for a legally binding agreement to resolve relations with Serbia, which still claims Kosovo as part of its territory.
Kosovo President Hashim Thaci complained on Facebook that the enlargement strategy does not provide Kosovo with any clarity about its European future.
“For well-known political reasons, unfortunately, this document has failed to present a perspective of inclusive and equal membership for all countries in the region. In particular, this strategy has failed to provide clarity for Kosovo's EU membership,” he said.
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