Conflicts in the Middle East & Northern Africa

[Zarni]

I found two posts on iranmilitaryforum.net

Very good reads

Factbox: How Israel and Iran shape up militarily

http://www.iranmilitaryforum.net/index.php?topic=11696.0

Analysis: War with Iran!

http://www.iranmilitaryforum.net/index.php?topic=11817.0

[Onur]

Factbox: How Israel and Iran shape up militarily

http://www.iranmilitaryforum.net/index.php?topic=11696.0

Analysis: War with Iran!

http://www.iranmilitaryforum.net/ind...?topic=11817.0

Thanks Zarni. Especially the first post is very comprehensive and makes you conclude that in reality, a war against Iran is mission impossible, which would lead to the destruction of Israeli state and all other US satellite Arabic states.

It`s mission impossible solely because of this reason;

Severely disrupted oil and gas flow. ~25% of World supply would be cut off during the war. Prices would skyrocket, a lot of countries economies would suffer, some are on the verge of bankruptcy already, war wont help them by any means.

This ~25% is only for Iranian blockage in Arabic sea. If they shoot Arabian oil facilities in any case of war, the world oil&gas shortage would be more than 25%. This means instant collapse for many industries of western countries.


It would be destructive for Israel as already confessed by them;

Israel would not only receive a lot of high-impact precise ballistic missiles from Iran (2000, or so they claimed a year ago), but also Hezbollah and Hamas would do all they can, it wont be pretty.

Israeli officers expects 2000+ missiles to be fired from Iran to the tiny Israeli land in any case of war? This would probably send back whole Israel to stone age, even without nuclear warheads. It`s out of question with nuclear tech.

[DirtyCodingHabitz]

Here's a good channel with real FACTS.
Iran Nukes (What They Feed You 109) - YouTube

[Onur]

German armed forces stationed in Crete, Greece tested US made patriot missiles which used to counter ballistic missiles by making them explode on the air b4 reaching their targets;

PATRIOT Firings from German Armed Forces in Crete
Tactical firings of the Weapon System PATRIOT were conducted on Wednesday 02 and Thursday 03 of November 2011 from German Units in NAMFI’s Range. 31 PATRIOT missiles were totally fired against ballistic missiles-targets, aerial targets and ARM carrier target that simulate ARM interception. The firing scenario simulated realistically a ballistic interception and demonstrated the allied forces capabilities to confront successfully such a threat.



ATBM PATRIOT 44η Εβδ-2011 - YouTube

November 11, 2011

http://www.defencegreece.com/index.p...rces-in-crete/

Guess why Germans put down patriot missiles in Greece and thinking about to use those against whose ballistic missiles???

Ofc against Iranian missiles but i wonder what Greeks, Cretans are thinking about that because Greece is in the range of Iranian missiles and as i said here many times b4, Iran would never hesitate to destroy any hostile US/NATO base in any case of war.

[Brian]

It's gotta make you wonder why would the West is supporting Al-Qaida in Lybia and uprooting the other Arab states, and why the Arab league is against Syria?

Washington considers selling bunker-busting bombs to UAE

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/unitedarabemirates/8883615/PIC-AND-PUB-Washington-considers-selling-bunker-busting-bombs-to-UAE.html

Washington may soon announce plans for a large sale of precision-guided bombs to the United Arab Emirates, according to US reports, as tensions mounted with Iran over its nuclear programme.

The sale of Boeing-built "bunker-buster" bombs is part of an ongoing US effort to build a regional coalition to counter Iran
11 Nov 2011
The Pentagon is considering a significant sale of Joint Direct Attack Munitions made by Boeing, adding to other recent arms deals with the UAE. Those included the sale of 500 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles about which the US Congress was notified in September.

The sale of Boeing-built "bunker-buster" bombs and other munitions to UAE, a key Gulf ally of Washington, is part of an ongoing US effort to build a regional coalition to counter Iran.

No comment on the reports was immediately available from the Pentagon's press office or the Defence Security Cooperation Agency, which oversees foreign arms sales.

Boeing has sold thousands of JDAM bombs to the United States and its allies in recent months as they have replenished their arsenal of the popular precision-guided bombs.

Boeing spokesman Garrett Kasper said the company was unable to discuss the proposed contract since it would involve a foreign military sale, something that would be discussed at a government-to-government level.

The proposed sale, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, would expand the existing capabilities of UAE's air force to target buildings such as the bunkers and tunnels where Iran is believed to be developing nuclear or other weapons. The newspaper said Washington was eyeing the sale of 4,900 of the so-called smart bombs.

Tension over Iran's nuclear program has increased since Tuesday when the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Tehran appeared to have worked on designing a bomb and may still be conducting secret research to that end.

Speculation has heightened in the Israeli media that Israel may strike Iran's nuclear sites and there is speculation in the Western press about a possible US attack.

But Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, warned that military action against Iran could have "unintended consequences" in the region. Tehran had warned earlier that an attack against its nuclear sites would be met by "iron fists".

Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful and that it is enriching uranium to run reactors for electricity generation.

The Obama administration is trying to build up the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council - Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, UAE and Kuwait - as a unified counterweight to Iran.

Recent arms deals approved by the administration include a record £40 billion plan to sell Saudi Arabia advanced F-15 aircraft, some 2,000-lb JDAMs and other powerful munitions.

The US government also approved the sale of a £4.2 billion terminal missile defence program to UAE that would be built by Lockheed Martin Corp.

Washington has also sought to build up missile-defence systems across the region, with the goal of building an integrated network to defend against short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles from Iran.
The UAE has a fleet of advanced US-made F-16 fighters, also built by Lockheed, that could carry the JDAMs.

Once the Pentagon formally notifies Congressmen about a proposed sale, they have 30 days to raise objections, although such action is rare since sales are carefully vetted with Congress before they are formally announced.

This sale will likely include other weapons systems, including military aircraft and other weapons, according to the source familiar with the plans.

[Brian]

What initially may look like strange bed-fellows - militant Islam are terrorists so let's fight Al-Qaida / Let's help Al-Qaida and others take Lybia and other Arab states and 'give' them 3000+ shoulder-mounted surface-to-air missiles. Looks like it's a case of 'My enemy's enemy is my friend for today'.

Wahhabis weave web of plot in Syria

http://presstv.com/detail/210256.html

In an unprecedented move, the Arab league decided to suspend Syria and call for sanctions on the country, an act which evidently reeks of the influence the West and others exercise on those who should be the main game players rather than being merely influenced by others. What a shame!


It is not difficult to conjecture that the move is a prelude to a US-led military invasion of Syrian in the style of the Libya war and an eventual war in the region. It hardly needs saying that the Arab League would have acted with calculated wisdom and prudence, if it had thought about the consequences of such irrationality.

The decision comes at a time when President Bashar al-Assad has accepted the reforms proposed by the Arab League.

A statement, read by the Qatari Prime Minister, Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani, said the League had decided “to suspend Syrian delegations' activities in Arab League meetings'' and to implement ''economic and political sanctions” against Damascus.

Sheikh Hamad said the suspension would last “until the total implementation [by Syria] of the Arab plan for resolving the crisis accepted by Damascus on November 2.”

In response to this move fraught with impending threat, tens of thousands of Syrians poured into the streets of Damascus, Aleppo, Latakia, Tartous and Hasakeh to protest the move which they see as clear betrayal of their country by the Arab League.

The facts on the ground suggest that there is an urging demand for social and political reforms in the country but the situation is not as bad in Syria as in other Arab countries where the hope for reforms is zero. Calling for reforms on some levels is one thing but demanding an ouster of the ruler is a horse of a different color. As the situation stands in Syria, there is little demand for the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad. However, Western powers are calling on the Syrian president to step down. The influence of Western media on the international public opinion is so powerful that they are reluctant to see a foreign hand manipulating the events.

Reports reveal that the US and Israel have hired Saudi elements and the Saudi-backed Lebanese March 14 forces in order to foment tension in the country, thereby creating a rift between the Syrian people and the government. Washington is monitoring every move with minute precision as the fate of Syria is politically of paramount importance to the empire as it serves as an ally for Iran and poses a danger to the Zionist regime. Indeed there are some parties which follow their interests in the country.

Apart from Washington who cherishes the idea of overthrowing the regime of Bashar al-Assad and installing a puppet regime in Syria with the firm intention of serving the interests of the Zionist regime in the region, the Saudi Wahhabis insist on the collapse of the Syrian regime. For Washington and Israel, the ouster of al-Assad will ensure the two regimes' vantage point in the Middle East to contain the ever-increasing influence of the Islamic Republic in the region and for the Saudis, it serves a similar purpose on a wider scope. In fact, the Saudi Wahhabis hold the Shia Muslims in abhorrence and make every possible effort to create Shiaphobia and Iranophobia in the world.

To the Wahhabis, Shia Muslims and moderate Sunnis are but infidels and should be killed and their blood is not upon their shoulders. What they conceive of the Shia Muslims is indeed a horrid image which fails to fit into any plausibly logical order. This irrational hatred becomes the prime motivation for the Wahhabis to engage in stoking up unrest in some border cities in Syria which throws full support behind Iran and Hezbollah. In a similar vein, the Saudi Wahhabis fully backed the dictatorial Bahrain regime in eliminating the Shia Muslims and crushing with brutality the popular uprising in the country. This double standard in Saudi policy deserves due attention. They back the despotic Bahraini regime which spares no efforts in quelling the pro-democracy protesters who are killed on a daily basis while on the other hand, they fund and back the insurgents in Syria to overthrow the regime. It seems that democracy is defined differently in different contexts and situations.

Parenthetically, the Saudi Wahhabis play a double game in their relations with Washington and Israel. In fact, they have an ambivalent feeling for these two. On the one hand, Wahhabis treat them with hatred and eliminate their elements under the influence of their extremism and on the other hand, they enter into easy alliance with the Zionists and the US when the trio have a common enemy in several regions of the world.

There are times when you marvel at how events happening in one place are twisted to the benefit of one group and to the loss of another.

Concerning the US interference and the conspiracy of the Saudi Wahhabis in Syria, either we should choose to remain ignorant or we should open our eyes to the reality of things with surmountable doubt and reluctance.

[Soldier of Macedon]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/muammar-gaddafis-fugitive-son-seif-al-islam-arrested/story-e6frf7lf-1226200155324

Muammar Gaddafi's fugitive son Seif al-Islam arrested, November 20, 2011

UPDATE 10.25am: OUSTED Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's fugitive son Seif al-Islam has been arrested in the south of the country, a senior National Transitional Council official says.
Seif al-Islam, Gaddafi's one-time successor who is wanted by the International Criminal Court, was "arrested in southern Libya", said NTC justice minister Mohammed al-Allagui, declining to give any details.

The ICC issued warrants on June 27 against Seif al-Islam as well as his father and Abdullah al-Senussi, the late dictator's intelligence chief, on charges of crimes against humanity in crushing anti-regime protests.

A source in Tripoli's "thwar" (revolutionary) council, made up of former rebels who toppled Gaddafi's regime, said the arrest of Seif took place in the Ubari region of the south.

The ICC's prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo predicted on November 9 that Seif's arrest was just a matter of time.

"The question is not if he will be arrested, it's when," he told a news conference at the court's headquarters in The Hague. "It's a matter of time, Seif will face justice, that's his destiny."

A week earlier, the prosecutor told the UN Security Council that the ICC had "received questions from individuals linked to Seif al-Islam about the legal conditions attaching to his potential surrender".

Seif's representatives had asked what would happen to him if he appeared before judges and the various conviction and acquittal possibilities, the prosecutor told the Security Council which referred the Libya case to the ICC.

ICC investigators have visited Libya to collect more evidence in the case against Seif and also into allegations of mass rapes by Gaddafi forces during the crackdown against protesters before the revolt turned into full-blown civil war.

Gaddafi was killed on October 20 when forces of Libya's new regime stormed his home town of Sirte.

Five days later, a Tuareg official in Niger said that both Seif and Senussi were poised to enter the country from southern Libya, while on October 27 security sources said the former intelligence chief had reached Mali.

[Big Bad Sven]

While on the topic of Syria........


Pro-Assad protesters gather in Sydney

Protests in favour of the Syrian government have taken place across the world today with hundreds gathering in Sydney to voice their support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and to pin the blame for the violence on external elements.

"All the Syrians around the world are supporting our leader," a protester in Sydney told SBS.

"There's been a big conspiracy and we know that there's a lot of killing. I have a lot of family in Syria they are being killed by the insurgents that are coming from outside."

Some protesters blamed the United States and Israel for fomenting the unrest.

Others claimed that many of the shootings have been carried out by fundamental Islamists as part of a campaign aimed at undermining the government and seizing power.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1607059/Pro-Assad-protesters-gather-in-Sydney

Its just as i thought about all of these fake "revolutions" that have been happening in eastern europe a few years ago and now the middle east. Its clear that the people who are causing trouble in the middle east are arab sell outs or muslim fanatics from soulless countries such as Saudi Arabia and Quatar. Wouldn't surprise me if the CIA or Mossad were also instigating the fire in Syria as well.

I had a few Syrian friends who came back from Syria last week and they say that life in capital is normal and everything that we here in western media is sensationalized....

[Big Bad Sven]

Regime change is the plan, destabalizing foreign Govts the game...

Syria's Opposition Is Armed
Placard-Waving Protesters are actually Machine Gun-Wielding Terrorists.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article29769.htm

excerpt from article.
The "Free Syria Army" is literally an army of militant extremists, many drawn not from Syria's military ranks, but from the Muslim Brotherhood, carrying heavy weapons back and forth over the Turkish and Lebanese borders, funded, supported, and armed by the United States, Israel, and Turkey. The latest evidence confirming this comes in the form of a report out of the International Institute for Strategic Studies where Senior Fellow for Regional Security at IISS-Middle East Emile Hokayem openly admits Syria's opposition is armed and prepared to drag Syria's violence into even bloodier depths.

[Big Bad Sven]

Russian warships are due to arrive at Syrian territorial waters, a Syrian news agency said on Thursday, indicating that the move represented a clear message to the West that Moscow would resist any foreign intervention in the country's civil unrest.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/report-russia-warships-to-enter-syria-waters-in-bid-to-stem-foreign-intervention-1.396359

Russia has started a naval base on Syrian shores that should be fully operational in late 2012, but i personally think this little horse and pony excibition from Russia will scare any one.

The Russians just talk big and in the end do nothing when push comes to shove, my personal belief is that both Russia and China always seem to be bought out or get a cut in the deal when the US and NATO invade other countries.

[Big Bad Sven]

Onur what is your opinion on the rumors that in lieu of both Syria and Iran focusing on getting good anti air defense that NATO will surprise these countries from a attack on land via Turkish territories? Remember Turkey is a good Allie to the US, Israel and Nato.....

[Onur]

Onur what is your opinion on the rumors that in lieu of both Syria and Iran focusing on getting good anti air defense that NATO will surprise these countries from a attack on land via Turkish territories? Remember Turkey is a good Allie to the US, Israel and Nato.....

There are rumors originated from Syrian and Iranian sources like in the NATO base of incirlik, Turkey (~50 year old NATO base close to Syrian border), US army officials organizing the uprising in Syria by smuggling weapons, training the rebels, providing them funds. The current AKP government denies such rumors but i don't believe them. I believe it`s highly possible that our current government allows CIA officials in the NATO base to proceed with their undercover operations. I am ashamed of our government.

BUT, this can be the maximum assistance which Turkey provides to the USA/NATO because Turkish people never accepts more than that. People here did immense pressure to our government during Iraqi war and our parliament refused for any NATO soldier to use Turkish soil for the attacks. It was same for Afghanistan too, Turkey didn't participate any hostile attacks. It will be same when NATO attacks Iran, otherwise it would be very dangerous for Turkey itself. We cannot act hostile towards Iran openly because it would be the us again who gets hurt in the end, not the Americans. They loose few hispanic and black soldiers here and there but we loose a lot from all sides like economy, geopolitical power balance, human life etc.

[Brian]

It's Syria guys.

Report: Plan for Syrian airspace closure completed

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...151524,00.html

Arab states, Turkey plan 'No-Fly Zone' over Syria

http://www.albawaba.com/news/arab-st...r-syria-402102

Onur
Do you know if Syria has a high number of Shia Muslim?

Rumors are that Syria has a high Shia population and that is why the Arab League are supporting the USA against Syria, and also it could surprise everyone, that the Arab states could later take out Iran with the green-light from the USA and Israel because of the Shia / Sunni hatred - a kind of 'my enemy's enemy is my friend (at least for today)' thing.

[Onur]

Onur
Do you know if Syria has a high number of Shia Muslim?

Rumors are that Syria has a high Shia population and that is why the Arab League are supporting the USA against Syria, and also it could surprise everyone, that the Arab states could later take out Iran with the green-light from the USA and Israel because of the Shia / Sunni hatred - a kind of 'my enemy's enemy is my friend (at least for today)' thing.

No no, Shiites are minority in Syria but the ruling family Assads are Shiites but nevertheless they are not deeply religious unlike Iranians. Syria is more or less a secular country. We can say that the Assad family are dictators but they are sharing the power with sunni and even christian groups too by giving them important roles in the administration. They are not that strict and selfish, never been.

Problem is; there is an armed sunni group called "muslim brotherhood" in Syria. They have connections with Saudis, Al-Kaida family and ofc they are puppets of the CIA. They wanna get the authority in Syria with the help of the NATO and create a sharia regime in there.

Btw none of the Arabian gulf states never acts all by themselves. These wahhabis was always puppets of the west, these Saudi emirs have been placed on their throne by the west and they are slaves of them.

More and more i am started to think that the great powers wanna create a situation where all these middle-eastern puppets fights with each other. I think they wanna start WW-3 and watch them from behind and get the juices (oil, gas, minerals) in the end after few million of them dies.

[Onur]

There are some interesting developments about Syria and NATO missile defense system.

Russia sent 3 warships to Syrian seaport to stem NATO intervention;

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-warships-syria-2011-11

The Patriarch of Antioch, Ignatius IV, has stated that international media lie regarding the situation in Syria. During a meeting with a delegation of Bulgarian academic and media figures currently visiting Syria, the Christian Orthodox Patriarch said that all Syrians – Muslims and Christians alike – live in harmony and peace, warning against the conspiracy targeting Syria.

Patriarch Ignatius IV also said that in particular Christians in Syria are not the targets of violence, as some media reports have been suggesting.

http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=134195

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia President, Says Missiles May Target U.S. Missile Defense Sites
Russia threatened on Wednesday to deploy missiles to target the U.S. missile shield in Europe if Washington fails to assuage Moscow's concerns about its plans, a harsh warning that reflected deep cracks in U.S.-Russian ties despite President Barack Obama's efforts to "reset" relations with the Kremlin.

President Dmitry Medvedev said he still hopes for a deal with the U.S. on missile defense, but he strongly accused Washington and its NATO allies of ignoring Russia's worries. He said Russia will have to take military countermeasures if the U.S. continues to build the shield without legal guarantees that it will not be aimed against Russia.

The U.S. has repeatedly assured Russia that its proposed missile defense system wouldn't be directed against Russia's nuclear forces, and it did that again Wednesday.

"I do think it's worth reiterating that the European missile defense system that we've been working very hard on with our allies and with Russia over the last few years is not aimed at Russia," said Capt. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman. "It is ... designed to help deter and defeat the ballistic missile threat to Europe and to our allies from Iran."

White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said the United States will continue to seek Moscow's cooperation, but it must realize "that the missile defense systems planned for deployment in Europe do not and cannot threaten Russia's strategic deterrent."

But Medvedev said Moscow will not be satisfied by simple declarations and wants a binding agreement. He said, "When we propose to put in on paper in the form of precise and clear legal obligations, we hear a strong refusal."

Medvedev warned that Russia will station missiles in its westernmost Kaliningrad region and other areas, if the U.S. continues its plans without offering firm and specific pledges that the shield isn't directed at its nuclear forces. He didn't say whether the missiles would carry conventional or nuclear warheads.

In Brussels, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said he was "very disappointed" with Russia's threat to deploy missiles near alliance nations, adding that "would be reminiscent of the past and ... inconsistent with the strategic relations NATO and Russia have agreed they seek."

"Cooperation, not confrontation, is the way ahead," Rasmussen said in a statement.

The U.S. missile defense dispute has long tarnished ties between Moscow and Washington. The Obama administration has repeatedly said the shield is needed to fend off a potential threat from Iran, but Russia fears that it could erode the deterrent potential of its nuclear forces.

"If our partners tackle the issue of taking our legitimate security interests into account in an honest and responsible way, I'm sure we will be able to come to an agreement," Medvedev said. "But if they propose that we `cooperate,' or, to say it honestly, work against our own interests, we won't be able to reach common ground."

Moscow has agreed to consider a proposal NATO made last fall to cooperate on the missile shield, but the talks have been deadlocked over how the system should be operated. Russia has insisted that it should be run jointly, which NATO has rejected.

Medvedev also warned that Moscow may opt out of the New START arms control deal with the United States and halt other arms control talks, if the U.S. proceeds with the missile shield without meeting Russia's demand. The Americans had hoped that the START treaty would stimulate progress in further ambitious arms control efforts, but such talks have stalled because of tension over the missile plan.

While the New START doesn't prevent the U.S. from building new missile defense systems, Russia has said it could withdraw from the treaty if it feels threatened by such a system in future.

Medvedev reaffirmed that warning Wednesday, saying that Russia may opt out of the treaty because of an "inalienable link between strategic offensive and defensive weapons."

The New START has been a key achievement of Obama's policy of improving relations with Moscow, which had suffered badly under the George W. Bush administration.

"It's impossible to do a reset using old software, it's necessary to develop a new one," Medvedev's envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, said at a news conference.

The U.S. plan calls for placing land- and sea-based radars and interceptors in European locations, including Romania and Poland, over the next decade and upgrading them over time.

Medvedev said that Russia will carefully watch the development of the U.S. shield and take countermeasures if Washington continues to ignore Russia's concerns. He warned that Moscow would deploy short-range Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, a Baltic Sea region bordering Poland, and place weapons in other areas in Russia's west and south to target U.S. missile defense sites. Medvedev said Russia would put a new early warning radar in Kaliningrad.

He said that as part of its response Russia would also equip its intercontinental nuclear missiles with systems that would allow them to penetrate prospective missile defenses and would develop ways to knock down the missile shield's control and information facilities.

Igor Korotchenko, a Moscow-based military expert, was quoted by the state RIA Novosti news agency as saying that the latter would mean targeting missile defense radars and command structures with missiles and bombers. "That will make the entire system useless," he said.

Medvedev and other Russian leaders have made similar threats in the past, and the latest statement appears to be aimed at the domestic audience ahead of Dec. 4 parliamentary elections.

Medvedev, who is set to step down to allow Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to reclaim the presidency in March's election, leads the ruling United Russia party list in the parliamentary vote. A stern warning to the U.S. and NATO issued by Medvedev seems to be directed at rallying nationalist votes in the polls.

Rogozin, Russia's NATO envoy, said the Kremlin won't follow the example of Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and take unwritten promises from the West.

"The current political leadership can't act like Gorbachev, and it wants written obligations secured by ratification documents," Rogozin said.

Medvedev's statement was intended to encourage the U.S. and NATO to take Russia seriously at the missile defense talks, Rogozin said. He added that the Russian negotiators were annoyed by the U.S. "openly lying" about its missile defense plans.

"We won't allow them to treat us like fools," he said. "Nuclear deterrent forces aren't a joke."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/1...n_1109660.html

Medvedev Goes Ballistic: Russian missiles in West's backyard? - YouTube