Russia, Ukraine and the West

[Vangelovski]

On the balance of things, I have absolutely no doubt that when you consider manpower advantages and deficits, the overwhelming advantage is with the Russian side.

I disagree. Russia does have about 3x the amount of manpower given that they have about 3x the population. But, Russia has undertaken a massive restructure of its armed forces since 2014. Its gone from a large standing conscript army with mass mobilisation in reserve, to a small standing army relying primarily on volunteers. As I've noted in previous posts, according to the Military Balance, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Russian army only has 280,000 active personnel. In theory, it also has about 2,000,000 (all services) conscripts that have served in the past 5 years. But these are poorly trained and have no actual combat experience. Further, conscripts are not normally trained for combat roles, they are used in support roles. Support roles are important, but Russia is now throwing them into combat.

Ukraine on the other hand, after 8 years of war in the Donbas, has approximately 1 million soldiers with actual combat experience and none of the morale issues facing the Russian army given they are fighting an existential threat.

The Russians went into this ‘Special Military Operation’ with a total combined force of some 250K, with the majority of boots on ground being the militia forces from Donetsk and Luhansk…the actual Russian contribution may not have been any greater than 80K and consisted mostly of artillery, aviation and special operation forces.
This would equate to a small fraction of Russia’s military manpower pool.

Again, according to the Military Balance, Donetsk and Luhansk have 20,000 and 14,000 personnel respectively. That is a total of 34,000. It is well established that Russia sent in approximately 200,000 soldiers in February and an unknown number more to replace casualties (consisting of national guard and border guard units that are not trained or equipped to fight wars). Anyone can google this. A list of Russian, Ukrainian, Donetsk and Luhansk units can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_...ion_of_Ukraine

During the same period Ukraine started off with a manpower advantage of 3X over the Russians, since hostilities erupted Ukraine has lost >100K KIA and a further >100K injured and unable to resume the fight.

Even the Russian Government hasn't claimed this many Ukrainian casualties but maybe you can point me to a source? If we go for the higher estimate of Russian casualties provided by the Ukrainian Government, then the Russians have lost 200,000 men as well (killed and wounded).

The cold reality is that Russia defeated Ukraine many months ago and is now engaged in the mother of proxy wars against some of NATO’s most belligerent and rabid ant-Russia members, hence Putin’s call up of an additional 300K reservists for the final push.

If the Russians defeated the Ukrainians months ago they would not have lost so much territory. If there was only some "rabid- anti-Russia" forces left, Russia would not need 300,000 men...but then again, they are untrained farmers.

Ukraine has not got the manpower nor the military industrial complex geared to maintaining the fight against Russia…no matter how much money the west pours into this bottomless pit…every other pro-Ukraine perspective is to divorce oneself from reality and a complete fucking nonsense.

Ukraine definitely has the manpower and it has many more trained and combat experienced soldiers than Russia has. Russia is now resorting to conscripting men who were never trained for combat roles and have no combat experience. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have the necessary military industrial capacity (Russia due to sanctions and Ukraine due to having lost it in the Donbas). But Ukraine does not need it because it's being supplied by the West.

[Phoenix]

Russia still fights like it has an unlimited supply of manpower and many of its strategies on tackling low morale and soldiers refusing to fight haven't changed since Trotsky first ordered the use of blocking units in 1918.

On the balance of things, I have absolutely no doubt that when you consider manpower advantages and deficits, the overwhelming advantage is with the Russian side.

The Russians went into this ‘Special Military Operation’ with a total combined force of some 250K, with the majority of boots on ground being the militia forces from Donetsk and Luhansk…the actual Russian contribution may not have been any greater than 80K and consisted mostly of artillery, aviation and special operation forces.
This would equate to a small fraction of Russia’s military manpower pool.

During the same period Ukraine started off with a manpower advantage of 3X over the Russians, since hostilities erupted Ukraine has lost >100K KIA and a further >100K injured and unable to resume the fight.

The cold reality is that Russia defeated Ukraine many months ago and is now engaged in the mother of proxy wars against some of NATO’s most belligerent and rabid ant-Russia members, hence Putin’s call up of an additional 300K reservists for the final push.

Ukraine has not got the manpower nor the military industrial complex geared to maintaining the fight against Russia…no matter how much money the west pours into this bottomless pit…every other pro-Ukraine perspective is to divorce oneself from reality and a complete fucking nonsense.

[Phoenix]

I am saying that is completely reasonable for Ukraine (and with the people's freewill) to side with US given the history and the present day conditions. I pretty sure most Macedonians want to side with US too, at least if it was not for some modern day far-leftwing ideologies that have been manifesting.

As for the last one Putin has started losing it completely about the West in some of his speeches or (?) messages where he brought LGBT issues out of nowhere. In case you did not know. You go figure.

Before the conflict with Russia, Ukraine enjoyed (and still does) the status of one of the most corrupt nations in all of Europe, that was not Putin’s doing…when Putin talks of nazi glorification in Ukraine, he’s not making shit up…if Ukrainians want Western standards (whatever the fuck that means) they have to commit to higher personal and moral responsibilities…they can’t have both.

Putin hasn’t lost anything…you on the other hand…lol

[Vangelovski]

Russia still fights like it has an unlimited supply of manpower and many of its strategies on tackling low morale and soldiers refusing to fight haven't changed since Trotsky first ordered the use of blocking units in 1918.

Putin has also noted that up to 80,000 mobilized personnel have entered the combat zone as of November 7, with 50,000 operating within combat units.[92]

Russian forces are continuing to subject newly mobilized men to poor living conditions that are leaving many men demoralized or sick or both. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian units in Belarus are mostly composed of newly mobilized men who live in field tents without proper sanitary conditions. The GUR noted that many mobilized men in Belarus are suffering from respiratory illnesses as a result of such unsuitable living conditions.[93] Belarusian doctors are reportedly overwhelmed with the number of ill mobilized servicemen, prompting Russian forces to deploy additional medical units to the Belarusian training grounds. The GUR added that regular Russian servicemen live in normal conditions and noted that there is an increasing number of ethnically charged conflicts between Belarusian and Russian servicemen. Social media footage also showed a serviceman with a Caucasian accent humiliating a Russian serviceman who was apologizing for offending his religion, indicating that Russian forces continue to face religious conflicts despite the Kremlin’s rhetoric of supporting Russia’s diversity.[94] There are also reported instances of harassment against mobilized men who return from the frontlines.[95]

Russian forces continue to face challenges preventing desertion and disciplining mobilized men. Russian opposition outlets reported that families of 21 detained mobilized men from Primorsky Krai appealed to Russian authorities regarding their wrongful mobilization and their poor living conditions within a detention center in occupied Donetsk Oblast.[96] The relatives claimed that Russian commanders even threatened to kill the mobilized men if they continued to refuse to fight.[97] A pro-war Russian milblogger also noted that the relatives still cannot contact mobilized servicemen operating on the Kreminna-Svatove line due to the irresponsibility of Russian higher military command.[98] Russian police also failed to control 350 drunk mobilized men who arrived in Belgorod Oblast by rail.[99] Russian opposition outlets reported that Russian officials once again closed the Perevalsk detention center in occupied Luhansk Oblast due to increased public awareness and transferred detained mobilized personnel to an unspecified location.[100]

Russian forces are also experiencing high casualty rates among mobilized men on the frontlines. One mobilized man who had survived on the Kreminna-Svatove frontline reported that over 500 mobilized personnel from Voronezh Oblast died as a result of Ukrainian shelling on their positions in Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast. The man noted that Russian commanders concentrated a large number of personnel in one area and forced them to dig trenches, resulting in only 41 individuals surviving Ukrainian artillery fire.[101] Local state outlet Ria Voronezh at first discredited the account as a “fake,” only to remove this statement on November 7 from its website.[102] Russian milbloggers questioned the authenticity of the report but still called on Russian commanders to address problems within their units so that more men do not spread damaging rumors regarding the Russian Armed Forces.[103] Russian volunteer battalions are also continuing to suffer losses, with Republic of Sakha’s volunteer unit “Bootur” reportedly returning to Russia with 13 of 105 volunteers.[104]

Russian mobilized servicemen and their families continued to protest in select Russian regions. Social media footage showed Russian mobilized men rioting in Kazan, and some mobilized men engaged in a skirmish with Major General Kirill Kulakov due to poor living conditions and being provided 50-year-old guns.[105] Russian officials also published a video reportedly from two organizers of riots among mobilized men in Chuvash Republic thanking Russian officials for resolving the issues with promised financial compensation, but the video appears staged.[106] Russian men also continue to share their accounts of local government officials failing to provide promised payments on different Russian Telegram channels.[107] Relatives of mobilized personnel in Yemanzhelisk, Chelyabinsk Oblast, protested for the return of their loved ones who were mobilized without any training.[108] Local outlets reported that a man in Transbaikal attacked a military recruitment official when the official informed him about the death of a mobilized relative.[109] An elderly woman in Angarsk, Irkutsk Oblast, additionally attempted to set fire to a military recruitment center.[110]

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ent-november-7

[tchaiku]

Serbia, like every small nation has to carefully navigate a minefield of sometimes nefarious geopolitical machinations and the whims of supranational entities like the EU.



Not sure what your point is here, you're comparing a totalitarian lunatic of Georgian heritage to Putin...you're fucking nuts!
In a perfect world devoid of the pursuit of superpower hegemony, I wonder what side the people of Hiroshima would have picked on August 6, 1945, or the people of Nagasaki on August 9?



Seriously...WTF?

I am saying that is completely reasonable for Ukraine (and with the people's freewill) to side with US given the history and the present day conditions. I pretty sure most Macedonians want to side with US too, at least if it was not for some modern day far-leftwing ideologies that have been manifesting.

As for the last one Putin has started losing it completely about the West in some of his speeches or (?) messages where he brought LGBT issues out of nowhere. In case you did not know. You go figure.

[Risto the Great]

Serbia which was backed by Russia, enormously, during both WWs and the collapse of Yugoslavia has still somehow managed to become more EU friendly.

Macedonia became EU friendly too.
And USA frinedly.
And even Taiwan friendly for a moment.
Whores can be friendly.
What exactly are you saying?

[Risto the Great]

Don't forget the importance of the mid term elections in USA.
Small wins in Ukraine right now are very necessary from a marketing perspective. The game will be up soon thereafter. (Including sharemarket gains)

[Phoenix]

1) Things are looking bad for Russians in Pavlovka. Naval infantry are currently taking unsustainable losses, an appeal has been made to Russian MoD. The fingers are once more pointed at an incompetent general in charge of the eastern district.

2) LEAKED OUTLINE OF US DEAL OFFER TO KIEV DELIVERED BY SULLIVAN:

- Kiev gets Kherson
- Cedes already lost territories
- Gets $50 billion and Russian frozen assets to rebuild
- Gets electricity from Zap. NPP, agrees to Russian ownership

Wars, Special Military Operations, call them what you will - they seldom go according to plan.

Apparently both side are taking heavy losses in Pavlovka.

This is a critical juncture in the fighting, Ukraine is throwing everything it has left to win small battles at a time when the Russians are redeploying forces and as the battlefield is being reshaped small cracks are beginning to appear that the Ukrainians will exploit for short term gains but they cannot win the war once the Russians are back at strength later this month.

I've read that the 'deal' is simply a ploy to galvanise continued Western support for Zelenski at a time when many Western governments are showing reluctance to keep funding an indefinite and futile war effort on behalf of an increasingly stubborn Zelenski, who is showing no interest in a settlement but making ever more ridiculous demands for Western military assistance.

[Phoenix]

Serbia which was backed by Russia, enormously, during both WWs and the collapse of Yugoslavia has still somehow managed to become more EU friendly.

Serbia, like every small nation has to carefully navigate a minefield of sometimes nefarious geopolitical machinations and the whims of supranational entities like the EU.

...Now simply take in perspective, 5 million starved Ukrainians during the Soviet Union, weak economy, lack of democracy and no EU/US benefits.
No wonder, which side would any rational person pick.

Not sure what your point is here, you're comparing a totalitarian lunatic of Georgian heritage to Putin...you're fucking nuts!
In a perfect world devoid of the pursuit of superpower hegemony, I wonder what side the people of Hiroshima would have picked on August 6, 1945, or the people of Nagasaki on August 9?

...Putin is bringing the transgender insanity because he deeply knows he is inferior on making an actual reasonable excuse for his intentions.

Seriously...WTF?

[Carlin]

1) Things are looking bad for Russians in Pavlovka. Naval infantry are currently taking unsustainable losses, an appeal has been made to Russian MoD. The fingers are once more pointed at an incompetent general in charge of the eastern district.

2) LEAKED OUTLINE OF US DEAL OFFER TO KIEV DELIVERED BY SULLIVAN:

- Kiev gets Kherson
- Cedes already lost territories
- Gets $50 billion and Russian frozen assets to rebuild
- Gets electricity from Zap. NPP, agrees to Russian ownership

[Carlin]

"Azov pagan ritual/worship - blood offering to god Perun"

https://mobile.twitter.com/SameeraKhan/status/1589339707057795072

[tchaiku]

This is what you wrote:
You automatically assume that whatever Ukrainian (or Georgian or whichever) governments do is forced on them by Western "benefactors", who have already made the decision for them. Why can’t you just accept the possibility that Ukrainians (or whoever) have freely made those decisions based on what they believe is best for them? I’d ask you to provide evidence of your claims that the world is controlled by Western “benefactors”, but I know you have none.

Serbia which was backed by Russia, enormously, during both WWs and the collapse of Yugoslavia has still somehow managed to become more EU friendly.

Now simply take in perspective, 5 million starved Ukrainians during the Soviet Union, weak economy, lack of democracy and no EU/US benefits.

No wonder, which side would any rational person pick.

Putin is bringing the transgender insanity because he deeply knows he is inferior on making an actual reasonable excuse for his intentions.

[Vangelovski]

Ukraine's representative for Crimea, Tamila Tasheva, told the British Newspaper the Daily Mail that they will forcibly expel 800,000 ethnic Russians from the peninsula when it is liberated

To be fair, she was talking about 800,000 Russians she claims entered illegally after Russian invaded Crimea.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11383711/IAN-BIRRELL-explains-Ukraine-hellbent-retaking-Crimea-despite-Putins-threats.html

[Carlin]

All four defence lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Artyomovsk/Bakhmut were broken through. Fierce fighting underway inside the city.

(On 4 February 2016 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine confirmed the name change of the city by returning to the original one. Bakhmut was the capital of Slavo-Serbia, which was established by Serbian migrants from Austria.)

[Carlin]

Ukraine's representative for Crimea, Tamila Tasheva, told the British Newspaper the Daily Mail that they will forcibly expel 800,000 ethnic Russians from the peninsula when it is liberated