Russia, Ukraine and the West

[Carlin]

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1667885086392430592?cxt=HHwWgMC9ycapwqUuAAAA

M. Valtersson

NEWS UPDATE JUNE 11

"Lots of rumours, but few new facts. Among russian Telegram channels, many says that Neskuchne is retaken and Blahodatne cut off. But there are not much sound of fighting in the area so the claims seems dubious, since offensives often are very noisy.

Proukrainians celebrate the conquest of Neskuchne (1), Blahodatne (2) and the western settlement of Levadne. I understand them since it's proof of some success after a week of counteroffensive. But I wouldn't cheer to much since Blahodatne and Neskuchne are outside the First russian defenceline, low in a river valley. With today's frontline neither Russia nor Ukraine can post many soldiers in these two settlements.

Levadne is an even smaller fish to fry. On the map it looks like a village, but it is really a farm, also laying outside and below the Russian defenceline. The RuAF might retake the lost settlements or at least make it very costly for the UkrAF to keep them. Still it's a success, albeit small, for the Ukrainian side."

[Vangelovski]

Reports (still to be confirmed) of more towns having been liberated south of Velika Novosilka.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1667988196091633664?cxt=HHwWgICx2amb8aUuAAAA

[Vangelovski]

An easy to follow overview of what has been reported over the past 48 hours

https://youtu.be/EY5WJJasZKM

Interesting (if not at all surprising) that the Ukrainians have been able to liberate more territory in a week than the Russians were able to capture in four months.

For the latest updates, video here:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=idiRrvnVw48

[Phoenix]

As expected, the Ukrainians are moving fast. Still to be confirmed but a few more towns have been added to the list.

Why was the expectation that the Ukrainians were going to move fast?

The current iteration of the Ukrainian army/military is at about version 2.5.
Their best NATO trained soldiers were mostly destroyed 12 months ago.
The current Ukrainian force is possibly the least cohesive it has been at anytime since hostilities started.

The Ukrainians have been reduced to a ragtag fighting force, cobbled together out of sheer desperation, many recruits possessing minimal training, the disjuncture created by the use of disparate weapons systems, lacking the logistical control to sustain their requirements and most probably devoid of the ability to coordinate the big arrow manoeuvre warfare required to continually pressure the Russians.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1667868077436928001?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Compare this to Russia's "achievement" of four towns in total over its four month winter offensive that included Bakhmut. Which they had been trying to capture since February last year.

This conflict has shown time and time again that it can be premature for Ukraine to claim victory over disputed villages and regions on a map because this is the result of the 2 seperate strategies of the 2 sides.

Ukraine must demonstrate advances of some sort, anything will do...even when villages are still kilometres from the first Russian defensive lines...this is Ukraines lifeblood and guarantee of ongoing Western support to show some sort of "victory", regardless of how hollow or inconsequential it is.

It is a brutal and brainless circular strategy that Ukraine has employed, the more young men they throw in the meat-grinder, the more support they get from the West, their only problem is that they are running out of young men to throw into the grinding machine.

Meanwhile the Russian strategy has remained unchanged from what prompted Putin to cross the border and start the SMO - the denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine.

Where the possession of land is the lifeblood of Ukraine, for the Russians it is merely about engaging Ukrainian forces and wiping them out.
If Ukraine just sits back and willingly concedes territory the Russians just move and fill the void until Ukraine reacts.

The Russians don't need to advance quickly or to hold too much territory, the onus is always on Ukraine to defend or recapture.
The Russians just want to bait the Ukrainians into engagement where their vastly numeric advantage in artillery pieces comes into play, together with the best in class air defence systems and world leading electronic warfare capability are all used in devastating fashion to achieve their goals of the denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine.

Each Russian "retreat" is viewed with unbridled enthusiasm by the Ukrainian side and their cheerleaders because the Ukrainians are desperate to show progress of any type...any progress of any type is rewarded by more western donations.

The Russians merely withdraw to a previously established defensive position that minimises the unnecessary loss of men and equipment and from a strong defensive posture they merely launch another devastating wave of attack on the Ukrainians.

At the very least this is a war of military industrial attrition...on one side you have the Ukrainians who are dependent 100% on the fickle resolve of the Western world and they are fighting against a side with 100% control over a massive indigenous military industrial capacity and who view western involvement and the backing of Ukraine as an existential threat.

My money is on Russia simply because the minutiae of battlefield ebb and flow smacks of not being able to see the forest for the trees or the devil is in the details...these are all merely distractions from the inevitable destruction of the Ukrainian leadership and military.

[Vangelovski]

why was the expectation that the ukrainians were going to move fast?

The current iteration of the ukrainian army/military is at about version 2.5.
Their best nato trained soldiers were mostly destroyed 12 months ago.
The current ukrainian force is possibly the least cohesive it has been at anytime since hostilities started.

The ukrainians have been reduced to a ragtag fighting force, cobbled together out of sheer desperation, many recruits possessing minimal training, the disjuncture created by the use of disparate weapons systems, lacking the logistical control to sustain their requirements and most probably devoid of the ability to coordinate the big arrow manoeuvre warfare required to continually pressure the russians.

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1667868077436928001?ref_src=twsrc%5egoogle%7ctwcamp%5eserp%7ctwgr%5etweet

this conflict has shown time and time again that it can be premature for ukraine to claim victory over disputed villages and regions on a map because this is the result of the 2 seperate strategies of the 2 sides.

Ukraine must demonstrate advances of some sort, anything will do...even when villages are still kilometres from the first russian defensive lines...this is ukraines lifeblood and guarantee of ongoing western support to show some sort of "victory", regardless of how hollow or inconsequential it is.

It is a brutal and brainless circular strategy that ukraine has employed, the more young men they throw in the meat-grinder, the more support they get from the west, their only problem is that they are running out of young men to throw into the grinding machine.

Meanwhile the russian strategy has remained unchanged from what prompted putin to cross the border and start the smo - the denazification and demilitarisation of ukraine.

Where the possession of land is the lifeblood of ukraine, for the russians it is merely about engaging ukrainian forces and wiping them out.
If ukraine just sits back and willingly concedes territory the russians just move and fill the void until ukraine reacts.

The russians don't need to advance quickly or to hold too much territory, the onus is always on ukraine to defend or recapture.
The russians just want to bait the ukrainians into engagement where their vastly numeric advantage in artillery pieces comes into play, together with the best in class air defence systems and world leading electronic warfare capability are all used in devastating fashion to achieve their goals of the denazification and demilitarisation of ukraine.

Each russian "retreat" is viewed with unbridled enthusiasm by the ukrainian side and their cheerleaders because the ukrainians are desperate to show progress of any type...any progress of any type is rewarded by more western donations.

The russians merely withdraw to a previously established defensive position that minimises the unnecessary loss of men and equipment and from a strong defensive posture they merely launch another devastating wave of attack on the ukrainians.

At the very least this is a war of military industrial attrition...on one side you have the ukrainians who are dependent 100% on the fickle resolve of the western world and they are fighting against a side with 100% control over a massive indigenous military industrial capacity and who view western involvement and the backing of ukraine as an existential threat.

My money is on russia simply because the minutiae of battlefield ebb and flow smacks of not being able to see the forest for the trees or the devil is in the details...these are all merely distractions from the inevitable destruction of the ukrainian leadership and military.

Russia is indestructible this is v 569.4 of the Ukrainian army 3 billion Ukrainians have already been killed massive military industrial capacity

You're making the same old baseless points that I've already addressed multiple times and in the face of Russia having lost over 75,000 km sq since its spastically executed invasion in February last year. I'm not going to waste time arguing with a fool.

[Vangelovski]

Footage confirming the liberation of Makarivka.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668499450900238339/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1668499450900238339&currentTweetUser=NOELreports

[Carlin]

Counteroffensive update 17th June evening:

The massacre near Orekhovo - even experienced officers have never seen something like this.

The AFU went on the offensive in large numbers today. Ukrainian infantry moved forward with the support of NATO tanks and armored vehicles. After a heavy and long battle, within a day, this Ukrainian assault battalion was completely destroyed.

What happened today near Orekhovo was a Slaughter!!!

One gets the impression that NATO members gave Kiev a very "hard deadline". Time is limited, since the NATO summit is on July 11-12th.

Only one problem the Russian army is strong, but this should have not been an obstacle to the plans of Washington and London.

Tomorrow or the day after tomorrow there will be many new videos of damaged equipment. There is a lot of it - dozens of units.

But the worst thing is not even that. The worst thing is the loss of personnel. The AFU was not even able evacuate the wounded from there.

Experienced Russian officers are shocked by what they saw today. They have never seen such a massacre (according to them), and such a disregard for the life of soldiers, Ukrainian soldiers.

-> Russian positions have already been restored near Orekhov. It was all for nothing.

— Source Yurasumy & Sladkov

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1670157341474316289?cxt=HHwWgoCzmZrQy60uAAAA

[Carlin]

"Synthesizing all the reports from today, I think June 17, 2023 will be in the history books as a very black day for the Ukrainian armed forces."

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1670253073669955590?cxt=HHwWjIDR0caU960uAAAA

[Carlin]

"Everyone's been focused on Ukraine's attacks in the south, but Russia is really pushing out of Kreminna - VDV are on scene. It looks like they will try to liquidate the Siversk salient by cutting off the lines of supply over the Donets river."

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1671979473208770560?cxt=HHwWgIDUxZ2eiLQuAAAA

[Vangelovski]

Prigozhin threatening a coup?

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/chaos-as-russias-wagner-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-urges-armed-mutiny/news-story/f01334c4f6391292542106183827d98f

[Carlin]

Prigozhin threatening a coup?

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe...2106183827d98f

Breaking: It appears that the coup is unfolding at the moment.

“The first clash between advanced groups of the Wagner PMC, moving toward Moscow, and units of the Rosgvardia has just occurred on the Rostov-Moscow highway, near Kozachi Laheri”

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal

[Vangelovski]

Claims that Wagner is in control of Rostov and fighting in Voronezh.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006860.amp

It looks like Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine is turning into a "counter-terrorist operation" in Russia itself. The basketcase is staying true to itself.

[Carlin]

"Reports are coming in of successful negotiations with Wagner, faciliated by Belorussian President Lukashenko."

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1672654479550738433?cxt=HHwWgsCz2eKYu7YuAAAA

"Prigozhin says they are turning around and going back to Ukraine."

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1672660975995211776?cxt=HHwWgMDS_fSSvrYuAAAA

[Risto the Great]

And then it was nothing.
I wonder if there was some other strategy jointly employed here.

[Carlin]

And then it was nothing.
I wonder if there was some other strategy jointly employed here.

Apparently the Orchestra is now stationed in Belarus (as per the deal), very close to Kyiv.