Just lost 6% today on the sharemarket

[Venom]

osiris, just read those two articles and fucking hell. Seems like we're all for a heck of a ride economically since most of us come from the countries that these authors think will go bust.

Imagine if everyone starts moving back to Macedonia. =)

[osiris]

brother venom, i am no economist so i cannot offer a "educated" opinion, but it seems to me , its the educated ones who are often the last to smell the winds of change. in australia they keep telling us we are ok and insulated from the worst aspects of the current crisis, if that is the case, why is our dollar at its lwest for a long time and our stock market in free fall.
look at it this way, the anglo saxon business communities have always worked with some form of advantage be it colonies for england or virgin lands with untold agriclutural and resource wealth like the usa and australia. now we are in a global ecnomy and the playing filled has levelled out a bit, and the english speaking countries have to pull their finger out, but it seems like their fingerslike their egos areto big to pull out.

australia doesnt have any public debt but its personal debt is huge, a result of the costello howard economic managemnet years, when public debt was efectively transferred to private as a result of it ts high tax policies and cutting of public services. have a read of the age econmic journalist kenneth davidson whose articles were scoffed at a few months ago as unrealistic and arlamist yet now suddenly he is being listened to as voice of wisdom.

venom i am freaked out enough to want to sell my house and cash up. i think in a few years our resource based companies will be up and running strongly again, but the rest of our economy will be flat and real estate will have plunged to a more realistc level.

compare this, in the usa a medain house prize is 3.5 times in oz its 7.5 times the medin annual wage, another result of costeelos finacial wizardry. when i was a kid it was 2.5 imes in australia.

[Risto the Great]

I think Australia has got a fair bit of interest rates to play with to play with the economy.
Westpac today is offering a fixed rate at 6.99%.
I would not fix anything right now.

We are in for a bumpy ride, no doubt .... but Australia is much more solid than many other countries. The lending policies in place here will ensure nothing gets out of hand. Don't forget we still need more houses for our growing population.

I still reckon I got my Argo shares at bottom dollar. They are up 3% today and seem to be a good indicator of the current state of play ... we will see!

Having said all that, I may invest heavily in a "maznik" later today ... guaranteed results!

[osiris]

i hope you are right risto i live in oz too .there is also the theory that this world wide bailout of corrupt capitalists will increase inflation and push down high commodity prizes which were the main factor in our economic well being.

[Risto the Great]

Commodities are already down mate.
Steel is already reduced dramatically.
Inflation will be the issue, how they will curb that with all the fake government money around is beyond me.

I can't stand the fact that Governments are intervening to bail out the banks. It smacks of further conspiracy theories to me.

[osiris]

i am with you man, who will really benefit from the bailout.

[osiris]

check this out courtesy of true macedonian

https://www.zeitgeistmovie.com

click the eye

[fatso]

Get out NOW.

The one word we will be hearing from now on is CAPITULATION.

[Risto the Great]

Is this as bad as 1987?
• The magnitude of the declines is similar but the 1987 experience is still worse than the current period. The drop from peak to trough in late 1987/early 1988 was far quicker as well.
• The Australian sharemarket peaked at 2376.88 on September 21 1987 and fell 49.2 per cent to its low point of 1207.51 on 10 February 1988 – a span of 103 days.
• In the current cycle, the All Ordinaries peaked at 6853.6 on November 1 2007 and has fallen 42.5 per cent to 3939.5 on October 10 2008 – a period of 243 trading days.

How long did recovery take back in 1987?
• The sharemarket hit its lows in February 1988. Four months later the sharemarket had lifted by 36 per cent. A year after the lows, the market had lost some of those gains but was still up 29 per cent on the low point.
However full recovery to the previous high took some time. In fact it took just over six years to get close to the previous highs but nine years to decisively push through the previous high. But the period did include a significant recession in 1991 and a slow economic recovery.
• In 1987 the sharemarket was significantly overvalued. In fact the priceearnings ratio hit 21.1, 79 per cent above the previous long-term average of 12.
• In the current cycle the PE ratio stood at 14.25 in November 2007 – below the previous decade average of 16.9 and the 28-year average of 15.2. The current PE ratio stands at 10.

Who the hell knows!

[Risto the Great]

So how are we faring?
I spent quite big over a month ago and it has paid off well (so far).

[Orovnichanec]

I bought Ford Stock here in the US back in late 2008, currently it is up 38% since I bought it

[Risto the Great]

I bought Ford Stock here in the US back in late 2008, currently it is up 38% since I bought it

Nice, that is when I was in the USA and Ford was offering 2 cars for the price of 1! Excellent timing.

[Pelister]

I think "TNE" is a good buy. Good Aussie soft ware company based in Brisbane.

If I had the money, I'd buy some.