Financial Crisis in Greece

[Daskalot]

Native Americans, Aboriginals, Amazonian tribes, Kalash, etc. dont have countries of their own. In this case only I support "minority" status. Those are exceptions to the rule.

So you are negating the fact that Macedonians lived in the part of Macedonia that was annexed by Greece in 1913?

[Voltron]

No, I am not but why put a minority label on them ? On they on the verge of extinction ?

[Big Chukalo]

Face it Voltron, the RoG was given territories in which they had to manufacture Greeks, where Greeks didn't exist. Greece had no business being handed Lerin, Voden, and more than half of Kostur. And those are just the obvious ones. Leave alone for a second that the people of Macedonia were never given the opportunity to decide their own fate. So, do us all a favour and stop the minority bullshit. You were the minority where I come from (if you ever really existed at all)

[George S.]

it us a fact that prior to 1913 the greeks in the aegean were a minority of about 10%.They even had greek embassy in solun.All that changed when they occupied militarily & illegally

[Voltron]

Face it Voltron, the RoG was given territories in which they had to manufacture Greeks, where Greeks didn't exist. Greece had no business being handed Lerin, Voden, and more than half of Kostur. And those are just the obvious ones. Leave alone for a second that the people of Macedonia were never given the opportunity to decide their own fate. So, do us all a favour and stop the minority bullshit. You were the minority where I come from (if you ever really existed at all)

You know what BC ? I sometimes wonder what would of happened if the Bulgarians got there first. How would you identify yourself today and if this would even be an issue right now. There has been times when Greece itself encouraged a Macedonian identity to check Bulgarian desires in Macedonia.

As far as what should of been handed over. Well we hand Treaty of Sevres on the table. We got overzelous and lost. It happens.

[Big Chukalo]

You know what BC ? I sometimes wonder what would of happened if the Bulgarians got there first. How would you identify yourself today and if this would even be an issue right now. There has been times when Greece itself encouraged a Macedonian identity to check Bulgarian desires in Macedonia.

As far as what should of been handed over. Well we hand Treaty of Sevres on the table. We got overzelous and lost. It happens.

I think what you are implying (walking that fine line as you are want to do) is that we would have just been absorbed into the Bulgarian ethos, and that would have been the end of it.

Listen, the Bulgarians were sniffing around Macedonia just like the Greeks, and they won over their fair share, just like the Greeks, but, at the end of the day, Macedonians exist today because there were people who weren't having any of it.

[Niko777]

Greece cozying up to its old Turkish rival

As a young Greek from a prestigious business school, Panagiotis Afchoudias, 30, surprised his friends when he decided to start his career in Turkey six years ago. “My friends in Greece were skeptical,” Mr. Afchoudias said. “They thought I was leaping into hell, going over to the home of our enemy.”

Such concerns melted away in recent years, however, as Greeks watched their country fall into crisis and the Turkish economy flourish next door. The Greek economy shrank at an annual rate of 7 per cent in the last quarter of 2011, while Turkey enjoyed 9-per-cent growth last year. The sharp difference in growth rates has helped to reverse some long-standing trends: After suffering decades of prejudice and declining numbers, the tiny Greek community in Turkey is enjoying a modest expansion. More than a century of mutual hostility between the two countries has given way to a sevenfold increase in bilateral trade over the past decade.

Mr. Afchoudias, who now works as a business consultant for Greek companies looking to expand into Turkey, says Greeks have let go of their old antagonistic views. Greek businesses are compensating for shrinking domestic sales by moving into the Turkish market, he said, and workers are looking east in search of employment.

“Now my friends ask me to find jobs for them here,” Mr. Afchoudias said, gesturing with a glass of strong Turkish tea at the skyline of Istanbul.

Millions of Greeks once lived in the borders of modern Turkey. After four major wars, however, the Lausanne Treaty in 1923 relocated most of them to Greece. A few hundred thousand remained, but their numbers dwindled after violent incidents such as the anti-Greek riots of 1955 encouraged them to move away.

The original Greek community in Turkey now consists of perhaps 1,500 to 2,500 people, most of them senior citizens, but their numbers have stabilized with an influx of newcomers who have reversed the population trend.

“The decline of the community has stopped,” said Marina Drymalitou, a project manager at a Greek association in Istanbul. “Of course this is because of the economic development of Turkey and the rapprochement of the two sides. They are discovering their neighbours again.”

The thaw in relations started during better times for Greece, however, as politicians on both sides of the border took steps in the late 1990s to start healing old wounds.

“All states, including Turkey and Greece, needed to re-evaluate their place in the global system,” said Harry Tzimitras, an assistant professor of international relations at Istanbul Bilgi University. “There was an understanding that things needed to change.”

Emergency crews from both countries co-operated during the aftermath of the 1999 earthquakes, a dramatic moment of cross-border fraternity. The relationship continued to grow closer as the two countries signed more than 50 bilateral agreements over the past 10 years, Mr. Tzimitras said, bringing them closer on matters of trade, economy, sports, and culture. “The perceptions started to change, little by little,” he said.

Turkey has not emerged as a refuge for unemployed Greeks from the working classes, however.

Haris Rigas, 29, a doctoral student in political anthropology whose thesis work focuses on the Greek community in Turkey, says significant hurdles remain for ordinary migrants. The local bureaucracy makes it relatively easy for a Greek businessman to set up a company in Turkey in a matter of a few weeks, he said, but less wealthy people would struggle with problems of language, residency permits, property ownership restrictions, and a lack of adequate Greek-language schools for their children.

“I have not met a single Greek housecleaner or factory worker here,” Mr. Rigas said. “For economic migrants it's not tempting – but for businessmen, yes.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/greece-cozying-up-to-its-old-turkish-rival/article2342926/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=World&utm_content=2342926

I think we could have achieved a similar effect with Aegean Macedonians and the Republic of Macedonia if only the Macedonian government invested more funds in Bitola and Gevgelija, instead of spending only on Skopje and Tetovo which has attracted many Albanians to those cities.

[George S.]

That's right macedonia was partitioned amongst ravenous wolves who wanted more.If the bulgarians came a couple of hours sooner they would have got the agean area.Greece would have got nothing.
Would you like to know the real reason why the greeks needed the macedonian lands.Because athens was a swamp and the recently revived state wanted to expand & bring new settlers from the asia minor all those prosfeges.The agean area fitted the bill as the most suitable.At one point the serbs & greeks had agreement to fight to stop the bulgarians from muscling in on greece's turf.Just remember that greece has never before occupied the agean area so for the first time after 1913 it did.

[Brian]

A different view on Greek police (and why there may be EU police there in the not too distant future).


Thousands of remaining Greek police resigned yesterday to join the people in their revolution.
(https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...&type=1&ref=nf)


@Voltron
I know in many posts you've tried to play down the severity of events in Greece but pictures (even just these on the MTO) say a thousand words, could you swallow your pride for a moment and comment on something I heard unofficially - that in the back streets of Athens it is possible to buy a Kalashnikov for EUR100-00 and that some people are buying them. Tell us if you know this to be true or even if you have heard street rumours of it?

[Bill77]

Greece: broken promises
view video

http://www.euronews.net/2012/02/17/greece-broken-promises/

QUOTE 1: "There are 20,000 desist in Greece that still get a pension every month"

[Brian]

The Greeks must be F'ed when even the Greek gods can't find an answer to their problems. I love they included 2 black (authentic) Greek gods.LOL.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=mV98aRJ_IdQ

[Brian]

For once a good-news piece for a change.

Just goes to show if you stay away from the EU and IMF and the 'vampire banks' you could be better off, but in any event at least it would be your way.

Iceland's Viking Victory

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100015053/icelands-viking-victory/

February 17th, 2012
Congratulations to Iceland.

Fitch has upgraded the country to investment grade BBB – with stable outlook, expecting government debt to peak at 100pc of GDP.
The OECD's latest forecast said growth will be 2.4pc this year, after 2.9pc in 2011.

Unemployment will fall from 7pc last year to 6.1pc this year and then 5.3pc in 2013.

The current account deficit was 11.2pc in 2010. It will shrink to 3.4pc this year, and will be almost disappear next year.

The strategy of devaluation behind capital controls has rescued the economy. (Yes, I know there is a dispute about exchange controls, but that is a detail.) The country has held its Nordic welfare together and preserved social cohesion. It is slowly prospering again, though private debt weighs heavy.

Nobody is forcing the elected government out of office or appointing technocrats as prime minister. The Althingi sits untrammeled in its island glory, the oldest parliament in the world (930 AD).
The outcome is a vindication of sovereign currencies and national central banks able to respond to shocks.

The contrast with the unemployment catastrophe and debt-deflation spirals across Europe's arc of depression is by now crystal clear. Those EMU shroud-wavers who persist in arguing that exit from the Europe would be suicidal will have to start coming up with a better argument.
Is it now so clear the Iceland will join the EU and the euro? Don't bet on it.

Here is the Fitch text:
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Iceland's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BBB-' from 'BB+' and affirmed its Long-term local currency IDR at 'BBB+'. Its Short-term foreign currency IDR has also been upgraded to 'F3' from 'B' and its Country Ceiling to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. The Outlooks on the Long-term ratings are Stable.

"The restoration of Iceland's Long-term foreign currency rating to investment grade reflects the progress that has been made in restoring macroeconomic stability, pushing ahead with structural reform and rebuilding sovereign creditworthiness since the 2008 banking and currency crisis," says Paul Rawkins, Senior Director in Fitch's Sovereign Rating Group.

"Iceland has successfully exited its IMF programme and gained renewed access to international capital markets. A promising economic recovery is underway, financial sector restructuring is well-advanced, while public debt/GDP appears to be close to peaking on the back of a robust fiscal consolidation programme," added Rawkins.

As the first country to suffer the full force of the global financial crisis, Iceland successfully completed a three-year IMF-supported rescue programme in August 2011. Despite some setbacks along the way, the programme laid the foundations for renewed access to international capital markets in mid-2011 and an encouraging rebound in economic growth to 3% for 2011 as a whole. Flexible labour and product markets and a floating exchange rate have facilitated the correction of external imbalances and contained the rise in unemployment, while the financial system has shrunk to one fifth of its former size.

Iceland has been among the front runners on fiscal consolidation in advanced economies: the primary deficit has contracted from 6.5% of GDP in 2009 to 0.5% in 2011 and Iceland appears to be on track to attain primary fiscal surpluses from 2012 and headline surpluses from 2014.

Fitch believes that gross general government debt may have peaked at around 100% of GDP in 2011 (excluding potential Icesave liabilities); net debt is significantly lower at around 65% of GDP, reflecting appreciable deposits at the Central Bank (CBI). Barring further shocks, Iceland should see a sustained reduction in its public debt/GDP ratio from 2012, assuming economic recovery continues and the government adheres to its medium term fiscal targets. Ample general government deposits at the CBI and record foreign exchange reserves
ameliorate near-term fiscal financing concerns. However, the risk of additional contingent liabilities migrating to the sovereign's balance sheet remains high.

Iceland's unorthodox crisis policy response has succeeded in preserving sovereign creditworthiness in the face of unprecedented financial sector distress. However, legacy issues remain, notably the protracted dispute over Icesave, an offshore branch of the failed Landsbanki that accepted foreign exchange deposits in the UK and the Netherlands, and the slow unwinding of capital controls imposed in 2008.

The impact of Icesave on Iceland's sovereign creditworthiness has diminished over time and Landsbanki has begun to remunerate deposit liabilities. Nonetheless, Fitch considers that Icesave still has the capacity to raise public debt by 6%-13% of GDP, should an EFTA Court ruling go against Iceland. Resolution of Icesave will be important for restoring normal relations with external creditors and removing this uncertainty for public finances.

Capital controls continue to block repatriation of USD3bn-USD4bn of non-resident investment in ISK-denominated public debt and deposit instruments. Fitch acknowledges that Iceland's exit from capital controls promises to be lengthy, given the underlying risks to macroeconomic stability, fiscal financing and the newly restructured commercial banks' deposit base.

So far, Iceland has been relatively unaffected by the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and, although growth is expected to slow to 2%-2.5% in 2012-13, Fitch does not expect Iceland to slip back into recession. However, the private sector remains heavily indebted – household debt exceeds 200% of disposable income and corporate debt 210% of GDP – highlighting the need for further domestic debt restructuring, while the key export sector has been held back by capacity constraints and a lack of investment exacerbated in part by the slow unwinding of capital controls.

Fitch says that future sovereign rating actions will take a broad range of factors into account including continued economic recovery and fiscal consolidation and progress towards public and external debt reduction. Iceland is still a relatively high income country with standards of governance, human development and ease of doing business more akin to a high grade sovereign than low investment grade. Accelerated private sector domestic debt restructuring, a progressive unwinding of capital controls, normalisation of relations with external creditors and enduring monetary and exchange rate stability would help to further advance Iceland's investment grade status.

[George S.]

in the scheme of things greece was only 2% of the eu debt.Hardly a ripple.Italy is destined with it's trillion debt to head the same way as greece.What's proven is you can't just keep throwing money at it & expect to improve.In effect after the austerity measures have failed then that's it they are left on their own.The debt is largely insurmountable.They only got themselves to blame.

[Voltron]

@Voltron
I know in many posts you've tried to play down the severity of events in Greece but pictures (even just these on the MTO) say a thousand words, could you swallow your pride for a moment and comment on something I heard unofficially - that in the back streets of Athens it is possible to buy a Kalashnikov for EUR100-00 and that some people are buying them. Tell us if you know this to be true or even if you have heard street rumours of it?

I dont know about the Kalishnikov but let me ask you this way. If I have been feeding you for the last 20 years of your life great food, great hours, great vacation time, great security and one day I tell you its all over. Does that mean you will die ? Or would it seem like it just because the change is so drastic and abrupt ? This is more psycological than anything else. Greeks are pretty good and expressing themselves so adamntly that a foregner would think he is about to drop dead of a coronary.

Case point. During the fires in Greece people were screaming and cursing how the helicopters were too slow in dousing the fires. How the fire trucks were slow in reacting, etc etc.

Then in California that same year where thousands of acres and rich homes were burnt to a crisp. You would see a different type of people with a sense of understanding that there was nothing that anything could of been done to stop that tragic event. They didnt curse the airplanes or helicopters or fire trucks. They just handled it differently.

So a foreigner would see both identical events and circumstances and see in the press one case "Greece slow action burns homes " and on the other hand they will see " unprevantable fires burn homes in malibu " or smthg.

Why ? because its the effect its people give to the media. Greeks here arent going to die or have nothng to eat. They are just so pissed off that what is happening now is like the worst nightmare coming true. Fact of the matter is the hardest part for us is to adjust to the simple reality that we havnt been doing a God damn thing over so many years to actually bring a sustainalbe income to its citizens. For this I fault the politicians not the people.

[Voltron]

Greece cozying up to its old Turkish rival



I think we could have achieved a similar effect with Aegean Macedonians and the Republic of Macedonia if only the Macedonian government invested more funds in Bitola and Gevgelija, instead of spending only on Skopje and Tetovo which has attracted many Albanians to those cities.

This is the only positive thing I can see from all this. An opportunity to replenish the 3000 + Greeks in Turkey. Good news.