Russia, Ukraine and the West

[Vangelovski]

I've noticed you've provided links to reports from the 'Institute for the Study of War' several times in this thread...Interestingly, Larry C. Johnson from Sonar21 calls the 'Institute for the Study of War' - the clown show!

https://sonar21.com/for-the-love-of-...sion-missiles/

In terms of the Kinburn Spit, I think what is really being discussed is the whole peninsula, not just the spit itself. The strategic value is immense as it is the East bank of the Dnipro. I guess the next few weeks will tell how that goes.

The value of ISW is that it tries to use primary sources and makes those sources available so you can judge their usefulness.

The use and availability of precision missiles is an interesting question. It's hard to know how many Russia started with and how many it's able to produce.

But here are some interesting numbers. In 270 days of war since Russia invaded in February, they have launched 4,700 precision (or guided) missiles. That is an average of 17 per day.
(https://www.thestatesman.com/world/r...503132723.html).

In comparison, during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US launched 19,948 precision missiles in only 40 days of war. That is an average of 499 per day.
(https://www.globalsecurity.org/milit..._30apr2003.pdf)

[Phoenix]

In terms of the Kinburn Spit, I think what is really being discussed is the whole peninsula, not just the spit itself. The strategic value is immense as it is the East bank of the Dnipro. I guess the next few weeks will tell how that goes.

The value of ISW is that it tries to use primary sources and makes those sources available so you can judge their usefulness.

The use and availability of precision missiles is an interesting question. It's hard to know how many Russia started with and how many it's able to produce.

But here are some interesting numbers. In 270 days of war since Russia invaded in February, they have launched 4,700 precision (or guided) missiles. That is an average of 17 per day.
(https://www.thestatesman.com/world/r...503132723.html).

In comparison, during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US launched 19,948 precision missiles in only 40 days of war. That is an average of 499 per day.
(https://www.globalsecurity.org/milit..._30apr2003.pdf)

I think your comparison between how many missiles have been fired by Russia in Ukraine Vs US in Iraq is a little misleading.
You’re making an Apples Vs Oranges argument as the two conflicts were played out using totally different strategies…

Up to this point Russia has maintained a relatively softly, softly campaign (to control limited territory) and have done it with essentially indigenous forces…on the other hand the USA conducted a brutal shock and awe strategy with allied support contributing to the overall firepower to quell an entire country and population

[Vangelovski]

Up to this point Russia has maintained a relatively softly, softly campaign (to control limited territory) and have done it with essentially indigenous forces…

We've been through this before. The "indigenous" forces as you call them only account for 34,000 men (according to the Military Balance, that is all the armed forces of Donetsk and Luhansk have). It is well established that Russia sent in approx. 200,000 men. It's not "essentially" an "indigenous" force.

And it's not a "softly, softly" campaign. The Russians have given it all they've got, going well beyond military targets and hitting civilian infrastructure. And Russia attempted to take at least half of Ukraine (at a minimum) with its southern, eastern and northern theatres.

I'm not sure who you're trying to delude here...but I'm thinking its yourself.

[Phoenix]

Interesting recent remarks from European Commission president - Ursula von Der Leyen.

Condemning Russia for committing war crimes, she noted that 100,000 Ukrainian officers (she probably meant personnel) have been killed since the start of the SMO.

What followed after this literal bombshell was a shitload of walking back from the EU and Ukrainian government that makes Karine Jean-Pierre and previously Jen Psaki at the White House look like rank amateurs.

Videos of the speech have been edited to delete the death toll statement, as well as various manic protests and counterclaims were made by Ukraine.

The 100K would be a horrific loss of life for the people of Ukraine to bear but what about those injured and unable to return to the battlefield?
Injured soldiers could account for another 3X the numbers of KIA, bringing the tally closer to 400K KIA and injured in 9 months of battle, absolutely unsustainable losses.

For a clearer perspective -

https://sonar21.com/has-ukraines-army-been-reduced-by-almost-50/

[Risto the Great]

That was shut down very fast.

[kompir]

That was shut down very fast.

What was shut down?

[Risto the Great]

The admission of Ukranian casualties.

[Vangelovski]

"Admission". People are constantly mixing up their info. Politicians especially. I agree with Phoenix - if the Ukrainians really had 100,000 dead, then the number of wounded would probably be around 300,000. That's 400,000 men. If that were the case, there's no way the Ukrainians could have achieved the victories they have. One hundred thousand casualties rather than dead, is much more plausible, and has been reported by numerous sources lately.

I also think the Ukrainians are creating a foothold on the east bank. It was previously reported the Russians had withdrawn from the river front and moved back a few kilometers.

Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City. The Ukrainian “Carlson” volunteer special air intelligence unit posted footage on December 3 of Ukrainian servicemen traversing the Dnipro River in boats, reaching a wooden marina-like structure on the east bank, and raising a Ukrainian flag on a tower toward near the shore.[1] Special Unit “Carlson” reported that this is the first instance of a Ukrainian flag flying over the east bank of the Dnipro River and emphasized this operation will provide a springboard for subsequent Ukrainian operations on the east bank.[2] If confirmed, this limited Ukrainian incursion onto the east bank could open avenues for Ukrainian forces to begin to operate on the east bank. As ISW has previously reported, observed Russian fortifications on the left bank indicate Russian forces are anticipating Ukrainian offensive actions on the east bank and have been constructing defensive lines south of the Dnipro River.[3] The establishment of positions along the eastern riverbank will likely set conditions for future Ukrainian offensive operations into occupied Kherson Oblast, if Ukrainian troops choose to pursue this line of advance in the south.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ent-december-3

[Carlin]

Newsweek:

Ukraine's power grid could completely collapse within weeks if Russian strikes continue.

According to the American edition at the moment about 50% of energy infrastructure facilities have been seriously damaged. In this regard the collapse can be expected by Christmas.

[Carlin]

Merkel reveals the Minsk Agreement was a stalling tactic that allowed the West to militarize Ukraine as an anti-Russian proxy and fortify it for an inevitable war.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1600745894365736960?cxt=HHwWgMCtlZ36_rYsAAAA

[Risto the Great]

Merkel reveals the Minsk Agreement was a stalling tactic that allowed the West to militarize Ukraine as an anti-Russian proxy and fortify it for an inevitable war.

Putin on Merkel's words about Minsk agreements:

To be honest, it was absolutely unexpected for me. It's disappointing. Frankly speaking, I did not expect to hear this from the former chancellor, because I have always assumed that the German leadership behaves sincerely with us. Yes, of course, it was on the side of Ukraine, supported it, but it still seemed to me that the German leadership has always sincerely sought a settlement on the principles that we agreed on, within the framework of the Minsk process.

This only shows that launching the SMO was the right decision. It turns out that no one was going to fulfill these Minsk agreements. The point was only to pump Ukraine with weapons and prepare for combat operations. Maybe we should have started all this earlier.
Trust almost dropped to 0. How to negotiate? About what? And is it possible to negotiate with them? Where are the guarantees? I have said many times that we are ready to sign agreements, but this makes us think about who we are dealing with.

This democracy stuff is a hoot.

[Dejan]

Seems all the world powers are pro-war. It's a money spinner

[Carlin]

From "Russians with Attitude" channel:

There are reports coming in that the north-eastern industrial zone in Bakhmut has been fully captured by Russian forces, including SINIAT cement plant & Artwinery.

[Carlin]

The amount of loss of Ukrainian life in Bakmut is unprecedented and shocking. Russian losses are relatively lower because of their very slow approach and their priority to ensure minimal losses.

[Phoenix]

The amount of loss of Ukrainian life in Bakmut is unprecedented and shocking. Russian losses are relatively lower because of their very slow approach and their priority to ensure minimal losses.

Apparently Ukrainian sources are reporting losses of up to 70%…