Macedonia and the European Union

[rujnovino]

Originally Posted by Risto the Great

Here is something I was reading whilst in China in relation to their new foreign aid policy:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion...t_12374296.htm

Money clearly exists out there WITHOUT a requirement to prostitute our identity it would seem. But CT seems to like it EU style.

I think the EU's future is clearly uncertain, but it's hardly a "doomed" organization. This story is going to play out for years. In the meantime, Macedonia's government should definitely work to implement economic and judicial reforms suggested by an EU accession process, not because the EU wants them to, but because it will actually develop and strengthen Macedonia's economy, and improve stability and the nation's prospects, regardless of whether or not they are ever members.

The economic woes in places like Greece are due to a combination of the senior partners being asleep at the switch in monitoring what was going on, and the junior partner simply lying through its teeth for 20 years. I am fairly sure that compliance with EU financial regulations will be better monitored for now on, since the 2008 meltdown, and that cheating the system will not be so easy.

However, this idea about Chinese foreign aid being without strings attached is very unconvincing! I think all countries attach strings to their foreign aid, why would China be any different? It seems that foreign aid relationships tend be chronic in nature, and never achieve the goal of actually pulling a country out of poverty, without a successful economic development plan.

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but China's most lucrative international economic relationships involve taking massive amounts of resources from resource-rich countries, and returning cheap manufactured goods in return, which is achieved through its massive labor pool, and its utter lack of human rights, minority rights, worker's rights and environmental protections.

Isn't it true that Macedonia has no such resources to offer the benevolent Emperors in Beijing? Does it have a significant market to purchase such goods with on a large scale? Does it have any other valuable connections to China - geographically, politically, culturally?

I've heard a little bit about a factory built in one of Gruevski's "tax-free zones" by Haier, and a few other China-related initiatives. I suppose the idea is that Chinese foreign investment would create badly needed manufacturing jobs in Macedonia. But if that's the case, and Macedonia wants to build an export based economy on relatively low labor costs, the countries it will be exporting to will all be EU countries, won't they?

[Risto the Great]

rujnovino, reasonable points.
You do tend to infer a lot from my statements and it appears you have read too much into my statement. I said the Macedonian identity would not have to be on the table for support from countries such as China.

I don't think anyone is naive enough to suggest aid comes with no strings attached. In this instance, I believe strings would be more forward looking and less devastating to the Macedonian identity at this bleak time.

Your non-justification for China to enter into Macedonia equally applies to the EU and USA. The USA (and EU) keeps sniffing around for some reason.

I see a golden opportunity for Macedonia, a developing European nation, to focus on the BRICS economies by offering a pathway to Europe without having to deal with the internal politics of the EU.

Originally Posted by rujnovino

Macedonia's government should definitely work to implement economic and judicial reforms suggested by an EU accession process, not because the EU wants them to, but because it will actually develop and strengthen Macedonia's economy, and improve stability and the nation's prospects, regardless of whether or not they are ever members.

I agree with you. But I will never agree with the EU when it insists Macedonia MUST negotiate its identity. Some seek to "cherry pick" the EU requirements. I can't see anything other than the promise of vague economic benefits of debatable long term significance being inextricably linked with an attack on the Macedonian identity.

[George S.]

If the eu is such a country why doesn't serbia & bosnia get accepted??Why wait for such a long time.Also if macedonia satisfies virtually everything apart on the name because it is imposed as an additional requirement.Now if the eu took matters into it's own hands & told greece to bugger off with their silly requirements on the name & admit macedonia to the eu.What would happen greece would get all scared & start to respect it's neighbours a bit more.

[George S.]

Recently i heard on the radio that china is buying the debts of the defaulting countries.What will it mean,is it a bail out or is it a buy out.The chinese are laghing all the way to the bank because they will end up owning everything.(probably long term the whole of europe)Don't forget allready the chinese own the us debt i think 5or6 trillion of the 14 trillion.Eventually they are going to own everything.UIn a few years time the eu will be so debt ridden that it will fade away.Allready the eu currency is slipping away as confidence falls.

[indigen]

Originally Posted by Onur

It`s a marketing strategy to fool poor people`s mind, just like 80`s US movies where you can only see playboy girls in bikinis in Miami.

Yeah, Onur, but who is doing the marketing and for what purpose?

[indigen]

Originally Posted by Currency Trader

Indigen, I asked you a couple of questions before on your previous posting in regards to EU economics and integration, which you either missed or decided to ignore. Shall we take those first?

Since you try to present yourself as some economic guru, why don't you do your own research? Article was by Sam Vaknin, former dpmne government economic advisor and a Guru to Gruevski himself, and you should contact him yourself (via emai) if you want further explanations!

Indigen previously said/posted:

Whoever wrote the above passage has missed one big point in all this. Before you can even become a member, the country will have to show some significant readiness and transformation which will be closely inspected that it can handle all or most areas as required. That means each candidate will have to demonstrate that it can absorb or handle 84,000 pages of acquis communautaire, environmental, sanitation or labour rules per EU. This process is lengthy and can take years, if not a full decade before the country is close to become a member. If all goes as it goes now, Macedonia will probably score well on these areas.

As for the argument that Macedonia’s industries will crumble in the face of European competition, which industries is the author talking about?

You can ask SV about the specifics yourself but, IMO, Macedonian manufacturing industry is mostly in food processing, clothing and textiles and some elements of light manufacturing, mining and steel production. Most of them are sheltered in one way or another and should protection be removed and EU standards applied, they could not compete with either more efficient EU competitors or cheaper imports allowed into the EU as part of its trade agreements with the likes of China, India and other low labour cost economies (states or economic blocks).

Is the author suggesting that foreign competition will establish production inside Macedonia and thus knock-out domestic industries?

I don't think so.

Or is the author suggesting something else? Can you take his seat to answer these questions?

See above.

How did Bulgarian, Romanian, Slovenian, Greek industries handle European competition?

None of them should be compared (or can compare) to RM in political historical terms or in economic development. Bulgaria, Romania and Greece, having been sovereign states for a long time with developed national perspective and policies, possessed national economic assets and infrastructure only independent national sovereign states can posses. They also benefit/ed from having a much larger population and in being strategic assets of the superpowers during the Cold War, where they had a lot of "free" (at the price of political submission) investments in infrastructure projects such as roads, highways, railways, airports and seaports, amongst other trade benefits and assistance. As for Slovenia, it also can not be compared to Macedonia as it was (and IS) in a different economic and political stage of development from the outset as well as benefiting tremendously by the fact of having an advantageous economic and political position during SFRJ days.

The above passage does not prove that Macedonia will not benefit economically from EU.

It clearly states that it will do badly from full membership at this time or in the near future and that IT WILL DO MUCH BETTER OUTSIDE THE EU ("For the time being, it is better off as it is"). If you want details, seek them yourself from SV or other economic experts.

[indigen]

Originally Posted by rujnovino

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but China's most lucrative international economic relationships involve taking massive amounts of resources from resource-rich countries, and returning cheap manufactured goods in return

I don't see Australia complaining about China taking massive amounts of resources, do you? I am also not sure that it is taking massive amounts of cheap resources from the USA, it biggest economic trading partner, if I am not mistaken.

Secondly, IMO, the biggest reason for the economic boom in China is because Western manufactures have decided to go there due to cheap labour costs and other opportunities the Chinese provided for them in this age of Globalisation.

which is achieved through its massive labor pool, and its utter lack of human rights, minority rights, worker's rights and environmental protections.

Human rights is a debatable concept and I am sure the Chinese probably would prefer their overall current position than what they had under colonial or feudal rule as well as compared to that of most of the developing world, e.g. "democratic" India, Bangladesh and Pakistan!

Secondly, when viewed objectively, I think they generally have a better track record on minority rights than most of the "developed" world countries do.

Lastly, I think they are going to be leaders in clean energy and are now taking a keen interest in environmental issues. As for labour rights, I am not sure they are the worst but there are reports of sections of the labour force being terribly exploited (mostly for the benefit of western manufactures, as happens in Mexico and other developing countries) and I hear that the Chinese want to remedy this also but time will tell whether it is all just empty promises or progress.

[Risto the Great]

A very common wage for the average worker in China seems to be about $300 - $400 per month. There has been very strong pressure for wage increases and 30% increases have not been uncommon lately.

I can't stress how generally nice the people are and how industrious they seem to be.

[indigen]

Originally Posted by Risto the Great

A very common wage for the average worker in China seems to be about $300 - $400 per month. There has been very strong pressure for wage increases and 30% increases have not been uncommon lately.

I can't stress how generally nice the people are and how industrious they seem to be.

The Chinese people I have met and known in Australia are generally very nice and warm and also industrious but I don't want to generalise too much as I am sure there also a few (though a small minority), as in all societies, who don't fit that description (either in Australia or back in China).

Secondly, I think China would have a two-tiered economy and thus should have varied wage levels. The rural and less developed (outside the coastal economic development zones) parts of China still have hundreds of millions of possible recruits for labour-intensive industries to relocate to if necessary without leaving China and at the same time still keeping all the other benefits the country offers to industrial manufacturers of the world.

Lastly, the following news report on Macedonian minimum wages campaign for Macedonian workers might shed some light on the state of the clothing industry in RM:



Минимална плата од 160 евра ќе го доведе текстилот до колапс

Минимална плата од 160 евра ќе го доведе текстилот до колапс. Текстилниот бизнис не се сложува со висината на законски најниска плата за работниците. Го поздравуваат барањето на Синдикатот, но велат дека изедначен минималец за сите сектори ќе ги зголеми трошоците.
[...]

http://www.kanal5.com.mk/default.asp...&eventId=74558

This would be one sector to go under first should there be EU minimum wages applied to it, IMO!

[Belomorec]

Yeah see the thing is that just for the very fact that anyone needs to discuss a country joining the EU makes me think the whole thing is a sham and a waste of time.

Greece is in the EU: look at their economic situation.

Bulgaria is too. Look at their inflation.

Ditto for Romania. Portugal. Ireland.


The false economy that a few billionaires created in order to rule the world is not something Macedonia should be part of. Simple as that.