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Old 04-22-2011, 03:06 PM   #1
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Default Can Macedonia Benefit or Grow Economically From EU Membership?

This topic has been lifted from the prior topic of "Macedonians against NATO membership if we have to change the name".

The tile subject is certainly interesting and important to native Macedonians and Macedonian politicians - Although, diaspora Macedonians would also welcome a discussion on the title of this subject.


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Pelister said:

Quote:
No one has been able to show that E.U membership will benefit Macedonia 'economically' or how

No one has been able to show that E.U membership will NOT benefit Macedonia economically. I have read several claims on this but nobody has shown with facts that Macedonia will not benefit economically - Some people attempt to use Ireland, Greece, Spain or Bulgaria as evidence, although these countries in-particular Greece, have suffered on their own merits with fiscal and structural mismanagement. Ireland suffered from a classic boom and bust cycle after a super long growth expansion of 10 years. That all ended when the global financial crisis developed late 2007 which also affected most EU countries, including Spain and Bulgaria.

While Rome was not built overnight, empirical research evidence on new members in 2004 (Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Slovenia) have shown that access to EU markets (thru EU agreements) have resulted in substantial growth in trade. Although data is limited, economic integration between the older member states (EU15) and the new member states has been developing progressively. The new states quickly became EU’s second trade partner after the US, accounting for 12.3% of EU’s total external trade. At the same time, EU is the most important partner for the new member states (including Bulgaria and Romania).

Moreover, membership brings further trade liberalization regarding sensitive sectors (agriculture, steel, services) and non-tariff barriers as well as a possible reduction of transport costs.

Furthermore, empirical research point to foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows as key driver for economic growth for these new members in the second half of the 1990s. Most of these inflows came from EU15, such as Holland, Germany, France, Austria etc. - Foreign investors regarded these countries as up-and-coming new EU states with structural improvements such as low cost production, skilled workforce, and EU adapted standards.

In addition, Macedonia will probably receive financial funds from EU on regional development, the so-called ERDF, ESF and Cohesion funding. These funds are provided for countries like Macedonia and are used to develop economic structures, creating jobs, research and innovation, and infrastructure investments. These funds are much needed and would support Macedonian development. I’d say that Macedonia will benefit economically on just the EU funding. Most developing countries need outside capital to support their initial phases and Macedonia is no exception.

A country of such small size as Macedonia would most likely benefit from the huge EU markets. As long as they run the country in proper order, the upside potential outweighs the downside risk.

Something to ponder, an overwhelming majority of ALL central, northern and eastern European counties have joined EU. While Turkey is not a full member of EU, just yet, even THEY wish to join. Although, they benefit from the special customs union with EU which enhances their exports and FDI.



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Pelister said:
Quote:
In fact prices of all things will rise. It’s going to make life harder for the average Macedonian family
Based on what empirical evidence will prices of all “things” rise if they join EU?


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Old 04-23-2011, 12:00 AM   #2
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CT, I think your last question is kind of obvious, just look at Greece and Bulgaria how they can barely afford the price rises and they come to Macedonia to do their shopping. Hell the Greeks even fill up their cars with Petrol in Medzitlija.

I think you need to watch Milenko Nedelkovski on Janko Jadi Burek's show and he goes into detail about the benefits of being in the EU. We are the only country in Europe that is being blackmailed in order to gain EU entry, there is not a single precedent so you should understand why the majority of us are against this.
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Old 04-23-2011, 01:14 AM   #3
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Macedonia has almost EVERY benefit any member state has without the required costs that come along with the dictatorship/pyramid. What exactly are people looking for because the EU or NATO will NOT be helping with wages, housing, healthcare etc. UNLESS you pay a very heavy price.

Better off playing the Lotto, way better chances!

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Old 04-23-2011, 01:28 AM   #4
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Prolet, by putting quotation marks around "things", CT can suggest that not all "things" will increase in price. It is a marvelous tool for self-delusion. Everyone has seen the impact on prices in the countries in our region who have joined the EU.

Romania has the highest inflation in the entire EU right now. Bulgaria is 3rd highest.
But they are living the dream according to CT and he is willing to bet the Macedonian identity on it.

A couple of better questions:
Can Macedonia Grow Economically without EU Membership?

And another:
Are Macedonians willing to sacrifice their identity in order to test the notion that EU membership will benefit them?


Here is something I was reading whilst in China in relation to their new foreign aid policy:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion...t_12374296.htm

Money clearly exists out there WITHOUT a requirement to prostitute our identity it would seem. But CT seems to like it EU style.
Quote:
Basic features of China's foreign aid policy are as follows:

Unremittingly helping recipient countries build up their self-development capacity. Practice has proved that a country's development depends mainly on its own strength. In providing foreign aid, China does its best to help recipient countries to foster local personnel and technical forces, build infrastructure, and develop and use domestic resources, so as to lay a foundation for future development and embarkation on the road of self-reliance and independent development.

Imposing no political conditions. China upholds the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, respects recipient countries' right to independently select their own path and model of development, and believes that every country should explore a development path suitable to its actual conditions. China never uses foreign aid as a means to interfere in recipient countries' internal affairs or seek political privileges for itself.

Adhering to equality, mutual benefit and common development. China maintains that foreign aid is mutual help between developing countries, focuses on practical effects, accommodates recipient countries' interests, and strives to promote friendly bilateral relations and mutual benefit through economic and technical cooperation with other developing countries.

Remaining realistic while striving for the best. China provides foreign aid within the reach of its abilities in accordance with its national conditions. Giving full play to its comparative advantages, China does its utmost to tailor its aid to the actual needs of recipient countries.

Keeping pace with the times and paying attention to reform and innovation. China adapts its foreign aid to the development of both domestic and international situations, pays attention to summarizing experiences, makes innovations in the field of foreign aid, and promptly adjusts and reforms the management mechanism, so as to constantly improve its foreign aid work.
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Old 04-23-2011, 01:55 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prolet View Post
CT, I think your last question is kind of obvious, just look at Greece and Bulgaria how they can barely afford the price rises and they come to Macedonia to do their shopping. Hell the Greeks even fill up their cars with Petrol in Medzitlija.
.

It's not so obvious - I'll respond to your answer, but will wait until the answer comes from the person who made the claim.






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Old 04-23-2011, 02:10 AM   #6
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RtG

Before I answer your statements, which you seem to refer my name to it, I think you have a whole host of unanswered questions from your previous claims.


Here are the unanswered questions:

1. How much is the EU debt for Macedonia?

2. What kind of debt are you referring to?

3. For what specific reasons will the foreign debt triple?

4. How did you arrive to a ”tripling” of debt - Do you have an economic model?

5. Every country has some form of debt on their national balance sheets, so WHY should Macedonia not have any debt, even if the debt is in EUR?

6. Anybody can post a chart, but what do you actually UNDERSTAND from the Bulgarian chart that you like?

7. What specifically has EU created for Bulgaria that you call "pretty picture of the magic"?

8. Which labour laws would make Macedonia less competitive if they were to join EU?

9. Which EU regulations would make Macedonia less flexible that you are referring to?


Added question:

10. In what way has the economic potentials (regarding EU) been vague as communicated by Macedonian government officials?




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Old 04-23-2011, 03:11 AM   #7
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What possible trade can macedonia have with the eu.I think macedonia is more hoping to get handouts.Is there such a thing as handouts with no strings attached.If macedonia has any wealth such as resources they may be up for exploitation.
If macedonia becomes a member state of the eu then macedonia will get some of the debt the eu has by sharing it around.
Various members from the mto have shown that other members like greece etc come to macedonia because the prices back home are so high that they even buy their petrol in macedonia.CT also you forget the impact of high unemployment in the eu greece has nearly 18% & rising,Bulgaria is high & so are the rest of the eu.THe other thing is the currency of the eu is falling that is the value is falling it's worth less & less like it used to.Eventually CT that will be the end of the EU it will sink into oblivion as it was prophseised in the bible CT.I forgot to ask ct do you read the prophecy where the eu is the resurrected holy roman empire.(It won't last long).THe fact that macedonia want's to join or not join does not make a scintilla of difference to the union.BUt it does make a difference to the macedonian nation & that is our name.

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Old 04-23-2011, 03:35 AM   #8
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I forgot to mention CT i don't have the figures infront of me but the comparison of the various deficits of member states of the eu compared to their gdp is very shockingYou shoulg go & check them if you havent.
Also there are reports that some eu members are doing much better than the other members because they are closer to china.The twelve new member states of Central and Eastern Europe have enjoyed a higher average percentage growth rate than their Western European counterparts. Notably the Baltic states have achieved massive GDP growth, with Latvia topping 11%, close to China, the world leader at 9% on average for the past 25 years (though these gains have been in great part cancelled by the late-2000's recession). Reasons for this massive growth include government commitments to stable monetary policy, export-oriented trade policies, low flat-tax rates and the utilisation of relatively cheap labour. For the last year (2009), Poland had the biggest GDP growth from all the states in EU (1,7%). The current map of EU growth is one of huge regional variation, with the larger economies suffering from stagnant growth and the new nations enjoying sustained, robust economic growth. Although EU27 GDP is on the increase, the percentage of Gross world product is decreasing due to the emergence of economic powers such as China, India and Brazil. In the medium to long term, the EU will be looking to increase GDP growth in Italy and the UK and stabilise growth in the new Central and Eastern European states to ensure sustained economic prosperity.
So a lot of so called economic prosperity is short lived & cannot be fully attributed just because one is a member of the eu.
Also you'll notice allready the larger members like germany have moved the manufacturing bases to south america where labour is cheap & also the chinese are also biting into their manufacturing because of lower prices.The Eu cannot possibly compete for long with countries like china.
The only thing to export would be material resources because they just can't compete with china.

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Old 04-23-2011, 08:04 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Currency Trader View Post
This topic has been lifted from the prior topic of "Macedonians against NATO membership if we have to change the name".

The tile subject is certainly interesting and important to native Macedonians and Macedonian politicians - Although, diaspora Macedonians would also welcome a discussion on the title of this subject.

***************
No one has been able to show that E.U membership will NOT benefit Macedonia economically.
In fact it has been repeated time and again but numerous characters land on MTO and then, without bothering to read through the forum posts and topics, keep repeating the same (or similar) line on both NATO and EU membership, i.e. pro membership at the cost of further (and most likely fatal) national deconstruction of the Macedonian entity and identity. Sometimes it appears like it is an organised plot to push some political deconstruction agenda of the VASSALS in Skopje and their IC (US/NATO/EU) puppet masters.

Below is a repost of what I am sure you would have read by now and that, IMO, covers your question, among others, rather well:

Quote:
Relevant topical excerpt:
Myth number 3: EU Accession is Macedonia’s ticket to instant and sustained prosperity

The EU is in the throes of a life-threatening crisis and the entire enlargement project is in ever-growing doubt. Even if the EU were to emerge unscathed from this predicament, its harried officials still regard the Western Balkans as a cesspit, an Ottoman-Byzantine-Oriental Muslim-infested relic in the heart of an otherwise civilized, genteel, and Christian Europe (read: West). The more bigoted of the EU members are going to drag the negotiations with the likes of Macedonia as they have been doing with Turkey for decades now.

Macedonia currently enjoys all the benefits of EU membership without incurring any of its costs: it has free trade, visa-free travel, and access to regional development funds and EU tenders. The costs of accession are bound to be crippling: Macedonia’s sheltered and inefficient industries will crumble in the face of European competition; its judiciary and legislature will be buried under the 84,000 pages of the acquis communautaire; environmental, sanitation, and labour rules will render the private sector, such as it is in this benighted place, all but dysfunctional and insolvent; brain drain will likely reach epic proportions. Macedonia is not ready for EU accession. For the time being, it is better off as it is
.
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Originally Posted by Risto the Great View Post
Truthfully GS, I think your heart says no to FYROM but your brain accepts it.
I am not going to point the finger at you for this. You are like one million other Macedonians on the matter I suspect.

Vangelovski makes a point regarding NATO and the onus of justifying membership resting with pro FYROM membership Macedonians. EU membership is the same argument and I have spent some time de-constructing the merits of EU membership.

If you are going to play Greece in a game of devil's advocate, my question is as follows:

Will war begin if Macedonia, as a sovereign nation, insists on maintaining its identity and calling itself Macedonian? What will the worst consequences be if Macedonia says it wants to be called Macedonia from now on?
The following blog article by Sam Vaknin might be worth taking into account:

Greek-Macedonian Name Issue Myths Debunked
blog:10811:0::0

Posted Feb 19, 2011 by ■ Sam Vaknin in World

In the absence of the glare of the global media, its coverage and exposure, the fourth-rate diplomats that stand in for the International Community in Macedonia ineffectually cajole its government with thinly veiled threats, Cassandra-like apocalyptic scenarios, and verbal bribery. To achieve their aims, they propagate three myths (not to say deceptions):


Myth number 1: The conflict initiated by Greece is “normal” and not intractable

The truth is that the “Name Issue” cannot be resolved because the diametrically-opposing positions of the parties occupy the same semantic and geopolitical space. Both fear for their cohesion and identity should they compromise.

The Greek demand - that Macedonia and, consequently, the Macedonians change their collective (national) name - is unreasonable ab initio. Unreasonable demands cannot be rendered reasonable by being modified or amended. Greek “flexibility” and “reasonableness” are, therefore, smokescreens behind which lurk irrationality and extremism.
Sovereign polities should never succumb to blackmail and extortion: not because of ethical or moral considerations or matters of national pride, but because concessions only tend to enhance the insatiability of blackmailers and extortionists. Macedonia gave in to Greek blackmail once (with regards to its flag), yet this did not slake Greece’s thirst for more.

The name issue negotiations consume vast and scarce resources, especially in terms of human capital. Macedonia is a poor country and this Greek diversion is proving to be lethal as far as its economic development and geopolitical prospects go.

In truth, Macedonia is winning the diplomatic and public opinion battle the world over. More than 120 members of the United Nations recognize it by its constitutional name and not a week passes by without a commiserating op-ed in some prime medium in the West. Greece looks bad: an extortionate bully in the throes of economic mayhem and domestic terrorism. Faced with such an asymmetry in global sympathy, why should Macedonia be the one to throw in the towel?


Myth number 2: A lack of progress (read: Macedonian capitulation) on the name issue will foster inter-ethnic unrest and worse

Ardent, well-choreographed protestations aside, the Albanians in Macedonia ought to be delighted with the lack of progress on both NATO and EU accession. The overwhelming majority of Albanians in Western Macedonia are enmeshed in activities which can only be charitably described as “informal”. The Albanians are the engine that runs the grey and black and criminal economies in Macedonia. EU accession will put an abrupt stop to all these lucrative endeavours and unravel networks that took decades to build and maintain.


Furthermore, the Albanian insurgency in 2001 was the outcome of copious nods and winks (and dollops of materiel) on the part of the United States and, to a lesser extent, the EU. No such support, implicit or explicit, is to be found today: the International Community is firmly and irrevocably committed to the Ohrid Framework Agreement and will not allow the Albanians to use weapons to try to alter its generous terms.

Albanian posturing concerning the Macedonian procrastination with regards to the Name Issue has to do with internecine strife between the two big Albanian parties: DUI and DPA. They both leverage the name issue and threaten civil war in order to re-divide the spoils of government on all levels.


Myth number 3: EU Accession is Macedonia’s ticket to instant and sustained prosperity

The EU is in the throes of a life-threatening crisis and the entire enlargement project is in ever-growing doubt. Even if the EU were to emerge unscathed from this predicament, its harried officials still regard the Western Balkans as a cesspit, an Ottoman-Byzantine-Oriental Muslim-infested relic in the heart of an otherwise civilized, genteel, and Christian Europe (read: West). The more bigoted of the EU members are going to drag the negotiations with the likes of Macedonia as they have been doing with Turkey for decades now.

Macedonia currently enjoys all the benefits of EU membership without incurring any of its costs: it has free trade, visa-free travel, and access to regional development funds and EU tenders. The costs of accession are bound to be crippling: Macedonia’s sheltered and inefficient industries will crumble in the face of European competition; its judiciary and legislature will be buried under the 84,000 pages of the acquis communautaire; environmental, sanitation, and labour rules will render the private sector, such as it is in this benighted place, all but dysfunctional and insolvent; brain drain will likely reach epic proportions. Macedonia is not ready for EU accession. For the time being, it is better off as it is.

[....]

http://www.digitaljournal.com/blog/10811#ixzz1FWPgi8Gp

For fair use only.

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RTG, I think you should look into changing the topic title to something more a appropriate, e.g. "How Macedonian shoots itself in the foot/head by going to the ICJ"!
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Old 04-23-2011, 02:37 PM   #10
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CT, please watch this another 100 times until it begins to make sense ..

YouTube - 'Who the Hell You Think You Are?' Nigel Farage throws egg in Eurocrat faces

YouTube - PBS- Obama Puppetmaster George Soros calls for Carbon Taxes and New World Order
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