Macedonia and the European Union

[George S.]

Well mk there you have it if you are macedonian just don't vote for the liberal party.
Also there must be rules & laws on antidiscrimination laws .Couldn't these people like in australia pursue this racist person.??

[George S.]

What fat racist pig this guy must be.I wonder if the greek community is still behind him because they are brainwashed nazi people.

[Makedonska_Kafana]

Couldn't these people like in australia pursue this racist person.??

No, this is strictly up to the Liberal government leader, Canadian taxpayers and the voters. The, ONLY reason he was re-elected again is that his riding is Chinese and no one understands Greek.

[George S.]

So canada doesn't have anti discrimination laws based on race.??Australia has anti discrimination laws & jim would be fined & booted out by his party.

[Makedonska_Kafana]

So canada doesn't have anti discrimination laws based on race.??

BINGO, we sure do and plan on using them!

>>>>> Karygiannis Karygiannis Karygiannis (Greek Klan)

[George S.]

Normalno ne sum "violent" covek .Ako ne mozit nisto treba edno dobro jako cukajne za takvi luge.
It stands to reason that this guy has insulted our race that we are nothing but skopiajans.This clown jim doesn't even show due respect of who we are.What stupid a clown he is.

[Risto the Great]

RtG

Before I answer your statements, which you seem to refer my name to it, I think you have a whole host of unanswered questions from your previous claims.


Here are the unanswered questions:

1. How much is the EU debt for Macedonia?

2. What kind of debt are you referring to?

3. For what specific reasons will the foreign debt triple?

4. How did you arrive to a ”tripling” of debt - Do you have an economic model?

5. Every country has some form of debt on their national balance sheets, so WHY should Macedonia not have any debt, even if the debt is in EUR?

6. Anybody can post a chart, but what do you actually UNDERSTAND from the Bulgarian chart that you like?

7. What specifically has EU created for Bulgaria that you call "pretty picture of the magic"?

8. Which labour laws would make Macedonia less competitive if they were to join EU?

9. Which EU regulations would make Macedonia less flexible that you are referring to?


Added question:

10. In what way has the economic potentials (regarding EU) been vague as communicated by Macedonian government officials?




.

off the cuff:

1. How much is the EU debt for Macedonia?
Right now? Is that relevant as compared to what it will be? Here, take a look at countries that "got a leg up" on the EU bandwagon:


Please advise how much benefit the extra debt translated into genuine good times and economic prosperity for the likes of Romania & Bulgaria.

2. What kind of debt are you referring to?
External debt. But i guess I am talking about bad debt as opposed to good debt. Not much good debt around.

3. For what specific reasons will the foreign debt triple?
Simple trend analysis based on research contained in graphs like that of the above. Can you guess precisely when the debt increased threefold?

4. How did you arrive to a ”tripling” of debt - Do you have an economic model?Ummm, yes. Take a look.

5. Every country has some form of debt on their national balance sheets, so WHY should Macedonia not have any debt, even if the debt is in EUR?
I have an acquaintance who draws down money against his credit cards to pay for whores. Is that what you mean? That all debt is good no matter the purpose? Call me old fashioned, I would like to know what it is for first .... and whether I might catch some diseases.

6. Anybody can post a chart, but what do you actually UNDERSTAND from the Bulgarian chart that you like? Big red line have erection. Poor Bulgarian still poor.

7. What specifically has EU created for Bulgaria that you call "pretty picture of the magic"?
I think it is magical when you can triple debt and have little to show for it. A lot like my acquaintance who borrows money for whores. Though rumour has it he might actually have something to show for it .... now.

8. Which labour laws would make Macedonia less competitive if they were to join EU?
Who knows? Macedonia is not even allowed to protect its industries right now and it is not even a member! That sounds awful. Who knows how creative some of these laws could be to completely eradicate the Macedonian identity. Notwithstanding this, the Romanian example in a separate thread makes it clear that nothing much will change. How much extra debt does Macedonia deserve for nothing changing?

9. Which EU regulations would make Macedonia less flexible that you are referring to?
I really like the one about not being able to protect Macedonia's own industries. Sure, I know you will say "you win some, you lose some" but c'mon CT .... It shouldn't have to mean losing Macedonian industries, particularly if they are culturally significant. Would you even care about that? Who should care about that CT? My guess is that the EU does not care.


Added question:

10. In what way has the economic potentials (regarding EU) been vague as communicated by Macedonian government officials?
Humour me with this mate. In what way have any EU economic potentials been enunciated and used as a tool for fuelling the hope of Macedonians. What did Gruevski mean when he prompted cheers for a "European Macedonia" at a pre-election gathering? God (& the masons lol) only knows I would imagine.

I am yet to know of anything promised by the EU for Macedonia upon its entry into the EU. You seem to know a whole lot more about what WILL happen, let me in your secrets mate.

[Pelister]

Should'nt the question (for mine) be why are E.U countries going bankrupt, and how is that possible? Why is the E>U demanding that the Macedonians change their name? I am still waiting to see something ... anything, that shows that being a member of the EU will bring unbridled prosperity - or do we have to listen to more shite from Currency Trader?

[Dzog]

Sorry to weigh in so late in the debate but the absolute value of any type of debt serves no comparative value. You need to view it as a percentage of GDP (still crude, but probably the best we've got) to see whether "value" is added (i.e. is an increased debt burden conducive to increased productivity?).

External debt is probably not the best indicator we should be looking at, as even stable and productive economies (like Australia) exhibit seemingly high levels of external debt. The more important debt you want to look at is Public Debt (or Government Debt) as a percentage of GDP. It is a good indicator of the sustainability of a government's monetary policy as it measures ONLY government debt and not private sector debt. Looking at some of the top 10 countries with Public Debt as a ratio to GDP (Greece, Iceland, Italy) you can see why this metric is justified.

Macedonia's Public Debt is 34% of its GDP, while Romania is 30% and Bulgaria 16%. Interpret this as you will, but I wouldn't say that Bulgaria or Romania are at debt levels dangerously higher than Macedonia.

Ultimately, there is no problem with a country or an individual or a business taking on debt as long as it is utilised to enhance the productivity of these entities. The bottom line is that Macedonia has to become more productive by its own devices. If it doesn't and remains out of the EU, it will stagnate and keep falling behind. If it doesn't as part of the EU, it will follow Greece into oblivion. In which case, at least Der Vaterland will be there to bail them out

[Risto the Great]

Do you think any bailout conditions from "Der Vaterland" will be favourable Dzog?
Dzog, you never mentioned what would happen if Macedonia becomes more productive and remains outside of the EU. I would like to pursue this as a seemingly alternate reality for zombified Macedonians.

Why is external debt such a bad measure Dzog? Surely it identifies how "beholding" a nation is to outside organisations and the higher it is, the more beholding the nation is. At what stage will the external debt become so crushing that it hinders economic growth in the country that it was supposed to be helping?

[Dzog]

Do you think any bailout conditions from "Der Vaterland" will be favourable Dzog?

My comment about the bailout was tongue-in-cheek. Conditions around a bailout are never ideal. However, one could argue that given an alternative of bankruptcy, bailout (regardless of the terms) is more favourable. If you've come to the point of requiring bailout you're to far up shit creek to care about what you'll smell like when and, more importantly if, you get out.

Dzog, you never mentioned what would happen if Macedonia becomes more productive and remains outside of the EU. I would like to pursue this as a seemingly alternate reality for zombified Macedonians.

Assuming that Macedonia becomes more productive and responsible, I am confident that there will be some benefit of being part of the EU. HOWEVER, I will qualify this with a few critical issues:

1. We all know Macedonia's into the EU will come with non-economic implications. Are these concessions worth it?

2. When will this benefit permeate? Put another way, if the economy is doing well on its own, why disturb it with a benefit that may or may not be seen? (this is tied into point 3 below)

3. Will there be any detriment to an already strong and developing economy (remember we're assuming that Macedonia has gotten it's act together)? Although perceived "shocks" upon EU accession have been largely false or very short-lived, we cannot underestimate the changes that will have to occur once in the EU (even before the Euro is adopted).

Why is external debt such a bad measure Dzog? Surely it identifies how "beholding" a nation is to outside organisations and the higher it is, the more beholding the nation is. At what stage will the external debt become so crushing that it hinders economic growth in the country that it was supposed to be helping?

I never said external debt to GDP was a "bad" measure. If anything, external debt to GDP is a better measure of a country's debt situation as it includes all debts owned to foreign creditors. I just don't think it is the best measure when comparing fiscal responsibility because it also depends so much more on the economic context of the nation's economy. That's not to say that public debt can be taken in isolation - it's just that public debt ratios seem to be more aligned with what is actually happening.To illustrate my point, let's compare both external and public debt between one of the world's most stable economies, Switzerland, and one of the world's least stable economies, Greece.

External Debt to GDP Ratio in 2010
Switzerland - 364%
Greece - 165%
On the numbers alone, this suggests that Greece is in a more debt sustainable position. Clearly incorrect.

Public Debt to GDP Ratio in 2010
Switzerland - 38%
Greece - 142%
On the numbers alone, this suggests that Switzerland is in a more debt sustainable position. More plausible.

Sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_public_debt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

While it is nice and easy to draw conclusions from the numbers alone, deeper analysis is required to make concrete assumptions. You will need to look at things like trends, economic composition, current/capital balances, export/import balances, etc to be able to say with certainty which country is safer than the other. Luckily we have Moody's to do all this work for us! (See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ra...pa_05-2011.svg)


Lastly, economists struggle to quantify what a debt sustainable level is. Obviously, it points to a nation's ability to repay its debts when they fall due. What this is terms of GDP....who knows? I mean, what is more sustainable? A country that has a had a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 600% for 30 years or a country that has had a Debt-to-GDP Ratio rise from 20% to 100% in the past 3 years? I guess it really depends.

[Volk]

The whole western capitalistic system is a giant pyramid scheme designed to make the to even richer, whilst the bottom forever indebted.

It will crumble within this decade and so to will the false ideals it represents. EU and US have started sinking and there is no way out.

[Risto the Great]

My comment about the bailout was tongue-in-cheek. Conditions around a bailout are never ideal. However, one could argue that given an alternative of bankruptcy, bailout (regardless of the terms) is more favourable. If you've come to the point of requiring bailout you're to far up shit creek to care about what you'll smell like when and, more importantly if, you get out.

Bankruptcy vs Bailout is an interesting topic. I would contend a bailout in a modern context suggests forgiving debts or creating further debts in order to fully enslave a nation to its lenders. Bankruptcy for a sovereign nation would hurt but it also provides a clean slate. I am not convinced bankruptcy is worse than a bailout particularly when starting from such modest levels as Macedonia obviously is.

I don't think we disagree on a great deal of the other issues you have discussed.

cheers

[Risto the Great]

I will also add that I believe a bailout necessitated from artificial (as opposed to organic) growth via EU entry would be far more likely than any potential for bankruptcy whilst remaining outside of the EU.

[Risto the Great]

Country Trader (well done Julie btw), you seemed hell-bent on a response from me. Why so quiet?