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Old 04-06-2020, 11:00 AM   #161
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https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/74959070.cms




Just firming up the mortgages right now. Wait for the squeezing of national testicles all around the world soon.
Irrationality seems to be far more contagious than covid19...global stock markets have rallied today (April 6) on no more than a couple of days of positive covid19 death rate data in places like NY, Spain and Italy.

WTF do those cunts smoke...every corner of the globe is locked down, unemployment has spiked across the world like never seen since the GFC and with a realistic possibility that a vaccine won't be found anytime this side of 2021, if ever...

How the fuck do the markets find positives in this shit-storm to be trading as much as 5+% higher...
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Old 04-06-2020, 03:10 PM   #162
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On one hand, people still have to live so some industries are doing very fine servicing them in this crazy time. Hence logic suggests they shouldn't have been hit so hard in the first place. On the other hand, the human condition is not unlike a yappy Chihuahua dog chasing its own tail. Stupidity and herd mentality comes to mind. All of this is mostly illogical.

I am astounded people are accepting the nature of the financial subsidies being handed out here in Australia. We will be broken for at least a generation.
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Old 04-06-2020, 07:47 PM   #163
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the human condition is not unlike a yappy Chihuahua dog chasing its own tail.
That perfectly explains the average investor. Buying in times of panic and selling three days later when everyone calms the fuck down has become the only way to invest in the stock market. Reverse for gold.

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I am astounded people are accepting the nature of the financial subsidies being handed out here in Australia. We will be broken for at least a generation.
Political correctness. Its become a virtue not to question the prevailing thinking, no matter what that happens to be, especially in a crisis. "Now is not the time". We, of all people, understand this. E.g. "Now is not the time to end name negotiations".
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Old 04-06-2020, 07:57 PM   #164
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Originally Posted by Risto the Great View Post
On one hand, people still have to live so some industries are doing very fine servicing them in this crazy time. Hence logic suggests they shouldn't have been hit so hard in the first place. On the other hand, the human condition is not unlike a yappy Chihuahua dog chasing its own tail. Stupidity and herd mentality comes to mind. All of this is mostly illogical.

I am astounded people are accepting the nature of the financial subsidies being handed out here in Australia. We will be broken for at least a generation.
People always love a good hand out...they just never seem to realize that they will be paying for it one way or another at some point.
I just wonder if we’ve hit bottom in the market...it just seems implausible that it would have happened so quickly and with relatively minor volatility...it just looks too clean and clinical at the moment when you consider the real economic impact of the virus is still only in the earliest of stages.

I wonder how the markets will respond when there’s more real economic evidence in the form of business contraction and company/personal bankruptcies at EOFY which should coincide nicely with the first peak of deaths across the globe or the very real likelihood that there will be waves of this pandemic breaking out in a cyclical fashion for some time to come...still way too many unknowns for so much confidence in recent market prices.
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Old 04-06-2020, 08:40 PM   #165
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It's interesting. I am pouring some concrete around my house at the moment. The truck driver said deliveries are about 70% down and manufacturing plants are closing due to the reduced demand. If the construction industry is being hit that hard, this alone will cascade for a year at least.

I can't see how real confidence return until real countries have been fully tested and come out on the other side. China is not a good example and not to be trusted.
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Old 04-06-2020, 11:08 PM   #166
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It's interesting. I am pouring some concrete around my house at the moment. The truck driver said deliveries are about 70% down and manufacturing plants are closing due to the reduced demand. If the construction industry is being hit that hard, this alone will cascade for a year at least.

I can't see how real confidence return until real countries have been fully tested and come out on the other side. China is not a good example and not to be trusted.
The construction industry in Australia has been in overdrive for the last 20 years, particularly residential development, there appeared to be an insatiable demand for new residential dwellings, driven by record low interest rates, low unemployment, lax negative gearing regulations and up until recently reckless lending policies amongst the banks...then you throw in the fact that most people under the age of 45 being fucking clueless about the perils of economic hardship.

Here in Australia we didn't learn any lessons from the GFC, we continued to accumulate household debt like it was only a problem for other countries around the world to deal with and that we were somehow immune from economic meltdown because we were different, perhaps 20 something years without even so much as experiencing a technical recession added to our smugness but it might finally be time to cough up (pun intended).

If governments around the world don't come up with some creative solutions that will get people back to work and spending money or are prepared to take on a far bolder risk and reward strategy in overcoming the spread of the virus (such as diving into herd immunity) then the global economy will be totally ruined...and in Australia all of those millionaire 'tradies' in the building game will be the first to be wiped out...
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Old 04-07-2020, 08:52 PM   #167
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Here is why the economy is screwed no matter what.

A simple example:

People are sitting home not working not collecting a paycheck. They can't pay rent, so they pass a law that for 3 months there is a grace period and you cant evict anyone. Three months go by now they have to pay 4 months of rent at once. A lot of people hardly pay the rent month to month when they have a job. There is no way they are paying 4 months at once. Now the landlords have a choice, eat 3 months of rent or evict all their tenants. In large apartments complexes that are leveraged the building owners may no be able to make mortgage payments. Now the bank has a choice, eat 3 months of payments are foreclose. Now the bank is going to go to the government and say they are at risk of collapse because of too many defaults.

In heavily leveraged western economies everything is connected, everything is a circle. You cant just turn the switch off and then turn it back on and start from where you left off as if nothing happened. Someone somewhere in the circle has to eat these months where business activity is at a standstill.

If the government tries to foot the entire bill then they will just run up huge deficits that will require either large cuts to budgets or will need to raise a lot more revenue.

Some industries will be alright but as a whole I cant come up with a logical scenario where there wont be a lot of economic pain.
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:16 PM   #168
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Gocka, you are talking about USA. The land of the free.
The socialist republic of Australia is different, landlords are being told they cannot evict anyone for 6 months. It is expected they will reduce commercial rents proportionally to accommodate the reduction in business activity of the tenants. (Because every accountant knows this will be a simple black and white calculation ..................).

(Interestingly, a fruit and veg retailer client of mine has said his turnover has doubled during this time. But his cost of goods has quadrupled. He misses out on any government handouts at this stage as a consequence of his turnover)


Meanwhile the banks will benevolently defer the interest (bless them). So the landlords get nothing in many cases, and the tenants pay nothing (but receive substantial subsidy from the government) ... yet the banks DEFER the interest and add interest on top of the interest.

I want to come back as a bank in my next life.

There will be generational pain.
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:23 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by Gocka View Post
Here is why the economy is screwed no matter what.

A simple example:

People are sitting home not working not collecting a paycheck. They can't pay rent, so they pass a law that for 3 months there is a grace period and you cant evict anyone. Three months go by now they have to pay 4 months of rent at once. A lot of people hardly pay the rent month to month when they have a job. There is no way they are paying 4 months at once. Now the landlords have a choice, eat 3 months of rent or evict all their tenants. In large apartments complexes that are leveraged the building owners may no be able to make mortgage payments. Now the bank has a choice, eat 3 months of payments are foreclose. Now the bank is going to go to the government and say they are at risk of collapse because of too many defaults.

In heavily leveraged western economies everything is connected, everything is a circle. You cant just turn the switch off and then turn it back on and start from where you left off as if nothing happened. Someone somewhere in the circle has to eat these months where business activity is at a standstill.

If the government tries to foot the entire bill then they will just run up huge deficits that will require either large cuts to budgets or will need to raise a lot more revenue.

Some industries will be alright but as a whole I cant come up with a logical scenario where there wont be a lot of economic pain.
There are so many questions yet to be answered, the full extent of the problem is unknown, it is literally a day-by-day prospect at the moment.
The economy can't function on a day-by-day basis, it requires a fair degree of certainty and forward planning...
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Old 04-09-2020, 04:19 PM   #170
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Wuhan is returning to life. So are its disputed wet markets

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...et-markets/amp
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