Russia, Ukraine and the West

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  • Phoenix
    Senior Member
    • Dec 2008
    • 4671

    Originally posted by Vangelovski View Post
    Maybe the US failed in Vietnam and Afghanistan (and a host of other places) because they were invading a foreign country just like Russia has done in Ukraine. Maybe it's a lot easier to supply and finance resistance to invasion than actually successfully undertake one? Maybe its even easier to supply and finance resistance when you are the preeminent global superpower? Just a thought.
    If you look at this conflict from a more regional perspective, one could argue that the Russians of Eastern Ukraine are defending their homeland from Ukrainian aggression, the same as the argument you are making vis-a-vis Ukraine.

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    • Vangelovski
      Senior Member
      • Sep 2008
      • 8531

      Originally posted by Phoenix View Post
      If you look at this conflict from a more regional perspective, one could argue that the Russians of Eastern Ukraine are defending their homeland from Ukrainian aggression, the same as the argument you are making vis-a-vis Ukraine.
      You could. And while I do think the Ukrainians can and will force the Russian army out (as long as the west keeps supplying them), I don't know what they will do with Russian populated areas in Crimea and parts of the Donbas longer term.

      But they're not clear-cut Russian populated regions either. According to their last census (2001), Crimea was 58% Russian (the only majority oblast), Donetsk 38% and Luhansk 39%. While the Russians are a majority in most of Crimea, Russian majorities within the Donbas are concentrated in a small number of districts along the border. The Russians are clearly a minority across most of the region.

      Last edited by Vangelovski; 04-12-2023, 07:14 AM.
      If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and restore their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14

      The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments, of their duties and obligations...This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people was the real American Revolution. John Adams

      Comment

      • Karposh
        Member
        • Aug 2015
        • 863

        Originally posted by Vangelovski View Post
        Some of you keep acting like the Ukrainians are just confused Russians and that Russia didn't send its military across a national border and this isn't an invasion.
        That’s because many Ukrainians tend to act like confused Russians so you can’t blame the some of us who might think this. Actually, I'm just speaking for myself here and not for anyone else. Before last year's invasion, I wasn't entirely convinced that the Ukrainians had a particularly strong sense of Ukrainian identity. I now know that's not the case, at least for the western half of the country.

        The following is an article by a Ukrainian that was written back in 2015 (from a pro-Ukrainian point of view) that offers some interesting insights into some of the intricacies surrounding the Ukrainian national identity. I’ve only quoted the first half of the article which focuses on the issue of language versus identity in Ukraine. The second half mainly deals with Russian/American politics over the years. If anyone wants to read the rest of the article, here is the link:

        In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin seized Crimea, fomenting conflict in eastern Ukraine. In this Brookings Essay, Chrystia Freeland details Ukraine’s efforts to maintain its sovereignty.


        The crisis that burst into the news a year-and-a-half ago has often been explained as Putin's exploitation of divisions between the mainly Russian-speaking majority of Ukrainians in the eastern and southern regions of the country, and the mainly Ukrainian-speaking majority in the west and center. Russian is roughly as different from Ukrainian as Spanish is from Italian.

        While the linguistic factor is real, it is often oversimplified in several respects: Russian-speakers are by no means all pro-Putin or secessionist; Russian- and Ukrainian-speakers are geographically commingled; and virtually everyone in Ukraine has at least a passive understanding of both languages. To make matters more complicated, Russian is the first language of many ethnic Ukrainians, who are 78 percent of the population (but even that category is blurry, because many people in Ukraine have both Ukrainian and Russian roots). President Petro Poroshenko is an example — he always understood Ukrainian, but learned to speak it only in 1996, after being elected to Parliament; and Russian remains the domestic language of the Poroshenko family. The same is true in the home of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukraine's prime minister. The best literary account of the Maidan uprising to date was written in Russian: Ukraine Diaries, by Andrey Kurkov, the Russian-born, ethnic Russian novelist, who lives in Kyiv.

        In this last respect, my own family is, once again, quite typical. My maternal grandmother, born into a family of Orthodox clerics in central Ukraine, grew up speaking Russian and Ukrainian. Ukrainian was the main language of the family refuge she eventually found in Canada, but she and my grandfather spoke Ukrainian and Russian as well as Polish interchangeably and with equal fluency. When they told stories, it was natural for them to quote each character in his or her original language. I do the same thing today with Ukrainian and English, my mother having raised me to speak both languages, as I in turn have done with my three children.

        In short, being a Russian-speaker in Ukraine does not automatically imply a yearning for subordination to the Kremlin any more than speaking English in Ireland or Scotland means support for a political union with England. As Kurkov writes in his Diaries: “I am a Russian myself, after all, an ethnically Russian citizen of Ukraine. But I am not 'a Russian,' because I have nothing in common with Russia and its politics. I do not have Russian citizenship and I do not want it.”

        That said, it's true that people on both sides of the political divide have tried to declare their allegiances through the vehicle of language. Immediately after the overthrow and self-exile of Yanukovych, radical nationalists in Parliament passed a law making Ukrainian the sole national language — a self-destructive political gesture and a gratuitous insult to a large body of the population.

        However, the contentious language bill was never signed into law by the acting president. Many civic-minded citizens also resisted such polarizing moves. As though to make amends for Parliament's action, within 72 hours the people of Lviv, the capital of the Ukrainian-speaking west, held a Russian-speaking day, in which the whole city made a symbolic point of shifting to the country's other language.

        Less than two weeks after the language measure was enacted it was rescinded, though not before Putin had the chance to make considerable hay out of it.

        The blurring of linguistic and ethnic identities reflects the geographic and historic ties between Ukraine and Russia. But that affinity has also bred, among many in Russia, a deep-seated antipathy to the very idea of a truly independent and sovereign Ukrainian state.

        Russians see Ukraine as the cradle of their civilization. Even the name came from there: the vast empire of the czars evolved from Kyivan Rus, a loose federation of Slavic tribes in the Middle Ages.

        The ties that bind are also contemporary and personal. Two Soviet leaders — Nikita Khrushchev and Leonid Brezhnev — not only spent their early years in Ukraine but spoke Russian with a distinct Ukrainian accent. This historic connectedness is one reason why their post-Soviet successor, Vladimir Putin, has been able to build such wide popular support in Russia for championing — and, as he is now trying to do, recreating — “Novorossiya” (New Russia) in Ukraine…
        To this, I will also add my own personal first-hand experience in witnessing this apparent ambiguity some Ukrainians have when it comes to their identity. A few years back I worked with a guy who was from Ukraine but would often leave me scratching my head with regard to his self-identity. It seemed to change like the weather. One day he was Ukrainian, the next day he was Russian. Was he just a confused Russian? I have no idea, but you can’t blame me if the thought crossed my mind.

        Image 1 Map of Ukraine showing dominant language


        Image 2 Map of Ukraine showing Russian as native language.

        Comment

        • Phoenix
          Senior Member
          • Dec 2008
          • 4671

          Karposh,

          A Russian guy I once worked with and I’m talking about a period quite a few years ago before this conflict started referred to Ukrainians as “Russian spastics”…lol…I always thought that was a bit harsh…all Ukrainians that I have met have been nice people.

          Comment

          • Vangelovski
            Senior Member
            • Sep 2008
            • 8531

            Originally posted by Karposh View Post
            That’s because many Ukrainians tend to act like confused Russians so you can’t blame the some of us who might think this. Actually, I'm just speaking for myself here and not for anyone else. Before last year's invasion, I wasn't entirely convinced that the Ukrainians had a particularly strong sense of Ukrainian identity. I now know that's not the case, at least for the western half of the country.
            I agree that until 2014, the eastern half of Ukraine was a very mixed bag with fluid identities (that sounds a bit neo-Marxist). I think that's why the Russians thought they could stroll in last year. But 10 years of war changed that. I think identities have solidified since.

            Ethnicity and language don't necessarily determine national identity or loyalty. Some ethnic Ukrainians still consider themselves Russians (even Soviet), and many ethnic Ukrainians (about 5.5 million according to the 2001 census) speak Russian due to historical circumstances but have a clear Ukrainian national identity.

            Both my map and yours show different things (ethnicity vs language) based on 20 year old data. But the fact remains ethnic Russians are a majority in only a dozen districts (my map). Russian speakers (including ethnic Ukrainians) are a majority in many more districts (your maps). Whatever identity they had before, I think these Russian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians have developed a clear Ukranian national identity since 2014.

            Nevertheless, there are still many ethnic Russians with a Russian national identity across Donbas and Crimea. But most of them live in districts where ethnic Ukrainians are 60-80 per cent of the population.
            Last edited by Vangelovski; 04-14-2023, 09:11 AM.
            If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and restore their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14

            The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments, of their duties and obligations...This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people was the real American Revolution. John Adams

            Comment

            • Risto the Great
              Senior Member
              • Sep 2008
              • 15658

              Tucker revealing a few painful truths

              Risto the Great
              MACEDONIA:ANHEDONIA
              "Holding my breath for the revolution."

              Hey, I wrote a bestseller. Check it out: www.ren-shen.com

              Comment

              • Carlin
                Senior Member
                • Dec 2011
                • 3332

                US General Cavoli: Russia is actually winning the conflict in Ukraine

                Cavoli stated this in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee. He explained that the degradation of the Russian armed forces" was grossly misrepresented by the media.
                “Most of the Russian military has not been affected by this conflict,” Cavoli said.

                Comment

                • Carlin
                  Senior Member
                  • Dec 2011
                  • 3332

                  "The Battle for Bakhmut is almost at a close.

                  The AFU still holds roughly 1 sq. km of the city but the warriors of Wagner continue pushing.

                  At this point Ukraine's attacks on the flanks of the city don't really make a difference other than they'll be able to withdraw easier."





                  From Erik Zimerman:

                  "An additional note on the supply situation for UA held Bakhmut.

                  By tomorrow morning, there may no longer be much of a UA-held Bakhmut, but this is relevant to what has been the situation for the last 48 hours or so.

                  The UA counteroffensive was first to reported to have collapsed the Russian front. I argued otherwise. Then finally it was corrected to having re-opened the roads to Bakhmut. It did so partially. ..."

                  (thread)
                  Last edited by Carlin; 05-16-2023, 11:14 PM.

                  Comment

                  • Vangelovski
                    Senior Member
                    • Sep 2008
                    • 8531

                    Ukraine will be equipped with F16s.

                    President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he has arrived in Saudi Arabia where he is due to meet with the Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman, and address an Arab League summit, James Rothwell reports.
                    If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and restore their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14

                    The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments, of their duties and obligations...This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people was the real American Revolution. John Adams

                    Comment

                    • Carlin
                      Senior Member
                      • Dec 2011
                      • 3332

                      Rumors that the frontline is collapsing. Unconfirmed reports that Chromove has fallen as well.

                      Last edited by Carlin; 05-20-2023, 02:23 PM.

                      Comment

                      • Carlin
                        Senior Member
                        • Dec 2011
                        • 3332

                        Commander-in-Chief of the AFU Zaluzhny is in critical condition

                        Comment

                        • Carlin
                          Senior Member
                          • Dec 2011
                          • 3332

                          Will Schryver:

                          I've just listened to this interview with John Helmer, who is convinced NATO is planning an ambush attack against Russia as soon as June 12th, under the guise of long-planned NATO exercises in Germany, Poland, and Romania.

                          Helmer believes this "ambush attack" will incorporate a full complement of top-shelf US air assets, including F-22s and F-35s.

                          While I do not categorically dismiss the possibility of such an astounding move by the US and its NATO vassals, I consider it effectively impossible. It is, in my judgment, an unthinkable and assuredly catastrophic escalation to no-holds-barred World War 3.

                          So, I suppose we must all "wait and see", but I remain highly dubious that the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult has sufficiently seized the reins of American military power that it could bring to pass an act of such unmitigated madness.

                          Comment

                          • Carlin
                            Senior Member
                            • Dec 2011
                            • 3332

                            UK Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace has raised the alarm about an "imminent war with Russia and China", saying "Conflict is coming."

                            Comment

                            • Carlin
                              Senior Member
                              • Dec 2011
                              • 3332

                              EXCLUSIVE from a Nord Stream Sabotage whistleblower:

                              I am writing to you as a concerned citizen of the world, wishing for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. My identity is not of importance. What matters is the sharing of my story so that the world can understand the truth about the Nord Stream Sabotage, thereby moving forward without lies or inaccuracies. As many of you may know, a series of clandestine bombings and subsequent underwater gas leaks occurred on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines on September 26, 2022. While there has been much speculation about the nature of this sabotage, I aim to provide additional details and facts that will give a clearer picture. Before the attacks on September 11, 2001, I started working with contractors at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab in Maryland. We were working on the Advanced Seal Delivery System (ASDS), a covert mini-submarine designed for the Navy Seals to carry out stealthy clandestine missions. This submarine is transported on the back of nuclear submarines and detaches to execute its missions. I was chosen to work on this project, and my role was to assist in the programming of the full-sized, temperature-controlled simulator for the submarine on which the Navy Seals would train. The simulator featured screens that displayed a 3D simulation of the ASDS undocking from a nuclear submarine, executing its mission, and then returning to dock. I spent countless hours in the simulator, ensuring everything functioned as specified. I piloted the simulator on simulated missions, just like the Navy Seal pilots would before their actual missions. Even in 2001, we had the ability to program a variety of scenarios, including the sabotaging of pipelines. Although I did not pilot a simulated mission specifically for the Nord Stream pipelines, I did simulate scenarios of covertly sabotaging pipelines. I can confirm that the United States has had this capability for decades, and the ASDS is in the US inventory, fully capable of executing the Nord Stream Sabotage. Publicly available radar evidence from http://flightradar24.com helps shine light on how the Nordstream sabotage was conducted. As exposed by Seymour Hersh, the explosives were planted during the Baltops 22 maritime exercises. Although speculation remains as to the exact method of explosives placement, I believe that the modern Advanced Seal Delivery System (ASDS) was utilized with Navy divers. This mirrors the way I would have conducted the mission in the simulator.

                              Thread: 1 of 7

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