Russia, Ukraine and the West

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  • Phoenix
    Senior Member
    • Dec 2008
    • 4671

    Originally posted by Risto the Great View Post
    A Ukrainian client offered his perspective as follows (edited to remove name):

    "...We are hoping that with the world's help Ukraine will prevail. It is heartbreaking to see how many lives lost, all this rape, murder, violence and looting against civilians. There is special place for putin and his cronies in hell".
    Not sure what Ukrainian's are thinking if they believe that the "world" is going to help them...I think the Ukrainians have been swept up by the MSM's unique worldview regarding this conflict...I'm thinking if you remove the western narrative that portrays the Russian people as the most evil race on the planet and all of their leaders as being worse than Hitler, you'd probably be left with 70% of the actual world who view this conflict from a very different lens to the one that western commentators i.e. politicians and pundits of every ilk are using.

    Firstly, regarding anything to do with 'international law'...there's no such thing as international law and it's literally not worth the paper it's written on...the global order of things is more closely connected to the law of the jungle and is defined by the slogan - MIGHT IS RIGHT.

    So, if you're a country that has endemic corruption, is an economic basket case and is governed by nazi sympathisers who have murdered 14,000 ethnic Russians since 2014, you probably should stop poking the bear in the eye with a sharp stick...because when the bear runs out of patience he's going to rip your fucking head off.

    If Ukrainians want peace and an end to the killing and all the civil unrest that wars unleash, perhaps they need to take a good hard look at themselves in the context of the global order and understand that their powerful neighbour holds all the cards...perhaps consider that neutrality is the only way forward.

    The more the Ukrainians hold out for the support of the "world" the greater price they will pay...the "world" doesn't give a fuck...the USA doesn't give a fuck about Ukraine...this is an attempt at regime change by the USA and the USA will fight Russia until the last Ukrainian...if that's the support from the world that this guy is waiting for, he's kidding himself.

    Comment

    • Liberator of Makedonija
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2014
      • 1595

      Phoenix, it is a bit of an exaggeration to claim that Ukraine is totally run by Neo Nazis. Under that logic we can claim a lot of European countries are run by them given they are prevelant throughout the continent, particularly in Russia. Also to my understanding the 14,000 figure refers to ALL casualties in the War in Donbass, not specifically Russian.
      Last edited by Liberator of Makedonija; 04-25-2022, 04:01 AM.
      I know of two tragic histories in the world- that of Ireland, and that of Macedonia. Both of them have been deprived and tormented.

      Comment

      • Risto the Great
        Senior Member
        • Sep 2008
        • 15658

        Originally posted by Phoenix View Post
        The more the Ukrainians hold out for the support of the "world" the greater price they will pay...the "world" doesn't give a fuck...the USA doesn't give a fuck about Ukraine...this is an attempt at regime change by the USA and the USA will fight Russia until the last Ukrainian...if that's the support from the world that this guy is waiting for, he's kidding himself.
        Ukraine is nothing more than a money laundering operation since the USA implemented their regime change there. Pakistan is the most recent victim of this kind of game (and is now bombing Afghanistan).

        I can't believe how anyone thinks Zelenskyy is sincere.
        Risto the Great
        MACEDONIA:ANHEDONIA
        "Holding my breath for the revolution."

        Hey, I wrote a bestseller. Check it out: www.ren-shen.com

        Comment

        • Risto the Great
          Senior Member
          • Sep 2008
          • 15658

          In cities like Kharkov, Mariupol and Odessa, the Ukrainian defense is provided by the paramilitary militias. They know that the objective of "denazification" is aimed primarily at them. For an attacker in an urbanized area, civilians are a problem. This is why Russia is seeking to create humanitarian corridors to empty cities of civilians and leave only the militias, to fight them more easily.

          Conversely, these militias seek to keep civilians in the cities from evacuating in order to dissuade the Russian army from fighting there. This is why they are reluctant to implement these corridors and do everything to ensure that Russian efforts are unsuccessful — they use the civilian population as "human shields." Videos showing civilians trying to leave Mariupol and beaten up by fighters of the Azov regiment are of course carefully censored by the Western media.
          I find it difficult to feel sorry for them when the likes of the Azov brigade are being hailed as heroes.
          Risto the Great
          MACEDONIA:ANHEDONIA
          "Holding my breath for the revolution."

          Hey, I wrote a bestseller. Check it out: www.ren-shen.com

          Comment

          • Phoenix
            Senior Member
            • Dec 2008
            • 4671

            Originally posted by Liberator of Makedonija View Post
            Phoenix, it is a big of an exaggeration to claim that Ukraine is totally run by Neo Nazis. Under that logic we can claim a lot of European countries are run by them given they are prevelant throughout the continent, particularly in Russia. Also to my understanding the 14,000 figure refers to ALL casualties in the War in Donbass, not specifically Russian.
            I think you're underestimating the influence of the neo-nazi element and the various far right groups within Ukraine today.

            They are entrenched within the military, national police and intelligence services...I think thats a fair claim to their power and influence in national decision making...

            Comment

            • Carlin
              Senior Member
              • Dec 2011
              • 3332

              Russian General Suggests Moscow Could Seize Ukraine’s Entire Coast, Create Link To Transnistria

              A Russian deputy military commander said Moscow could seize Ukraine’s Black Sea coast to create a corridor to a breakaway region of Moldova. On Friday, Rustam Minnekaev, acting commander of Russia's Central Military District, said, "control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transnistria, where there is also…


              A Russian deputy military commander said Moscow could seize Ukraine’s Black Sea coast to create a corridor to a breakaway region of Moldova.

              On Friday, Rustam Minnekaev, acting commander of Russia’s Central Military District, said, "control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transnistria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed." He added, "One of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine.”

              Nearly 500,000 people live in Transnistria, a narrow section of Moldova that borders Ukraine. While no countries recognize its sovereignty from Moldova, it has been self-ruled since 1992. Russia has about 1,500 peacekeepers in Transnistria.

              The Moldovan said the comments conflict with Russia’s stated policy. “These statements are unfounded and contradict the position of the Russian Federation supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, within its internationally recognized borders,” the Moldovan foreign ministry told the Washington Post.

              It is unclear if Minnekaev’s comments represent official Kremlin policy. On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin declared victory in the key city of Mariupol, giving Russia control of Ukraine’s Sea of Azov coast. Moscow recently announced a new phase of its military operations in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

              Seizing the Black Sea coastline would likely be a more ambitious task, requiring the capture of the port city of Odesa. Since beginning the "special military operation" on February 24, Russia has captured only a small portion of Ukraine’s southwest.

              Comment

              • Liberator of Makedonija
                Senior Member
                • Apr 2014
                • 1595

                Originally posted by Phoenix View Post
                I think you're underestimating the influence of the neo-nazi element and the various far right groups within Ukraine today.

                They are entrenched within the military, national police and intelligence services...I think thats a fair claim to their power and influence in national decision making...
                Perhaps I am on that front. It does seem Azov continues to have a prominent role in the military despite international objections to this. I am still unwilling to allude to Ukraine being a "neo-nazi" state however. Neo-Nazi elements are present in other European militaries (the British Army comes to mind personally).
                I know of two tragic histories in the world- that of Ireland, and that of Macedonia. Both of them have been deprived and tormented.

                Comment

                • Carlin
                  Senior Member
                  • Dec 2011
                  • 3332

                  Moldova: Explosions reported near Transnistria Ministry of Security in Tiraspol April 25



                  Several explosions were reported at the headquarters of the breakaway Transnistria Region's Ministry of Security in Tiraspol April 25. Preliminary information suggests the building may have been targeted in a grenade launcher attack. There have as yet been no reports of casualties.

                  Emergency crews are on the scene. Authorities have closed roads in the vicinity of the ministry. A heightened security presence could remain deployed in the area for several hours; localized ground transport disruptions are likely.

                  Comment

                  • Phoenix
                    Senior Member
                    • Dec 2008
                    • 4671

                    Originally posted by Liberator of Makedonija View Post
                    Perhaps I am on that front. It does seem Azov continues to have a prominent role in the military despite international objections to this. I am still unwilling to allude to Ukraine being a "neo-nazi" state however. Neo-Nazi elements are present in other European militaries (the British Army comes to mind personally).
                    I think the following article is a reasonably balanced look into the problem we are discussing:



                    Interestingly, this was written in 2018...I would argue that the issue has been exposed in far greater clarity since.

                    Comment

                    • Liberator of Makedonija
                      Senior Member
                      • Apr 2014
                      • 1595

                      Originally posted by Phoenix View Post
                      I think the following article is a reasonably balanced look into the problem we are discussing:



                      Interestingly, this was written in 2018...I would argue that the issue has been exposed in far greater clarity since.
                      That is a good article but note it does also highlight that there is little to no public support for these Neo-Nazis and that Russian claims of Ukraine being some kind of breeding ground for them is a gross exaggeration. This article does highlight the dangerous relationship between the Ukrainian government and military with these groups however.
                      I know of two tragic histories in the world- that of Ireland, and that of Macedonia. Both of them have been deprived and tormented.

                      Comment

                      • Phoenix
                        Senior Member
                        • Dec 2008
                        • 4671

                        Originally posted by Liberator of Makedonija View Post
                        That is a good article but note it does also highlight that there is little to no public support for these Neo-Nazis and that Russian claims of Ukraine being some kind of breeding ground for them is a gross exaggeration...
                        Neo-Nazi organisations don't exist in a vacuum, without wide support and ultimately protection from prosecution...they have support and influence, otherwise they could not possibly exist in any form...and the Ukrainians in the west of the country have a very chequered history with nazi ideology and crimes against humanity in the name of that diabolical ideology

                        Currently Zelenskyy is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, or more precisely between what the CIA wants him to do on one hand and what the neo-nazi's expect on the other...both are making it impossible for Zelenskyy to negotiate a peace deal with the Russians and to spare countless more Ukrainian lives and infrastructure.

                        He is destroying his nation, the map of Ukraine will never be what it was prior to this conflict going kinetic and those seeds were sown in 2014 when neo-nazi's were incinerating ethnic Russians in Odessa...or was that another gross exaggeration...?


                        Originally posted by Liberator of Makedonija View Post
                        ...This article does highlight the dangerous relationship between the Ukrainian government and military with these groups however.
                        So we've come full circle in this discussion...but it's not just the military, the neo-nazi element is now firmly entrenched within the national police and intelligence structures within Ukraine and by extension of that influence they have a firm grip on Zelenskyy's nuts...a dangerous relationship for sure.

                        Comment

                        • Liberator of Makedonija
                          Senior Member
                          • Apr 2014
                          • 1595

                          I do see your point but as I said earlier some of what you have stated can also be applied to other European nations. I would say the main difference in this case is just how engrained Azov is in the Ukrainian military and how much pull they have with the government because of it. Your statement on Neo-Nazis only existing with wide support is contray to the article you sent me which highlighted how little public support there is for Neo-Nazis in Ukraine. By your same logic, it can be reasoned that Neo-Nazis must have wide support everywhere in Europe given how they are present in pretty much every state, most numerically in Russia.
                          I know of two tragic histories in the world- that of Ireland, and that of Macedonia. Both of them have been deprived and tormented.

                          Comment

                          • kompir
                            Member
                            • Jan 2015
                            • 537

                            A Chinese perspective on the Ukraine shitshow:

                            ------------------------------------------------------

                            The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most severe geopolitical conflict since World War II and will result in far greater global consequences than September 11 attacks. At this critical moment, China needs to accurately analyze and assess the direction of the war and its potential impact on the international landscape. At the same time, in order to strive for a relatively favorable external environment, China needs to respond flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests.

                            Russia’s ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine has caused great controvsery in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure options.

                            I. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War

                            1. Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin’s attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia’s domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin’s best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.

                            2. The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia’s military power is no match for NATO’s, would be even worse for Putin.

                            3. Even if Russia manages to seize Ukraine in a desperate gamble, it is still a political hot potato. Russia would thereafter carry a heavy burden and become overwhelmed. Under such circumstances, no matter whether Volodymyr Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to confront Russia in the long term. Russia will be subject both to Western sanctions and rebellion within the territory of Ukraine. The battle lines will be drawn very long. The domestic economy will be unsustainable and will eventually be dragged down. This period will not exceed a few years.

                            4. The political situation in Russia may change or be disintegrated at the hands of the West. After Putin’s blitzkrieg failed, the hope of Russia’s victory is slim and Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented degree. As people’s livelihoods are severely affected and as anti-war and anti-Putin forces gather, the possibility of a political mutiny in Russia cannot be ruled out. With Russia’s economy on the verge of collapse, it would be difficult for Putin to prop up the perilous situation even without the loss of the Russo-Ukrainian war. If Putin were to be ousted from power due to civil strife, coup d’état, or another reason, Russia would be even less likely to confront the West. It would surely succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and Russia’s status as a great power would come to an end.

                            II. Analysis of the Impact of Russo-Ukrainian war On International Landscape

                            1. The United States would regain leadership in the Western world, and the West would become more united. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukrainian war signifies a complete collapse of U.S. hegemony, but the war would in fact bring France and Germany, both of which wanted to break away from the U.S., back into the NATO defense framework, destroying Europe’s dream to achieve independent diplomacy and self-defense. Germany would greatly increase its military budget; Switzerland, Sweden, and other countries would abandon their neutrality. With Nord Stream 2 put on hold indefinitely, Europe’s reliance on US natural gas will inevitably increase. The US and Europe would form a closer community of shared future, and American leadership in the Western world will rebound.

                            2. The “Iron Curtain” would fall again not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but also to the final confrontation between the Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw the line between democracies and authoritarian states, defining the divide with Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron Curtain will no longer be drawn between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor will it be confined to the Cold War. It will be a life-and-death battle between those for and against Western democracy. The unity of the Western world under the Iron Curtain will have a siphon effect on other countries: the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy will be consolidated, and other countries like Japan will stick even closer to the U.S., which will form an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front.

                            3. The power of the West will grow significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and U.S. influence in the non-Western world will increase. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world. The scene after the 1991 Soviet and Eastern upheavals may repeat itself: theories on “the end of ideology” may reappear, the resurgence of the third wave of democratization will lose momentum, and more third world countries will embrace the West. The West will possess more “hegemony” both in terms of military power and in terms of values and institutions, its hard power and soft power will reach new heights.

                            4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West. Once Putin falls, the U.S. will no longer face two strategic competitors but only have to lock China in strategic containment. Europe will further cut itself off from China; Japan will become the anti-China vanguard; South Korea will further fall to the U.S.; Taiwan will join the anti-China chorus, and the rest of the world will have to choose sides under herd mentality. China will not only be militarily encircled by the U.S., NATO, the QUAD, and AUKUS, but also be challenged by Western values and systems.

                            III. China’s Strategic Choice

                            1. China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible. In the sense that an escalation of conflict between Russia and the West helps divert U.S. attention from China, China should rejoice with and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fall. Being in the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power. Unless Putin can secure victory with China’s backing, a prospect which looks bleak at the moment, China does not have the clout to back Russia. The law of international politics says that there are “no eternal allies nor perpetual enemies,” but “our interests are eternal and perpetual.” Under current international circumstances, China can only proceed by safeguarding its own best interests, choosing the lesser of two evils, and unloading the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks before China loses its wiggle room. China must act decisively.

                            2. China should avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world. At present, China has tried not to offend either side and walked a middle ground in its international statements and choices, including abstaining from the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly votes. However, this position does not meet Russia’s needs, and it has infuriated Ukraine and its supporters as well as sympathizers, putting China on the wrong side of much of the world. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a sensible choice, but it does not apply to this war, where China has nothing to gain. Given that China has always advocated respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can avoid further isolation only by standing with the majority of the countries in the world. This position is also conducive to the settlement of the Taiwan issue.

                            3. China should achieve the greatest possible strategic breakthrough and not be further isolated by the West. Cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality will help build China’s international image and ease its relations with the U.S. and the West. Though difficult and requiring great wisdom, it is the best option for the future. The view that a geopolitical tussle in Europe triggered by the war in Ukraine will significantly delay the U.S. strategic shift from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region cannot be treated with excessive optimism. There are already voices in the U.S. that Europe is important, but China is more so, and the primary goal of the U.S. is to contain China from becoming the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances, China’s top priority is to make appropriate strategic adjustments accordingly, to change the hostile American attitudes towards China, and to save itself from isolation. The bottom line is to prevent the U.S. and the West from imposing joint sanctions on China.

                            4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. As Putin has explicitly requested Russia’s strategic deterrent forces to enter a state of special combat readiness, the Russo-Ukrainian war may spiral out of control. A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little. If Russia instigates a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world’s turmoil. To demonstrate China’s role as a responsible major power, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.

                            Доста бе Вегето една, во секоја манџа се мешаш

                            Comment

                            • Carlin
                              Senior Member
                              • Dec 2011
                              • 3332

                              Macedonia will host 2,500 British soldiers for the Swift Response 22 military exercise. The exercise will also include troops from...


                              Macedonia will host 2,500 British soldiers for the Swift Response 22 military exercise. The exercise will also include troops from half a dozen other NATO member states, and will last until the end of May.

                              Britain describes the exercise as another step to deter Russia from expanding west. The exercise will include air landings and will be the biggest of its kind in Macedonia.

                              Comment

                              • Carlin
                                Senior Member
                                • Dec 2011
                                • 3332

                                Russian Spetsnaz unit in Kherson captured 2 Russian-speaking British SAS operatives on April 21, after a leak of their position from Kiev.

                                They were conducting recon for London (these are not mercenaries).

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