Financial Crisis in Greece

[thessalo-niki]

Nope, this is not possible because if such a condition arises, then Turkish people buys all the islands. No one in EU prefers something like that, so it`s not possible.

Is this municipal elections for the provinces?

Well Thesso, it was not so long ago Neos Kozmos here in Australia wrote about an Islands willness to break away from Greece if Greece did not improve its hospitals, roads etc... and that under its constitution it can break as Greece is only hold the title of Administrator.

So...... poof........ get ready for a backlash in your local elections

a lot of islands resent the meddling by mainland greece.They have been neglected on many issues & are waiting to explode.

In case you're seriously asking, and this is not a contest for the dumbest comment:
-No, there are not Greek islands that have a... special constitution or belong to Greece in a different way than its other territories
-No, there are no separatist movements or politicians in Greece. Even if you mean silly, insignificant public statements I'm not aware of any, so I would like to see one.
-No, while (a few hundreds) small islands are private properties of individuals, who may be non-Greeks (e.g. British, Turks, Israelis) they are still part of Greece (not UK, Turkey or Israel).
-"Mainland Greece" does not "meddle in the islands". What the hell does that mean anyway? Small, remote and under-populated islands mostly depend on state support and economic privileges for development (e.g. lower taxes, low electricity prices etc).
-Yes, the provincial elections are in two months from now. Under the new law mayors and peripheriarchs are elected. Peripheries are the new super-provinces, so (among others) three super-administrators will be elected for the first time for Western Macedonia, Central Macedonia (Zorro is candidate) and Eastern Macedonia-Thrace.
-Whatever backlash you're expecting in local elections, 2 months is not far from now (e.g. most candidates are already known), so, maybe we can have a bet.
__________________________________________
Odysseas Elytis - Our name is our soul

[Daskalot]

this is an important article so here it is in full:

08/18/2010

Entering a Death Spiral?
Tensions Rise in Greece as Austerity Measures Backfire

By Corinna Jessen in Athens

Photo Gallery: 6 Photos
DPA

The austerity measures that were supposed to fix Greece's problems are dragging down the country's economy. Stores are closing, tax revenues are falling and unemployment has hit an unbelievable 70 percent in some places. Frustrated workers are threatening to strike back.

The feast of the Assumption of Mary on Aug. 15 is the high point of summer in the Greek Orthodox world. Here in one of the country's many churches, believers pray to the Virgin for mercy, with many of them falling to their knees.

The newspaper Ta Nea has recommended that the Greek government adopt the very same approach -- the country's leaders have to hope that Mary comes up with a miracle to save Greece from a serious crisis, the paper writes. Without divine intervention, the newspaper suggested, it will be a difficult autumn for the Mediterranean state.

This dire prognosis comes even despite Athens' massive efforts to sort out the country's finances. The government's draconian austerity measures have managed to reduce the country's budget deficit by an almost unbelievable 39.7 percent, after previous governments had squandered tax money and falsified statistics for years. The measures have reduced government spending by a total of 10 percent, 4.5 percent more than the EU and International Monetary Fund (IMF) had required.

The problem is that the austerity measures have in the meantime affected every aspect of the country's economy. Purchasing power is dropping, consumption is taking a nosedive and the number of bankruptcies and unemployed are on the rise. The country's gross domestic product shrank by 1.5 percent in the second quarter of this year. Tax revenue, desperately needed in order to consolidate the national finances, has dropped off. A mixture of fear, hopelessness and anger is brewing in Greek society.

Unemployment Rates of up to 70 Percent

Nikos Meletis is neatly dressed, and his mid-range car is clean and tidy. Meletis used to earn a good living at a shipbuilding company in Perama, a port opposite the island of Salamis. "At the moment, I'm living off my savings," the 54-year-old welder says, standing in front of a silent harbor full of moored ships.

Meletis is a day laborer who used to work up to 300 days a year; this year he has only managed to scrape together 25 days' work so far. That gives him 25 health insurance stamps, when he needs 100 in order to insure himself and his family -- including his wife, who has cancer. "How am I supposed to pay for the hospital?" Meletis asks. Unemployment benefits of at most €460 ($590) per month are available for a maximum of one year -- and only if he can produce at least 150 stamps from the past 15 months.

There's hardly a worker in the shipbuilding district of Perama who could still manage that. Unemployment in the city hovers between 60 and 70 percent, according to a study conducted by the University of Piraeus. While 77 percent of Greek shipping companies indicate they are satisfied with the quality of work done in Perama, nearly 50 percent still send their ships to be repaired in Turkey, Korea or China. Costs are too high in Greece, they say. The country, they argue, has too much bureaucracy and too many strikes, with labor disputes often delaying delivery times.

Perama is certainly an unusually extreme case. But the shipyards' decline provides a telling example of the Greek economy's increasing inability to compete. Barely any of the country's industries can keep up with international competition in terms of productivity, and experts expect the country's gross domestic product to fall by 4 percent over the course of the entire year. Germany, by way of comparison, is hoping for growth of up to 3 percent.

Sales Figures Dropping Everywhere

Prime Minister George Papandreou's austerity package has seriously shaken the Greek economy. The package included reducing civil servants' salaries by up to 20 percent and slashing retirement benefits, while raising numerous taxes. The result is that Greeks have less and less money to spend and sales figures everywhere are dropping, spelling catastrophe for a country where 70 percent of economic output is based on private consumption.

A short jaunt through Athens' shopping streets reveals the scale of the decline. Fully a quarter of the store windows on Stadiou Street bear red signs reading "Enoikiazetai" -- for rent. The National Confederation of Hellenic Commerce (ESEE) calculates that 17 percent of all shops in Athens have had to file for bankruptcy.

Things aren't any better in the smaller towns. Chalkidona was, until just a few years ago, a hub for trucking traffic in the area around Thessaloniki. Two main streets, lined with fast food restaurants and stores catering to truckers, intersect in the small, dismal town. Maria Lialiambidou's house sits directly on the main trucking route. Rent from a pastry shop on the ground floor of the building used to provide her with €350 per month, an amount that helped considerably in supplementing her widow's pension of €320.

These days, though, Kostas, the man who ran the pastry shop, who people used to call a "penny-pincher," can no longer afford the rent. Here too, a huge "Enoikiazetai" banner stretches across the shopfront. No one wants to rent the store. Neither are there any takers for an empty butcher's shop a few meters further on.

A sign on the other side of the street advertises "Sakis' Restaurant." The owner, Sakis, is still hanging on, with customers filling one or two of the restaurant's tables now and then. "There's really no work for me here anymore," says one Albanian employee, who goes by the name Eleni in Greece. "Many others have already gone back to Albania, where it's not any worse than here. We'll see when I have to go too."

No Way Out

The entire country is in the grip of a depression. Everything seems to be going downhill. The spiral is continuing unabated, and there is no clear way out. The worse part, however, is the fact that hardly anyone still hopes that things will improve one day.

The country's unemployment rate makes this trend particularly clear. In 2009, it was 9.5 percent. This year it may rise to 12.1 percent and economists expect it to reach 14.3 percent in 2011. Those, though, are only the official numbers, which were provided by Angel Gurría, secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The Greek trade union association GSEE considers those numbers far too optimistic. It considers 20 percent to be a more likely figure for 2011. This would put the unemployment rate as high as it was in 1960, when hundreds of thousands of Greeks were forced to emigrate. Meanwhile, purchasing power has fallen to its 1984 level, according to the GSEE.

'Things Are Starting to Simmer'

Menelaos Givalos, a professor of political science at Athens University, has appeared on television, warning viewers that the worst times are still to come. He predicts a large wave of layoffs starting in September, with "extreme social consequences."

"Everything is getting more expensive, I'm hardly earning any money, and then I'm supposed to pay more taxes to help save the country? How is that supposed to work?" asks Nikos Meletis, the shipbuilder. His friends, gathered in a small cafeteria on the pier in Perama, are gradually growing more vocal. They are all unemployed, desperate and angry at the politicians who got them into this mess. There is no sympathy here for any of the political parties and no longer any for the unions either.

"They only organize strikes to serve their own interests!" shouts one man, whose name is Panayiotis Peretridis. "The only thing that interests me anymore is my daily wage. A loaf of bread is my political party. I want to help my country -- give me work and I'll pay taxes! But our honor as first-class skilled workers, as heads of families, as Greeks, is being dragged through the dirt!"

"If you take away my family's bread, I'll take you down -- the government needs to know that," Meletis says. "And don't call us anarchists if that happens! We're heads of our families and we're desperate."

He predicts the situation will only become more heated. "Things are starting to simmer here," he says. "And at some point they're going to explode."

It is time for the smart Greeks to abandon ship.......

[Mikail]

And according to you Thesso.... Macedonia is Greek and Macedonians are Greek! Right?

Wrong my friend.... A Greek is an amalgamation of a Macedonian, a Turk, an Albanian a Gypsy and a Vlah!

Modern day Greeks are are a converted peoples from the above mentioned ethnic groups.

You seem to have many things confused Thessola-Niki.

Time you faced the truth. It's not Thessaloniki, it's Solun!

[Dejan]

So... that's why they want to rechristen themselves as Macedonians so much! They've 'outgrown' their old shell and wish to move onto another one...

[fyrOM]

ThessaloNiki those figures were not exactly what I meant as they are election results but instead I was hoping someone might know like Greeks x percent Turks y percent Vlaghs z percent ect including what you call Slav Macedonians of the population in the 3 Macedonian regions in Greece.

It goes towards rounding out a theory I have that although the west are very stupid sometimes they are not stupid always and that such a referendum is possible but only at the right time and when they know the results will be in their favour QED.

[thessalo-niki]

ThessaloNiki those figures were not exactly what I meant as they are election results but instead I was hoping someone might know like Greeks x percent Turks y percent Vlaghs z percent ect including what you call Slav Macedonians of the population in the 3 Macedonian regions in Greece.

It goes towards rounding out a theory I have that although the west are very stupid sometimes they are not stupid always and that such a referendum is possible but only at the right time and when they know the results will be in their favour QED.

You're joking, right? Based on European Elections of 2004 and 2009 the Rainbow Party percentages are about 0,9% (in Western Macedonia) and 0,1% (same in Central Macedonia and Eastern Macedonia & Thrace). If that looks disappointing, well it's even worse because the people of Rainbow Party self-define as non-Greek ethnic-Macedonians, but are not irredentists. (A total of about 3000 votes)
Vlachs have never had a political party, political identity or solid issues. I think Romania made some attempts to approach them at late 1800s till early 1900s, but that's all forgotten now.
Muslims of Thrace (self-define as Turks) are indeed a solid minority that was never actually penetrated by Greek parties and ideas (maybe only some young people, who knows). They're usually guided by the Turkish Consul of Thrace. Their collaboration with the Greek parties is a cat and mouse game that goes forever. Their percentage is 0,6-0,7% of Greece’s population, so they usually elect 2 MPs (or 3 if they get lucky).
Their big effort was in the early 90s when they had independent parties for 3 or 4 consecutive elections. They appear only in Eastern Macedonia & Thrace with a percentage of about 13%. (A total of about 45000 votes)

PS: I don't know if the Rainbow Party or the Muslims of Thrace will have candidate Peripheriarchs or Mayors. The Muslims certainly contest and elect some Mayors.
__________________________________
Odysseas Elytis - Our name is our soul

[fyrOM]

ThessaloNiki what I was trying to find out was leaving the rest of Greece out in a hypothetical case and only looking at residents within the 3 Macedonian regions how would people vote if nothing to do with political parties and any other political or economic issues and solely concentrated on one question of what they saw as their ethnic identity and would they if it became possible to secede from Greece within an eu context

According to https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/gr.html Greece has a population of 10,737,428 (July 2010 est.) I would guess most of which live outside the Macedonian regions. Likewise I would think those identifying themselves as non ethnic Greeks ie Macedonian Turkish Vlah Roma Albanian ect would be most concentrated in the Macedonian regions and would represent different proportions to what they would be in the wider population ie ethnic group x is 1 percent in Greece over all but 15 percent in the Macedonian regions. Given such a likelihood what would the proportions of ethnic mix be if anyone knows. I suspect that even this concentration would not outnumber the ethnic Greeks in the regions.

[thessalo-niki]

ThessaloNiki what I was trying to find out was leaving the rest of Greece out in a hypothetical case and only looking at residents within the 3 Macedonian regions how would people vote if nothing to do with political parties and any other political or economic issues and solely concentrated on one question of what they saw as their ethnic identity and would they if it became possible to secede from Greece within an eu context.

I’m afraid that except for the groups I mentioned in my previous post they would describe themselves as Greeks. I’m not avoiding the secession question; it’s just so outrageous and unrealistic that I have no base for making estimation. Greeks always fight each other but wouldn’t easily break their country in pieces, especially if there’s no reason in horizon. That is why no one has ever posed or discussed such a question.

According to https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/gr.html Greece has a population of 10,737,428 (July 2010 est.) I would guess most of which live outside the Macedonian regions. Likewise I would think those identifying themselves as non ethnic Greeks ie Macedonian Turkish Vlah Roma Albanian ect would be most concentrated in the Macedonian regions and would represent different proportions to what they would be in the wider population ie ethnic group x is 1 percent in Greece over all but 15 percent in the Macedonian regions. Given such a likelihood what would the proportions of ethnic mix be if anyone knows. I suspect that even this concentration would not outnumber the ethnic Greeks in the regions.

As you have probably heard the ethnic mix of Greece is unknown. The latest development is that religion will also be excluded in future censuses, since it is considered now a “sensitive private data”. Thus, religion mix will soon be uncertain.
Immigrants: I’m not sure of the trends among the immigrants, but it seems the 2nd generation or the so called 1 ½ generation, develops Greek identity and wants to fit in. That’s very early to say.
Example: Last week I had an Albanian plumber at home. After he finished his work and drank all my beers he told me his life story. A typical case of a 40 something Albanian who first came as an illegal immigrant in the early 90s, made some money, then lost it in the ‘pyramid crisis’ in Albania. He was married with a North Ipirote woman (i.e. a woman from the Greek minority of Albania) and had two small kids. He said he sees no future in Albania and doesn’t think of returning sooner or later. What impressed me most was when he said he has satellite TV but watches Albanian programs only late at night because he doesn’t want his kids to learn Albanian; he wants them to grow up as genuine Greeks. Of course I don’t know if that is the exception or the rule.
Under the new law, all immigrants will have voting rights; even non-citizens will have voting rights for local elections. Thus, we’re mostly interested in Albanian immigrants and their future is often debated in Greece.

Gypsies have no political or national identity; they’re just a hopeless group, even in terms of claiming anything about their future. They live in a different reality, country, society and century. I wouldn’t risk any statement about their beliefs.
__________________________________
Odysseas Elytis - Our name is our soul

[Mikail]

As you have probably heard the ethnic mix of Greece is unknown.

You are kidding Aren't you

[fyrOM]

Not a bad idea Dejan. Maybe the people in Egejska Greeks and all can secede and join RoM. Unlike Greece we are a progressive multi ethnic state with better financial management and prospects. Best part they wouldn’t even need to shift I would guess for most.

[fyrOM]

Looks like less tax for the Greek government…maybe it’s the desired outcome if other countries are covering the tab.

180 thousand companies in Greece to stop payments to the state

ATHENS - Because of recession , 180 thousand companies in Greece are about to cease payments to the state , according to Greek media. Such results are visible from a document known as Site krizataa made by the Ministry of Labour , announced today Imersija newspaper .
The document states that companies that are unable to tender 20 percent of all firms in the country. The largest companies have problems in the northern part of the state.

[Coolski]

The largest companies have problems in the northern part of the state.

What could this mean?

[Mikail]

EU policy in Greece 'risks civil war'
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Italy
September 5, 2010

GREECE'S austerity measures cannot prevent default and will lead to a breakdown of political order if continued for long, a leading German economist has warned.

''This tragedy does not have a solution,'' said Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the prestigious IFO Institute in Munich.

''The policy of forced 'internal devaluation', deflation, and depression could risk driving Greece to the edge of a civil war. It is impossible to cut wages and prices by 30 per cent without major riots,'' he told the elite European House Ambrosetti forum at Lake Como.

''Greece would have been bankrupt without the rescue measures. All the alternatives are terrible but the least terrible is for the country to get out of the eurozone, even if this kills the Greek banks,'' he said.

Dr Sinn said Greece was an entirely different case from Spain and Portugal, which still have manageable public debts and can bring their public finances back into line with higher taxes. ''Greece would have defaulted in the period between April 28 and May 7, had the money not been promised by the European Union,'' he said, describing the failure of the EU's bailout strategy to include a haircut for the banks as an invitation to moral hazard.

''There should be a quasi-insolvency procedure for countries. Creditors have to accept a haircut before any money flows for rescue plans, otherwise we'll never have debt discipline in the eurozone,'' he said.

Greek society has so far held together well, despite a wave of strikes and street violence in the early months of the crisis. However, unemployment is rising fast and political fatigue with such austerity policies typically sets in during the second year.

Under the rescue deal, the eurozone pledged €80 billion ($A112 billion) of new loans at 5 per cent interest and the International Monetary Fund offered a further €30 billion.

The joint bailout was hoped to safeguard Greece against the pressure from global capital markets for 2½ years, but the relief rally proved short. Spreads on longer-term Greek government debt have surged back to crisis levels of about 800 basis points, implying a high risk of default.

''We are in the second Greek crisis right now, today,'' said Dr Sinn.

Greece is undergoing what amounts to an IMF austerity package but without the IMF cure of debt restructuring or devaluation that is usual for a country with a spiralling public debt and a chronic loss of competitiveness.

The IMF says Greece's debt will rise to 150 per cent of gross domestic product by 2013-2014, even if Athens complies fully, a strategy viewed as self-defeating by several former IMF officials.

There is a strong suspicion that the real objective is to bail out North European banks, rather than help Greece.

TELEGRAPH

http://www.theage.com.au/world/eu-policy-in-greece-risks-civil-war-20100904-14v9z.html

[Mikail]

Greece default risk is 'substantial,' Pimco man says
September 7, 2010 - 7:18AM

Greece still faces a "substantial" default risk as insolvency prevents the nation from repaying its debt when its bailout program expires in three years, Pacific Investment Management Co. fund manager Andrew Bosomworth said.

"Greece is insolvent," Bosomworth, Munich-based head of portfolio management at Pimco, which oversees the world's largest bond fund, said in a telephone interview today. "I see it as being quite a substantial risk that Greece eventually defaults or restructures."

In a best-case scenario, Greece's government debt will swell to 150 per cent of gross domestic product, Bosomworth said. The European Union-led rescue package assumes the Athens-based government will tap investors for 82 billion euros ($US106 billion) during the life of the bailout program, "and that's I think going to be very difficult," he said.

"Debt servicing as a share of government revenue will increase substantially, particularly if current yield levels do not decline," Bosomworth said.

The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds over German equivalents is now 902 basis points, compared with 785 basis points at the end of June. Greek 10-year debt yielded 11.24 per cent today. The Spanish spread is at 173 basis points, Portugal's is at 331 basis points and Ireland's is at 340 basis points.

Greek Yields

The premiums investors charge to hold Spanish and Irish debt over German bunds are wider than before the EU announced its rescue package on May 10.

If the interest rates of other southern European countries "stay where they are, they are going to have some problems as well," Bosomworth said. "You have the contagion risk and until we know precisely how this contagion risk will be contained, it is a pretty risky strategy staying in the other countries as well."

The euro slumped 21 per cent from a November 2009 peak through a June trough this year as the threat of contagion from Greece's financial crisis prompted investors to sell other euro-region assets. The country ran up a budget deficit of 13.6 per cent of GDP last year on debt of 115.1 percent of total output, the European Commission estimated in May. Greece's debt will swell to 124.9 per cent this year, the commission said.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/greece-default-risk-is-substantial-pimco-man-says-20100907-14y9z.html

[Currency Trader]

EU Probes Hidden Greek Deals

By Alan Katz and Elisa Martinuzzi - Sep 8, 2010 12:01 AM

Four months after the 110 billion- euro ($140 billion) bailout for Greece, the nation still hasn’t disclosed the full details of secret financial transactions it used to conceal debt.

“We have not seen the real documents,” Walter Radermacher, head of the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat, said in a Sept. 2 interview in his Luxembourg office. Eurostat first requested the contracts in February.

-------

Greece is the only euro country that lied about using these complex swap contracts after Eurostat told countries to report them in 2008, Radermacher, 58, said

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-07/greek-debt-deals-hidden-from-eu-probed-as-400-yield-gap-shows-bond-doubts.html