Originally posted by Risto the Great
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No problem. I have a bunch of documents scattered on my computer. But I'll e-mail you 3 pdfs I can find quickly. The first quotes are from an April 1992 CIA secret file released in 2013. It called for UN peacekeeping troops in Macedonia and other Balkan countries.
There is a serious danger of military conflict spilling over Yugoslavia's borders. This expansion could erupt with little or no additional warning:
- There is a high likelihood of military clashes between the ethnic
Albanian majority in Kosovo and Serbian forces; this would prompt
Albanian involvement.
" There is some chance that Macedonia's drive for independence will cause Serbia, Bulgaria, and Albania to reassert historical territorial claims and lead to clashes with Greece.
" There is only a slight chance of war between Hungary and Serbia over
the ethnic Hungarians in Vojvodina, but renewed Croat-Serb fighting
could prompt border incidents.
- There is a high likelihood of military clashes between the ethnic
Albanian majority in Kosovo and Serbian forces; this would prompt
Albanian involvement.
" There is some chance that Macedonia's drive for independence will cause Serbia, Bulgaria, and Albania to reassert historical territorial claims and lead to clashes with Greece.
" There is only a slight chance of war between Hungary and Serbia over
the ethnic Hungarians in Vojvodina, but renewed Croat-Serb fighting
could prompt border incidents.
At least four independent states are emerging from the ruins of Yugoslavia: are relatively stable Slovenia; a war-torn, embittered Croatia; an enlarged but weakened and isolated Serbia; and a separate Macedonia, threatened by economic weakness and Serbian, Greek, Bulgarian and Albanian neighbors.
Greece is increasingly agitated about Skopje's presumed
threat to Greek Macedonia. Greek rhetoric,
demonstrations, troop movements to the border, and
harassment of cross-border trade have heightened
tensions and invite overreactions by Macedonians.
threat to Greek Macedonia. Greek rhetoric,
demonstrations, troop movements to the border, and
harassment of cross-border trade have heightened
tensions and invite overreactions by Macedonians.
Conflict between Serbia and Bulgaria, which have historical claims on parts of Macedonia and are openly competing for influence of Skopje, is also possible but less likely...Bulgaria's resolve to stay out of a conflict would weaken quickly, if Serbia reasserts its territorial claims or forcibly incorporates parts of Macedonia.
Serbia and Greece are likely to pursue their common interests against Macedonia and Albania.
Macedonia's military is little more than a police force. Almost completely disarmed when federal forces withdrew in 1992, the Macedonian armed fores would have trouble coping with internal ethnic unrest and could not oppose Yugoslav cross-border operations.
Macedonia, by contrast, is perceived by all but Greece and
Serbia to be a separate, albeit as-yet unrecognized state. Any
Serbian use of force against Macedonia would be a clear case of
aggression. The greatest danger to Macedonia, however, comes from
within.
-- The removal of President Gligorov almost certainly
would lead to polarization between the extreme
Macedonian nationalists and the republic's one-third
ethnic Albanian population.
-- Gligorov's continued survival in power, however,
appears to be due less to his government's actual
authority than to the lack of a well-organized
opposition. This power vacuum is extremely dangerous
for a state riddled with ethnic tensions and
surrounded by neighbors that are at best ambivalent
(Bulgaria and Albania)--or at worst hostile (Serbia
and Greece)--to Macedonia's continued independence.
The situation is beginning to appear reminiscent of
the Izetbegovic government in Bosnia just before the
outbreak of fighting there. However, the deployment
of a UN peacekeeping battalion to Macedonia--now being
arranged--could hel to avert intervention from Serbia
or Greece.
Serbia to be a separate, albeit as-yet unrecognized state. Any
Serbian use of force against Macedonia would be a clear case of
aggression. The greatest danger to Macedonia, however, comes from
within.
-- The removal of President Gligorov almost certainly
would lead to polarization between the extreme
Macedonian nationalists and the republic's one-third
ethnic Albanian population.
-- Gligorov's continued survival in power, however,
appears to be due less to his government's actual
authority than to the lack of a well-organized
opposition. This power vacuum is extremely dangerous
for a state riddled with ethnic tensions and
surrounded by neighbors that are at best ambivalent
(Bulgaria and Albania)--or at worst hostile (Serbia
and Greece)--to Macedonia's continued independence.
The situation is beginning to appear reminiscent of
the Izetbegovic government in Bosnia just before the
outbreak of fighting there. However, the deployment
of a UN peacekeeping battalion to Macedonia--now being
arranged--could hel to avert intervention from Serbia
or Greece.
It was these and other US reports and intelligence that made the push for a UN peacekeeping force in Macedonia.
I will also say that while the US wasn't right about everything (1/3 Albanian minority), these CIA reports were for the most part pretty accurate in their understanding, observation and analysis of the situation.
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