Conflicts in the Middle East & Northern Africa

[Zarni]

Dont these pathetic new democrats get that NATO and largely the French did the work in the Air for them

[Soldier of Macedon]

I just hope they make the best of this situation and have democratic elections ASAP.

[vojnik]

I just hope they make the best of this situation and have democratic elections ASAP.

Yes "democratic"... lets all say hello to "Iraq 2.0"

[Soldier of Macedon]

It could easily go down that path too given that Libyan society is quite tribal, I guess time will tell.

[makedonche]

Democracy is all fine and well, but it's implementation comes at many costs, and is slow to implement, take Macedonia for example - 20 years of democracy and still no recognition of it's name!

[Onur]

West&NATO converting secular Arab states to sharia?

As the west&NATO orchestrated Arab spring continues, the few remaining secular Arab states are falling into the hands of islamic sharia supporters, one by one.

The day that Gaddafi lynched by a so-called "freedom fighters", NATO backed new leader of Libya made a speech in Tripoli and announced that Libya will be ruled with sharia regime from now on. He added that as a first move, ban on polygamy in Libya has been annuled;

Libya: Liberation plans
Libya has got a new national holiday. The country’s new rulers announce Libya’s liberation and victory over Muammar Gaddafi’s longtime regime on Sunday.

"We declare to the whole world that we have liberated our beloved country, with its cities, villages, hill-tops, mountains, deserts and skies," a NTC official who opened the ceremony said as quoted by Reuters.

“Declaration of Liberation. Raise your head high. You are a free Libyan,” NTC vice chairman Abdel Hafiz Ghoga said to the jubilant crowd.

The chairman of the National Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, has announced that the new laws of Libya will be based on Islamic Sharia law. He added that the banking system would conform to Islamic regulations, which prohibit interest.

He also said that a law banning polygamy has been annulled as it was a violation of Sharia law.

24 October, 2011

http://rt.com/news/libya-liberation-elections-521/

Meanwhile, first elections after the revolution in Tunisia has been completed. A new islamic party under the 70 year old man was victorious. The leader of this party lived in England for 20 years and gone to Libya just two months ago. AFAIK, Tunisia was the most secular state among all the Arab countries but after the revolution, islamist supporters of British educated newcomer leader, started attacking secular laws of the state in a strict way. The tension is quite high between secularists and islamists in the country;

Post-revolt Tunisia wrestles with resurgent Islam
For Walid, Tunisia's revolution is an opportunity to turn one of the Arab world's most secular countries towards Islam.

"We paid a heavy price for the revolution so we are not ready to let secularists and supporters of the Zionists control our destiny," said the young man, with a beard and a long white robe, after prayers in the Omrane district of the capital.

"We want to respect our religion and to apply Islamic law in our country.

"We want Islamic schools all over the country ... We do not want our women prevented from wearing the hijab and niqab (Islamic veils). We would like our country to be an Islamic country that does not allow taboo things, like wine."

The Middle East is paying close attention to how Tunisia reconciles the conflicting agendas of Islamists and secularists following the ousting of President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, and the evidence so far is that it will be a bumpy path.

Police last week used tear gas to break up a crowd of thousands of Islamists who were trying to march on the prime minister's office.

Another crowd attacked the home of a businessman whose television station broadcast the award-winning film "Persepolis." Islamists say one scene is blasphemous.

Habib Bourguiba, Tunisia's first president after independence from France in 1956, described the hijab, or Islamic head covering, as an "odious rag." Ben Ali jailed thousands of Islamists.

Many aspects of day-to-day life in Tunisia display a more relaxed attitude to Islam than exists in most Arab countries.

Alcohol is sold in bars and some shops. Many women do not cover their heads. Foreign tourists sunbathe in skimpy outfits at beach resorts. Tunisia has a vibrant Jewish community.

Secularists are sceptical about Ennahda leader Rachid Ghannouchi's assurances he will not impose Islamist values on society.

The tone of the debate is growing more shrill, especially on Facebook, Tunisia's favourite forum since the social networking site was instrumental in bringing about the revolution.

One post predicts that if Islamists win the election, Tunisia will turn into another Afghanistan.

The danger is that, whether they want it or not, both sides will be pushed into more and more radical positions.

"There is a great fear that this dispute could turn to violence in the streets if tension is raised between the two camps," said political analyst Chadli Ben Rhouma.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/1...79H49B20111018

In Egypt, a NATO backed military general ruling the state but it`s quite certain that a group called "muslim brotherhood" will win the upcoming elections and it`s quite likely that they will implement sharia laws in there.

In Syria, it can be said that Assad regime is secular but so-called Arab spring started in there too and the tension is high for months. Yesterday, Syrian PM Assad warned that if western world continues to interfere Syria, then it`s possible that the entire middle-eastern region can burst into flames and 10s of cases like Afghanistan can happen because of Syria.

Assad: challenge Syria at your peril
Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, has warned that Western action against his country would cause an "earthquake" that would "burn the whole region".

In his first interview with a Western journalist since Syria's seven-month uprising began, President Assad told The Sunday Telegraph that intervention against his regime could cause "another Afghanistan".

Western countries "are going to ratchet up the pressure, definitely," he said. "But Syria is different in every respect from Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen. The history is different. The politics is different.

"Syria is the hub now in this region. It is the fault line, and if you play with the ground you will cause an earthquake … Do you want to see another Afghanistan, or tens of Afghanistans?

"Any problem in Syria will burn the whole region. If the plan is to divide Syria, that is to divide the whole region."

Thousands of anti-government demonstrators took to the streets in two Syrian cities on Friday to demand the imposition of a Libyan-style no-fly zone over the country. According to the United Nations, at least 3,000 civilians, including 187 children, have been killed during protests against the regime. Thousands more have been imprisoned. The government says 1,200 members of the security forces have also died.

President Assad admitted that "many mistakes" had been made by his forces in the early part of the uprising, but insisted that only "terrorists" were now being targeted.

"We have very few police, only the army, who are trained to take on al-Qaeda," he said. "If you sent in your army to the streets, the same thing would happen. Now, we are only fighting terrorists. That's why the fighting is becoming much less."

He described the uprising as a "struggle between Islamism and pan-Arabism [secularism], adding: "We've been fighting the Muslim Brotherhood since the 1950s and we are still fighting with them."

In interviews in Damascus, some without government minders, secular Syrians and members of the country's substantial Christian and Alawite minorities said they supported the Assad regime for fear of their positions under a new government. Those attending a large demonstration in support of the regime last Wednesday did not appear to be coerced, according to independent observers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...our-peril.html

[Onur]

The democracy cannot be secured by only doing elections or just saying that "OK, we will be a democratic state anymore". It`s a long process, slowly digested and learned by people. After people gets used to it, then it`s demanded by them to secure it`s continuity. This sometimes takes few decades, sometimes more than a century but never less.

After 20 years, how many of the ex-Soviet states are really living in successful democracy today? In Turkey, we have democracy for about ~90 years but i can say that our democracy level is just above average. Probably no one has perfect democracy, including Nordic states but it`s even difficult to achieve above average democracy.

So, the real democracy is so far away from Arab states today. The so-called incoming democracy for them is just a blatant lie. No one becomes democratic in a day, especially not as a result of bombs. Democracy is an idea and a culture, it`s not something achieved by bombs.

[EgejskaMakedonia]

The thing is, if Gaddafi was captured alive, the remaining pro-Gaddafi loyalists would continue fighting, potentially leading the the deaths of hundreds more. With his death, momentum and motivation from pro-Gaddafi fighters will be lost, resulting in a downgrade of conflict.

In simple terms, if he remained alive, his supporters still had something to fight for. What worries me though is that I highly doubt this was the motive of the rebels who killed him. Such actions don't portray a successful democratic future, and bringing him to trial would've showed a great deal of willingness to demonstrate their ability to bring democracy to Libya.

[makedonche]

The thing is, if Gaddafi was captured alive, the remaining pro-Gaddafi loyalists would continue fighting, potentially leading the the deaths of hundreds more. With his death, momentum and motivation from pro-Gaddafi fighters will be lost, resulting in a downgrade of conflict.

In simple terms, if he remained alive, his supporters still had something to fight for. What worries me though is that I highly doubt this was the motive of the rebels who killed him. Such actions don't portray a successful democratic future, and bringing him to trial would've showed a great deal of willingness to demonstrate their ability to bring democracy to Libya.

EM
Very true....not exactly an outstanding display of democracy by any means....in fact almost the direct opposite by comparison!

[Brian]

Maybe it's too early to start a thread "The war in Iran", but by the time it happens we might not be around to write about it, so as a continuation of the theme of 'liberating' Middle-East states...people are starting to say Iran is next....

U.S. Planning Troop Buildup in Gulf After Exit From Iraq
29 Oct 2011

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/world/middleeast/united-states-plans-post-iraq-troop-increase-in-persian-gulf.html?pagewanted=all

MacDILL AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. — The Obama administration plans to bolster the American military presence in the Persian Gulf after it withdraws the remaining troops from Iraq this year, according to officials and diplomats. That repositioning could include new combat forces in Kuwait able to respond to a collapse of security in Iraq or a military confrontation with Iran.
...
...
...
With an eye on the threat of a belligerent Iran, the administration is also seeking to expand military ties with the six nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. While the United States has close bilateral military relationships with each, the administration and the military are trying to foster a new “security architecture” for the Persian Gulf that would integrate air and naval patrols and missile defense.
...

For full article click on link.

[Onur]

Iran is their ultimate and final goal. There should be others b4 Iran, like Syria, Lebanon etc. because otherwise it wouldn't be possible to confront with Iran b4 crushing other states around it. If they destroy all these states including Iran, then we can announce the start of a new century of USA/Great powers domination because this would also means the destruction of hopes of China, Russia, India becoming world powers.

Tough i don't think they can achieve this as easily as they did in Libya. They cannot easily destroy a state with ~3000 year old culture, 80 million population, sole leader of all the Shiite muslims in the world. Iran doesn't go down without starting WW-3 and without erasing Israel from the world map. Maybe thats what great powers wants, a new world war, who knows (!!!)

[Risto the Great]

There is a confidence amongst Iranians that people in the West have little comprehension of. I am positive many do not like their leadership but will most likely rally around their leader if forced into war. It would probably have the opposite effect of what the world powers want.

[Brian]

I know, it looked strange to me too to see Iran being the possible target now, but the fact still remains that a build up is happening. Dark clouds on the horizon are never a good sign.

Like you, I think the article is wrong about the next target being Iran. Maybe this article is more correct...

AP Exclusive: New signs of Syria-Pakistan nuke tie

http://news.yahoo.com/ap-exclusive-signs-syria-pakistan-nuke-tie-063913337.html

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.N. investigators have identified a previously unknown complex in Syria that bolsters suspicions that the Syrian government worked with A.Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan's atomic bomb, to acquire technology that could make nuclear arms.

The buildings in northwest Syria closely match the design of a uranium enrichment plant provided to Libya when Moammar Gadhafi was trying to build nuclear weapons under Khan's guidance, officials told The Associated Press.

The U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency also has obtained correspondence between Khan and a Syrian government official, Muhidin Issa, who proposed scientific cooperation and a visit to Khan's laboratories following Pakistan's successful nuclear test in 1998.

The complex, in the city of Al-Hasakah, now appears to be a cotton-spinning plant, and investigators have found no sign that it was ever used for nuclear production. But given that Israeli warplanes destroyed a suspected plutonium production reactor in Syria in 2007, the unlikely coincidence in design suggests Syria may have been pursuing two routes to an atomic bomb: uranium as well as plutonium.

Full article in link.

[vojnik]

Iran will be the last

[Sputnik]

Its a toss up between Iran or Syria to be next. If anyone would be last, it will be Nth Korea, they have something that Iran or Syria don't have "Yet". A major deterrent.

But it will not be USA invading (Iraq, Afghanistan style), for they don't have the money they once had, nor support (within their own country) for anymore wars. However, USA will play some roll (propaganda) and then depend on NATO to fly the flag. Even then, it would not be a ground assault, but some aerial support just like in Libya. The only thing needed now, is major uprising with in where citizens take up guns (a la Kosovo, Libya and to some extent, Macedonia). That would be the green light.