Russia, Ukraine and the West

[Big Bad Sven]

Has Blackwater been deployed to Ukraine? Notorious U.S. mercenaries 'seen on the streets of flashpoint city' as Russia claims 300 hired guns have arrived in country

- Unidentified armed men seen on the streets of Donetsk in east Ukraine
- Russian diplomat claims 300 mercenaries had arrived in Kiev this week
-Mercenaries in the region could give Putin pretext for military action
-Donetsk has been the scene of big pro-Russian demonstrations this week

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2576490/Are-Blackwater-active-Ukraine-Videos-spark-talk-U-S-mercenary-outfit-deployed-Donetsk.html

[Big Bad Sven]

Supposedly there are now hired Blackwater mercenaries in the city of Donetsk to keep people from protesting and to force them to accept orders from Kiev. The oligarch who was put in charge of the city on the suggestion of the other oligarch Yulia Tymochenko, and who the people do not want is considered one of the richest men in the world. Maybe he's paying for the blackwater thugs.

In the end i feel sorry for the people of Ukraine. Outside forces manipulated what was to be a peaceful protest, and now the country has gone to shit.

We have western and russian mercenaries bullying the population so we will never really know what ukrainians really think. The only thing we do no is that the ethnic russian minority in Crimea dont want to be a part of Ukraine.

I also feel sorry for the Western Ukrainians, when Russia turns off the gas do you think the sick man of europe (the EU) will care or help? Or what about catholic brother Poland? LOL they wont do anything to help them

[Phoenix]

Has Blackwater been deployed to Ukraine? Notorious U.S. mercenaries 'seen on the streets of flashpoint city' as Russia claims 300 hired guns have arrived in country

- Unidentified armed men seen on the streets of Donetsk in east Ukraine
- Russian diplomat claims 300 mercenaries had arrived in Kiev this week
-Mercenaries in the region could give Putin pretext for military action
-Donetsk has been the scene of big pro-Russian demonstrations this week




http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...d-Donetsk.html

Without a shadow of doubt, American intelligence will be all over it with men on the ground. it will be a treasure trove of information for the Americans in determining the capabilities and determination of both sides and how the situation can be exploited to America's advantage.
Although I reckon the American's would be conducting far more covert actions than running around waving guns in public...

Surely Blackwater or whatever they call themselves today have evolved since their debacles in Iraq...

[George S.]

if they are sending in mercenaries looks like it will escalate further.I don't think either side wants peaceat this stage.

[Vangelovski]

The other problem with Ukrainian resistance is that its military reflects the rest of the country - its divided between Ukrainians and Russophiles and that's why so many of them have defected to the Russians. Its virtually a worthless force and I imagine that it will be restructured after this (if they're smart).

Looks like they took my advice...

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCABREA1Q1E820140311?sp=true

[Gocka]

Looks like they took my advice...

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNew...140311?sp=true

Its a smart choice for Ukraine to build a pro Ukraine army from scratch, but at the same time its bound to cause even more division among Ukrainian citizens. Now your going to end up with 3 armies in Ukraine, Pro Ukrainian, Pro Russian, and Russian. What happens to all the pro Russian soldiers? Do they get kicked out of the army, what about their munitions and the bases they control?

This could play into Russia's hands. For example, lets say Ukraine is able to build a sizable Pro Ukrainian army, then what? What is the next step, what is that army going to be used for? To drive the Russians out? To regain control of military establishments that are controlled by pro Russian forces? If the choose to try and displace and disarm the Pro Russian forces we are talking about a potential full on civil war, at which point surely the Russian's will get involved to help their side.

In my opinion, Russia does not want to fire the first shot, so they are trying to provoke the Pro west government to cross that line first so they can say that they were just defending themselves and/or the Rusophills.

What happens on Sunday when the referendum end with a pro Russia vote? Will Ukraine physically try to stop them?

I dont like the way this is playing out, people are bound to die.


On a side note, Russia's air force outnumber Ukraine's 100 -1, that is staggering.

[Vangelovski]

Its a smart choice for Ukraine to build a pro Ukraine army from scratch, but at the same time its bound to cause even more division among Ukrainian citizens. Now your going to end up with 3 armies in Ukraine, Pro Ukrainian, Pro Russian, and Russian. What happens to all the pro Russian soldiers? Do they get kicked out of the army, what about their munitions and the bases they control? .

Pro-Russian militia's are basically made up of Russophile servicemen and reservists, so they already have any army.

This could play into Russia's hands. For example, lets say Ukraine is able to build a sizable Pro Ukrainian army, then what? What is the next step, what is that army going to be used for? To drive the Russians out? To regain control of military establishments that are controlled by pro Russian forces? If the choose to try and displace and disarm the Pro Russian forces we are talking about a potential full on civil war, at which point surely the Russian's will get involved to help their side.

If you're not going to defend your state then what's the point of having one? The Russians are already involved.

In my opinion, Russia does not want to fire the first shot, so they are trying to provoke the Pro west government to cross that line first so they can say that they were just defending themselves and/or the Rusophills.

In what universe could the Russians logically claim that they are defending themselves seeing as they have invaded Ukraine? Regardless of who Crimea should belong to - and I would say the Tartars have the most convincing claim - Russia sent its military across an international border.

What happens on Sunday when the referendum end with a pro Russia vote? Will Ukraine physically try to stop them?.

I doubt it.

I dont like the way this is playing out, people are bound to die..

Everyone dies. But in this specific case, it will be in defence of their freedom. Freedom has a price you know. If the Ukrainians wanted to just have pretend freedom (akin to children playing 'mummies and daddies') they should have just remained a part of the Soviet Union or merged with Russia after its collapse.

On a side note, Russia's air force outnumber Ukraine's 100 -1, that is staggering.

That's just an exaggeration...or a misprint. Its actually closer to 10-1, but its a mystery as to how many aircraft are actually combat capable.

[Gocka]

Some interesting logic there mister Vangelovski, I wonder how fast you would run to Macedonia to die, in order to defend it should it be necessary (it once was, I wonder if you were there).

I dont like how cavalier you are with death, especially when it concerns others. I hate the romanticizing of death, like there is ever a good reason to die. Death is cold, ugly and permanent there is nothing glorious or worthy about it.

You dont feel any sympathy for those who would potentially die should this turn into a war? On either side? Or are they just a "price" that needs to be paid in order to obtain freedom.

Also how do you know for a fact that Russia's air force is not 100x that of Ukraine? Got any statistics?

Also I didn't say Russia's claims would be logical, I just said that's what they would claim. They already said that the reason they sent troops into Ukraine in the first place was to protect Russians from aggression, now they are just waiting for any act of aggression so that they can say "see we told you so".

[Vangelovski]

Some interesting logic there mister Vangelovski, I wonder how fast you would run to Macedonia to die, in order to defend it should it be necessary (it once was, I wonder if you were there).

I dont like how cavalier you are with death, especially when it concerns others. I hate the romanticizing of death, like there is ever a good reason to die. Death is cold, ugly and permanent there is nothing glorious or worthy about it.

You dont feel any sympathy for those who would potentially die should this turn into a war? On either side? Or are they just a "price" that needs to be paid in order to obtain freedom.

Gocka, do you think that you will live forever? Even if you live to 100, then there is the question of quality of life. But that was a general statement.

National freedom (and sometimes personal freedom) requires sacrifice, and sometimes people die. I agree, there is nothing romantic about it - its just the ugly truth. What I find fascinating is that people seem to think that it can be obtained and maintained easily and without sacrifice. Collective and individual freedom is not for the faint hearted. If death (something which comes to all of us eventually) scares you, then don't get involved in liberation struggles (along with a host of other activities such as driving) - but don't try and discourage others from doing so.

Also how do you know for a fact that Russia's air force is not 100x that of Ukraine? Got any statistics?.

Yes, The Military Balance (2014) reports that Russia has 1,389 combat ready aircraft and Ukraine has 221 combat ready aircraft. So in fact, its closer to 6 to 1 rather than the 10 to 1 I originally suggested.

Also I didn't say Russia's claims would be logical, I just said that's what they would claim. They already said that the reason they sent troops into Ukraine in the first place was to protect Russians from aggression, now they are just waiting for any act of aggression so that they can say "see we told you so".

Russia can claim whatever it likes and say "we told you so" as much as it likes - it doesn't change reality.

[Gocka]

Gocka, do you think that you will live forever? Even if you live to 100, then there is the question of quality of life. But that was a general statement.

National freedom (and sometimes personal freedom) requires sacrifice, and sometimes people die. I agree, there is nothing romantic about it - its just the ugly truth. What I find fascinating is that people seem to think that it can be obtained and maintained easily and without sacrifice. Collective and individual freedom is not for the faint hearted. If death (something which comes to all of us eventually) scares you, then don't get involved in liberation struggles (along with a host of other activities such as driving) - but don't try and discourage others from doing so.

Yes, The Military Balance (2014) reports that Russia has 1,389 combat ready aircraft and Ukraine has 221 combat ready aircraft. So in fact, its closer to 6 to 1 rather than the 10 to 1 I originally suggested.

Russia can claim whatever it likes and say "we told you so" as much as it likes - it doesn't change reality.

You know very well that I never suggested nor eluded to most of what you just wrote.

We will all die one day, that doesn't mean it should be just whenever or what ever. The main goal in an crisis should be to minimize the loss of life.

Sacrifice, when you substitute the word death with something like sacrifice it almost takes the sting out of the reality of it.

Maintaining freedom takes constant effort yes but death? What good is freedom when you are dead? Its just bad practice to be so cavalier with the notion of death. So please dont pretend that you do no fear it (death). We all do, no one wants to die, and most sane people would avoid death at all costs.

Don't try and discourage others from doing what man? Dying? Are you madd?

Why are you equating fear of death, with not wanting to die prematurely?

Please dont diminish the seriousness of death with overly romanticized notions of freedom. Its not good for the Macedonian cause and it makes you look crazy.

About Russia, no one spoke of "reality", you delve too quickly into a theoretical struggle and your self lose touch with the reality of what people are saying. I spoke about some potential scenarios and how Russia would react to them, I never said whether it was right or wrong, logical or illogical, real or unreal. You eventually said what I said in the first place.

Seriously though, the way you speak about death, irks me. It just sounds fake, it just sounds like something theoretical that you would never actually do which in the end makes it worthless.


Edit, You were initially right about the the air force ratio, it is in fact 10:1. Russia has a lot more air craft that are not serviced and prepped for combat, nor do they have a sufficient amount of pilots even if all their planes were combat ready.

[Vangelovski]

You know very well that I never suggested nor eluded to most of what you just wrote.

We will all die one day, that doesn't mean it should be just whenever or what ever. The main goal in an crisis should be to minimize the loss of life.

Sacrifice, when you substitute the word death with something like sacrifice it almost takes the sting out of the reality of it.

Maintaining freedom takes constant effort yes but death? What good is freedom when you are dead? Its just bad practice to be so cavalier with the notion of death. So please dont pretend that you do no fear it (death). We all do, no one wants to die, and most sane people would avoid death at all costs.

Don't try and discourage others from doing what man? Dying? Are you madd?

Why are you equating fear of death, with not wanting to die prematurely?

Please dont diminish the seriousness of death with overly romanticized notions of freedom. Its not good for the Macedonian cause and it makes you look crazy.

About Russia, no one spoke of "reality", you delve too quickly into a theoretical struggle and your self lose touch with the reality of what people are saying. I spoke about some potential scenarios and how Russia would react to them, I never said whether it was right or wrong, logical or illogical, real or unreal. You eventually said what I said in the first place.

Seriously though, the way you speak about death, irks me. It just sounds fake, it just sounds like something theoretical that you would never actually do which in the end makes it worthless.

Gocka, you seem to be very easily 'irked'. We are talking about one country invading another. At this stage, the time for diplomacy is well and truely over. If the country that is being invaded wants to preserve its liberty, then "irky" or not, it needs to go to war. The other option is just to rollover and "whatever man". I'm not saying war should be the first option, anyone who follows my posts will know that I would make it my absolute last option, however, in this case Russia has moved that right to the forefront.

You seem to be going off into a fit there - you should learn to relax. Its not like I was suggesting mass suicide or something - I'm just stating the obvious. If that's such a "scary" thought, I wonder how you feel about (original) VMRO's "Freedom or Death" slogan. That was not romantisiced BS (nor is what I'm saying). It was simply a statement of fact by individuals who could no longer tolerate their conditions of life and had determined to either live free or die trying.

Its quite a common occurance in fact - you should look it up.

In a general sense, we don't usually have more than 100 years. No one wants to die prematurely, but many, many people do because of desease and accidents. And its sad. But its no different than dying in war for a purpose - collective freedom on which you're own personal freedom usually hinges, protection of your family and property and so on.

[Gocka]

I would be lying if I said that I dont have a bit of a temper.

My main point was for Ukraine to not be stupid and play into Russia's hands. I believe Russia wants Ukraine to fire the first shot so it can do a smash and grab on Crimea. My point was if Ukraine jumps the gun and give Russia a reason, people would die in my opinion unnecessarily. Then you spoke about it in a way that just sounded awfully cavalier to me and just it bothered me.

No one is denying that in a time of war you have no choice, you think I would let anyone lay a finger on my family? Again my main point was that no one should die prematurely if it can be avoided, and I am talking about both Ukrainians and Russians here.

Also I dont think you can compare the situation in Crimea with that of Ottoman enslavement which lasted centuries, it kind of makes light of it no?

Anyway, the reality of the situation is that Russia is being a piece of shit and capitalizing on the strong pro Russian stance of Crimea, and also taking advantage of the fact that everyone knows that it would turn into WW3 if anyone tried to stop them. The Russians know that no one wants to take that risk to oppose them militarily. They are going to end up with Crimea and no one is going to do anything about it.

Gocka, you seem to be very easily 'irked'. We are talking about one country invading another. At this stage, the time for diplomacy is well and truely over. If the country that is being invaded wants to preserve its liberty, then "irky" or not, it needs to go to war. The other option is just to rollover and "whatever man". I'm not saying war should be the first option, anyone who follows my posts will know that I would make it my absolute last option, however, in this case Russia has moved that right to the forefront.

You seem to be going off into a fit there - you should learn to relax. Its not like I was suggesting mass suicide or something - I'm just stating the obvious. If that's such a "scary" thought, I wonder how you feel about (original) VMRO's "Freedom or Death" slogan. That was not romantisiced BS (nor is what I'm saying). It was simply a statement of fact by individuals who could no longer tolerate their conditions of life and had determined to either live free or die trying.

Its quite a common occurance in fact - you should look it up.

In a general sense, we don't usually have more than 100 years. No one wants to die prematurely, but many, many people do because of desease and accidents. And its sad. But its no different than dying in war for a purpose - collective freedom on which you're own personal freedom usually hinges, protection of your family and property and so on.

[Vangelovski]

I believe Russia wants Ukraine to fire the first shot so it can do a smash and grab on Crimea.

Your saying that Ukraine should provoke Russia or give it an excuse, its already done a 'smash and grab' on Crimea. And because its done it with no opposition whatsoever, and no consequences, it will only be more encouraged to do the same in Eastern Ukraine.

I'm just interested, if Russia were to move into Eastern Ukraine (Russophile territory), would you still recommend that the Ukrainians 'sit tight'? What if it then moved into the rest of Ukraine? At what point would it be ok for the Ukrainians to defend their country?

Lets bring it closer to home - at what point would it be ok for Macedonians to defend their country? Sure, if they 'sit tight' and don't "provoke" the Albanians by defending themselves against extremists they might not get hurt, but where do we draw the line?

As for comparisons between the Ottoman era and Crimea today, people don't need centries of oppression to actually be oppressed. The fact that they are no longer in control of their own country and foreign soldiers are on the ground is enough. Even so, I would imagine the Tartars are feeling pretty uncomfortable right now, knowing that only 60 years ago Russia deported them to Siberia in an attempted genocide. They certainly do not want to live in a Russian state - where do they join the line and how tight and for how long should they sit?

[Gocka]

I'm saying Ukraine should not act hastily. You need to win the war not the battle. The Russians are well prepared in Crimea, they have been even before this conflict broke out. It took them a matter of hours to effectively put the entire region under their control. The fact that most of Crimea wants to join Russia just adds to the miserable situation for Ukrainians. What are they to do about Crimea? Most of them want to separate, so even if they drove the Russians out through a bloody war then what? Then what do you do about the majority of that region that still want to separate and join with Russia? Force them to stay? Go to war with them too? Wouldn't forcing the majority of Crimea to remain Ukrainian when they feel Russian be a form of oppression, or require oppression to keep them from trying to separate?

If I were to equate it to Macedonia I would say the same thing. If tomorrow Tetovo wanted to separate from Macedonia and join Kosovo or Albania, what would Macedonia do? Go to Kosovo and kill as many people as possible to make them stay? Its the same with Kosovo, you even said it yourself, it was a matter of time. Even if the west didn't help, it would have eventually come to the same conclusion.

There is a line, its a blurry line and clear heads have to prevail. Even if Ukraine were to hold on to Crimea this time, it will be a matter of time before they rebel and try it again. Even if Serbia were still fighting with Albanians in Kosovo today what would be the outcome? A lot of dead people and a region still full of Albanians who now more then ever want to separate from Serbia.

Ukraine needs to act smart and hold on to eastern Ukraine. Build an army deploy it in the east, so that tomorrow Russia cant just walk in and take the whole place over in a few hours.

The same thing will eventually happen in Macedonia and there nothing you can do. You can fight and kill all you want but at the end of the day if 85% of Tetovo is Albanians who and what are you fighting for? The blood stained land? I'm not saying its right, but in reality what is your option? There is no point of thousands dying just to arrive at the same place again.

Your saying that Ukraine should provoke Russia or give it an excuse, its already done a 'smash and grab' on Crimea. And because its done it with no opposition whatsoever, and no consequences, it will only be more encouraged to do the same in Eastern Ukraine.

I'm just interested, if Russia were to move into Eastern Ukraine (Russophile territory), would you still recommend that the Ukrainians 'sit tight'? What if it then moved into the rest of Ukraine? At what point would it be ok for the Ukrainians to defend their country?

Lets bring it closer to home - at what point would it be ok for Macedonians to defend their country? Sure, if they 'sit tight' and don't "provoke" the Albanians by defending themselves against extremists they might not get hurt, but where do we draw the line?

As for comparisons between the Ottoman era and Crimea today, people don't need centries of oppression to actually be oppressed. The fact that they are no longer in control of their own country and foreign soldiers are on the ground is enough. Even so, I would imagine the Tartars are feeling pretty uncomfortable right now, knowing that only 60 years ago Russia deported them to Siberia in an attempted genocide. They certainly do not want to live in a Russian state - where do they join the line and how tight and for how long should they sit?

[Vangelovski]

Its the same with Kosovo, you even said it yourself, it was a matter of time. Even if the west didn't help, it would have eventually come to the same conclusion.

I said that the war in Kosovo would happen regardless, not that it would result in the same outcome.