Russia, Ukraine and the West

[Vangelovski]

Not too much adds up...

If the reporting is correct that it was an S300, they have a very limited operating range <200km (I think)...which would put them out of range of Poland if fired from Russia/Russian held territory.

The S300 is a surface-to-air defence system and wouldn't be used in a surface-to-surface role (at least highly unlikely to be used that way).

When you consider the missile hit a farm (sadly killed two people) it would appear to be high risk/low reward endeavour for the Russians if they were trying to get a response from NATO and potentially invoke an Article 5 response when the Russians could simply send a hypersonic missile to take out the NATO HQ in Brussels.

The Ukrainian S300's are Soviet era systems and have been poorly maintained, a recipe for disaster and not the first time in this conflict that they fucked-up.

Then take a look at who is screaming the loudest, the usual antagonists...Zelensky, the Baltics, some Poles and the Brits.

And finally, didn't the Russians run out of missiles, like in early March...?

On the contrary, the Russians escalated their bombing of Ukraine with missiles and drones, a possible precursor to ramping up their winter offensive, Ukrainian air defences were stretched and overwhelmed leading to accidents such as this but what better way to garner sympathy from your western benefactors than to demonise those pesky Russians.

It was most probably a Ukrainian stuff up. It'll be interesting to see how far the Poles push the issue.

[Carlin]

The "stuff up" looks increasingly deliberate.

Gergely Gouyash, head of the office of the Prime Minister of Hungary: "The actions of Ukrainian President Zelensky turned out to be irresponsible as he accused Russia of launching a missile attack in eastern Poland, although the Ukrainians were to blame for this incident".

[kompir]

I don't know if anyone else has noticed, the narrative in the MSM has morphed over the past 24 hours. On the surface, it's as though the missile strike "woke" up the media but there's more to it than that, like their position has become untenable...

[Vangelovski]

Russian conscripts are inadequate for war fighting. More examples:

Russian military commanders reportedly ignored existing plans for offensive operations in the Vuhledar direction and committed poorly trained reinforcements to costly assaults on Pavlivka out of impatience. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) military commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed on November 15 that Russian forces initially planned to attack in the Vuhledar area from two directions but that he and other commanders realized that the poor training of reinforcements and their inability to contact brigade commanders made such plans impossible.[20] Khodakovsky claimed that brigade commanders changed the plan completely and committed all Russian forces in the area to an attack on Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast.[21] ISW had previously reported that Russian forces prematurely impaled an insufficient concentration of mobilized personnel on offensive pushes aimed at seizing Pavlivka leading to extensive losses, particularly among the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet.[22] Russian military officials likely abandoned their initial plans and committed poorly trained reinforcements to the assault on Pavlivka due to a sense of politically-driven urgency to restart the Donetsk offensive campaign before the planned Russian withdrawal from Kherson City.

The high costs associated with the Russian offensive push on Pavlivka continue to generate criticism of Russian military leadership. Khodakovsky claimed that Russian military leadership is trying to blame the “miserable results” on the commander of the 40th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet for not properly supporting the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.[23] Khodakovsky argued that the brigade commanders are guilty of the high costs of the assault and that the commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin, should not allow an “innocent” commander to take the blame for the poor planning of Russian military leadership.[24] ISW previously assessed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued a rare statement on November 7 in response to the extensive Russian milblogger outcry concerning the losses associated with the Pavlivka offensive operation.[25] Khodakovsky’s criticisms of the Russian military command indicate that the Russian MoD likely failed to address the outrage fully and that Russian pro-war figures and milbloggers will continue to criticize Russian military commanders.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-15

And if Russia is now buying 35 year-old T-72s from Belarus, it has serious production issues. According to the Military Balance, Belarus operates T-72Bs, which entered service in 1985. It only has about two dozen upgraded T-72B3s.

Russian forces are continuing to replenish their diminishing supplies with Belarusian military equipment. Belarusian group “Society of Railway Personnel of Belarus” claimed that Belarusian forces delivered 98 T-72 tanks, 40 BMP-2 armored vehicles, 20 dismantled BMPs, and 53 Ural trucks from the Belarusian 969th tank reserve base located in Minsk Oblast, Belarus throughout October.[74]

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-15

[Carlin]

Responding to Zelensky’s remarks tonight, a NATO country diplomat told me:

“This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.”

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1592966202955075586

[Vangelovski]

Responding to Zelensky’s remarks tonight, a NATO country diplomat told me:

“This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.”

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/st...66202955075586

Zelensky is overstepping now. Possibly a case of the old East European "the West is stupid and we'll BS them" attitude. Even if it was a Russian missile, which I don't think it was, I don't see the point of NATO responding over an accident. At first I thought the Poles might push for something (not necessarily a military response) but Ukraine needed to follow the Polish lead, not overstep.

[Phoenix]

Zelensky is overstepping now. Possibly a case of the old East European "the West is stupid and we'll BS them" attitude. Even if it was a Russian missile, which I don't think it was, I don't see the point of NATO responding over an accident. At first I thought the Poles might push for something (not necessarily a military response) but Ukraine needed to follow the Polish lead, not overstep.

This is another example of the truth being the first casualty of war…just add this nonsense to the other BS thrown around at every opportunity by the Ukrainians and their western spin-doctors.

Remember the Russians talking about using nuclear weapons…

Remember when the Russians were shelling the nuclear power plant that they were holding…

Remember all of those Ukrainian women that the Russians were systematically raping…

Remember the mass graves of Ukrainian non-combatants…

Remember the Russian plan to starve the developing world by blockading grain shipments…

Remember Putin’s gas price hike…

I think this speaks volumes of the dire situation that Zelensky finds himself in, why the need to concoct such a story if your military is on the ascendancy, to go to such lengths to fabricate a story that is easily refutable reeks of a special desperation that only a man wedged tightly into a corner can imagine.

On a side note…Albo showed a disturbing lack of statesmanship to jump so spectacularly head first into the Putin Blame Game.

[Vangelovski]

A little bit about the men behind Ukraine's victories.

https://english.elpais.com/international/2022-11-16/trained-by-moscow-and-nato-and-hardened-in-donbas-the-generals-who-halted-russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html

[Vangelovski]

This is another example of the truth being the first casualty of war…just add this nonsense to the other BS thrown around at every opportunity by the Ukrainians and their western spin-doctors.

Remember the Russians talking about using nuclear weapons…

Remember when the Russians were shelling the nuclear power plant that they were holding…

Remember all of those Ukrainian women that the Russians were systematically raping…

Remember the mass graves of Ukrainian non-combatants…

Remember the Russian plan to starve the developing world by blockading grain shipments…

Remember Putin’s gas price hike…

Some of those were overhyped, but some did happen. Easy to google.

I think this speaks volumes of the dire situation that Zelensky finds himself in, why the need to concoct such a story if your military is on the ascendancy, to go to such lengths to fabricate a story that is easily refutable reeks of a special desperation that only a man wedged tightly into a corner can imagine.

The Ukrainian military is clearly the superior force. Zelensky made a political mistake.

[Phoenix]

The Ukrainian military is clearly the superior force. Zelensky made a political mistake.

There’s a lot of Baghdad Bob about that statement…

[Carlin]

"Please watch this detailed explanation from former CIA analyst Frank Snepp about how the newspapers and magazines you were taught to regard as mainstream and reliable have always eagerly served as disinformation megaphones for the CIA and the US Security State. That's still true."

https://mobile.twitter.com/Snowden/status/1589606899569377282

https://mobile.twitter.com/Snowden

Tucker Carlson puts regime media on BLAST after almost goading WWIII with false Russian missile report

https://mobile.twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1593340132698079234?cxt=HHwWhIC-_ZSa15wsAAAA

[Vangelovski]

There’s a lot of Baghdad Bob about that statement…

Is there?

This map shows the extent of the Russian invasion from February and how much territory the Ukrainians have taken back.



Its nearly half. There's more than a few "tactical withdrawals" there. Tactical withdrawal - that's the real Baghdad Bob.

[Karposh]

I get the feeling that, besides his fellow actors, Ben Stiller & Sean Penn, support for that drama queen, currently running Ukraine, is starting to wear thin. I predict that it won't be too long (if it hasn't already started) that the citizens of all those countries, who are about to face a freezing winter with sky-rocketing energy costs, won't look too favourably at their respective governments continuing to pour billions of dollars in helping to continue the fight against Russia rather than using that money for the benefit of their own people. Seeing this guy and his missus pose for Vogue magazine and other publications while they are freezing their arses off might just start to wear thin. There will be a backlash against this cocky little man who has gotten quite used to making all these demands from the world to fund his very existence. I have an uncle in Macedonia who has this same attitude and continues to make demands for money from his sisters and other relatives around the world. He's been doing it for 50 years and continues to do so. Never mind the fact that he is nonchalantly goading the world to get involved in a nuclear Armageddon with Russia to that end.

[Carlin]

Map showing conquests of imperial Russia through different periods

https://mobile.twitter.com/nrken19/status/1593620890314575875/photo/1

[Vangelovski]

I get the feeling that, besides his fellow actors, Ben Stiller & Sean Penn, support for that drama queen, currently running Ukraine, is starting to wear thin. I predict that it won't be too long (if it hasn't already started) that the citizens of all those countries, who are about to face a freezing winter with sky-rocketing energy costs, won't look too favourably at their respective governments continuing to pour billions of dollars in helping to continue the fight against Russia rather than using that money for the benefit of their own people. Seeing this guy and his missus pose for Vogue magazine and other publications while they are freezing their arses off might just start to wear thin. There will be a backlash against this cocky little man who has gotten quite used to making all these demands from the world to fund his very existence. I have an uncle in Macedonia who has this same attitude and continues to make demands for money from his sisters and other relatives around the world. He's been doing it for 50 years and continues to do so. Never mind the fact that he is nonchalantly goading the world to get involved in a nuclear Armageddon with Russia to that end.

Europe's not going to run out of gas.

Also see:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/i...ir%20territory.

I think most Europeans understand the importance of defeating Russia.