COVID-19 Pandemic

[Vangelovski]

I collated the data below (I know a lot of Americans like to compare the US with the "democratic socialist" utopia's in Scandanavia). Data is from www.worldometers.info/coronavirus and based on the John Hopkins Hospital tracker and the WHO.

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Risto the Great

They quote 3000 deaths but can't keep up with the urn requirements for the cremations closer to 100,000.

Looking at the number from the WHO, around 3-5 million people die of flu every year (not to mention all of the other viruses going around). If these numbers don't overwhelm health systems, why are less than 100,000 coronavirus hospitalisations worldwide doing it? The maths just doesn't add up on this.

[Gocka]

Originally Posted by Vangelovski

Looking at the number from the WHO, around 3-5 million people die of flu every year (not to mention all of the other viruses going around). If these numbers don't overwhelm health systems, why are less than 100,000 coronavirus hospitalisations worldwide doing it? The maths just doesn't add up on this.

Its 3 to 5 million infections not deaths annually. Deaths are estimated at between 250k to 500k per year globally. The vast majority of those deaths are in third world countries in Africa and Asia so no one takes notice. See this for a breakdown per country.

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/...ia/by-country/

Notice the rate per 100k is almost 20x higher in most of Africa than the developed world.

I think the problem is how many people how localized and how fast. Patients spend weeks in ICU and on ventilators, using up resources fast. If the USA hits the lowest end of its projections it will see 5x the average flu deaths it sees in a whole year in a matter of a month. At the upper end as much as 10x in only a few weeks and this is with our largest population centers largely at home.

The virus is new no one has immunity yet. You need to get it to develop immunity. Once immune you cant spread it as easily. Right now everyone can get it and spread it. No vaccine no therapeutics no immunity. Without any measures the death toll will likely be much higher.

Not to mention flu deaths are largely estimated and fluctuate widely from season to season and over many months. Deaths from covid are probably also being underestimated. We know infections are widely out of wack, likely multiples higher than reported cases.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ed/ar-BB122vvc

It's all happening quickly I'm sure in months to come we will have a much better understanding. The Chinese as usual are a bunch of liars, who knows the real death toll, if they even bothered to count. They did take extreme measures but 3000 is a joke.

[Risto the Great]

One factor in their (Chinese) favour is they are not obese. I believe I heard some scientist report that 45% of everyone over 40 years of age in USA is obese. They said it was a variable that would distinguish USA from China in relation to the number of deaths.

Australians are just as fat.

Hopefully people might start looking after themselves.

[Vangelovski]

Originally Posted by Gocka

Its 3 to 5 million infections not deaths annually. Deaths are estimated at between 250k to 500k per year globally. The vast majority of those deaths are in third world countries in Africa and Asia so no one takes notice. See this for a breakdown per country.

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/...ia/by-country/

Notice the rate per 100k is almost 20x higher in most of Africa than the developed world.

I think the problem is how many people how localized and how fast. Patients spend weeks in ICU and on ventilators, using up resources fast. If the USA hits the lowest end of its projections it will see 5x the average flu deaths it sees in a whole year in a matter of a month. At the upper end as much as 10x in only a few weeks and this is with our largest population centers largely at home.

The virus is new no one has immunity yet. You need to get it to develop immunity. Once immune you cant spread it as easily. Right now everyone can get it and spread it. No vaccine no therapeutics no immunity. Without any measures the death toll will likely be much higher.

Not to mention flu deaths are largely estimated and fluctuate widely from season to season and over many months. Deaths from covid are probably also being underestimated. We know infections are widely out of wack, likely multiples higher than reported cases.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ed/ar-BB122vvc

It's all happening quickly I'm sure in months to come we will have a much better understanding. The Chinese as usual are a bunch of liars, who knows the real death toll, if they even bothered to count. They did take extreme measures but 3000 is a joke.

Sorry, its 3-5 million seriously ill annually (meaning they most probably require hospitalisation). Billions of people get the flu every year, they just don't test and track.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-s...enza-(seasonal)

I wouldn't rely too much on the modelling. Its nothing more than extrapolated assumptions.

[Carlin]

Video footage shows Indian health workers spraying disinfectant on a group of migrant workers, amid fears that a large scale movement of people from cities to the countryside risks spreading the coronavirus widely. The prime minister, Narendra Modi, has ordered the country's 1.3 billion people to remain indoors until 15 April, saying that was the only hope to stop the pandemic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgYxy3Py6V0

[Carlin]

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said there are now 102,863 coronavirus cases in the state. More than 14,000 patients are currently hospitalized.

So far, 2,935 people have died in the state — that's up from 2,373, Cuomo said. "Highest single increase in the number of deaths since we started," Cuomo said.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...ntl/index.html

[Gocka]

What is sobering to me is looking at how in Italy although it seems the numbers aren't growing anymore, they have hit a plateau and stayed there for at least a week now. The scary thing though is that the plateau is at a very high point. New infections are stuck in the 4000's and deaths around the 700 to 800 mark daily. Its been like this for quite some time and right now there are no signals that the numbers will drop as fast as they increased. I worry that we will see weeks of 700 600 500 deaths daily.

Spain is on course to be worse than Italy, the USA is is on pace to be worse than both.

[Carlin]

Sobering and shocking.



https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

[Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Gocka

What is sobering to me is looking at how in Italy although it seems the numbers aren't growing anymore, they have hit a plateau and stayed there for at least a week now. The scary thing though is that the plateau is at a very high point. New infections are stuck in the 4000's and deaths around the 700 to 800 mark daily. Its been like this for quite some time and right now there are no signals that the numbers will drop as fast as they increased. I worry that we will see weeks of 700 600 500 deaths daily.

Spain is on course to be worse than Italy, the USA is is on pace to be worse than both.

...and apparently the Chinese have contained the problem.

When we reach the other side of this pandemic it will be interesting to see whether the cure was far deadlier than the disease... I’m thinking that politicians all over the world have fucked up the global economy so badly that the death toll of people taking their own lives and the explosion of other stress related illnesses, mental health issues, substance abuse and domestic violence will contribute to a much higher death toll globally than this virus ever could.