Russian official threatens military attacks against Finland, Sweden.
Dmitry Polyansky, a deputy representative of Russia at the United Nations, said that Sweden and Finland joining NATO would turn them into enemy countries.
Russia, Ukraine and the West
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Russian missile Sarmat (aka Satan-2) is capable of destroying an area size of Texas or England in a single strike
Finland to request NATO membership tomorrow, Sweden to follow (Carl Bildt)
(Virtual certainty that Russia will reinforce its ground forces and air defenses and deploy significant naval forces in the Gulf of Finland.)Last edited by Carlin; 05-11-2022, 06:19 PM.
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All civilians have been evacuated from the Azovstal plant in Mariupol and the forces of the "People's Militia of the Donetsk People's Republic" now have a "free hand," the head of the "Donetsk People's Republic" Denis Pushilin told Rossiya 1 TV channel on Wednesday.
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Originally posted by Solun View Post...Zelensky working hard on organising for his (and our) Azov Warriors to be airlifted out of the Steelworks to another country...
On one hand there's been relentless talk of numerous high risk evacuation attempts from the Ukrainian side and on the other hand there's an obvious reluctance from the Russians to obliterate the entire site.
If foreign (NATO) contractors/advisers are there and can be captured alive it will be a huge embarrassment for the West and it will be game over for Ukraine...no wonder Zelensky and his handlers are shitting themselves.
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Zelensky asking for Chancellor Olaf Scholz to visit Kiev on May 9
Zelensky working hard on organising for his (and our) Azov Warriors to be airlifted out of the Steelworks to another country
Maybe he should focus on organising this through Scholz for his (and our) Warriors be taken to Germany. I'm sure there are locations in Germany to which his (and our) Warriors would like to be taken. Oh the Irony
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Originally posted by kompir View Post...Zaporizhzhia: European Union countries will stop importing Russian oil and refined products, the head of the bloc’s executive European Commission said, as she proposed a sixth round of sanctions against Moscow for waging a war on Ukraine.
“We will phase out Russian supply of crude oil within six months and refined products by the end of the year,” Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament, prompting applause from politicians. “This will be a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline, crude and refined.”
“It will not be easy. Some member states are strongly dependent on Russian oil. But we simply have to work on it,” von der Leyen said of the proposal, which requires approval from all 27 EU countries to take effect...
Originally posted by kompir View Post...As well as oil, the sixth round of sanctions would also affect Sberbank, Russia’s top lender, diplomats told Reuters, adding it to several banks that have already been excluded from the SWIFT messaging system.
Originally posted by kompir View Post...Russian forces have turned their heaviest firepower on Ukraine’s east and south after failing to take Kyiv, the capital, in the opening weeks of the war.
The Russian - Plan A was apparently to move toward Kyiv in an effort to pressure the Zelenskyy government into negotiations without too much destruction and the loss of life on both sides.
This softly softly approach was costly to the Russians because Zelenskyy refused to negotiate forcing the Russians into the Plan B they are conducting at the moment.
Just a few points, the Russians don't have enough troops in Ukraine to occupy the country.
The Russians have no strategic reason to occupy/take Kyiv...it would be a total waste of resources and manpower to do so.
Once Plan B was initiated the Russian troops around Kyiv were used in a feint manoeuvre to force the Ukrainians into concentrating a large force around Kyiv to defend the capital...in other words a relatively small Russian force had skilfully managed to hold in place a numerically superior Ukrainian force, thereby restricting the Ukrainians the ability to control the movement of their own forces and to reinforce in other parts of Eastern Ukraine.
The Russians then called a ceasefire allowing their forces around Kyiv to move quickly toward the Donbas theatre and deny the far larger Ukrainian force around Kyiv to be used to reinforce Ukrainian troops who were quickly being surrounded in Donbas.
Some 60K Ukrainian troops are said to be in the Donbas region and they're slowly being choked and encircled by Russian forces. The Ukrainians in Donbas are struggling to be resupplied and reinforced. The large Ukrainian force that protected Kyiv would have to travel hundreds of kilometres across open country to reinforce their troops in Donbas and with the Russian airforce controlling the skies that would seem to be an impossible and futile task.
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The EU has lost the plot:
‘It will not be easy’: EU unveils plans to ban all Russian oil imports
Zaporizhzhia: European Union countries will stop importing Russian oil and refined products, the head of the bloc’s executive European Commission said, as she proposed a sixth round of sanctions against Moscow for waging a war on Ukraine.
“We will phase out Russian supply of crude oil within six months and refined products by the end of the year,” Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament, prompting applause from politicians. “This will be a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline, crude and refined.”
“It will not be easy. Some member states are strongly dependent on Russian oil. But we simply have to work on it,” von der Leyen said of the proposal, which requires approval from all 27 EU countries to take effect.
As well as oil, the sixth round of sanctions would also affect Sberbank, Russia’s top lender, diplomats told Reuters, adding it to several banks that have already been excluded from the SWIFT messaging system.
If agreed, the sanctions would mark a watershed for the 27 countries long dependent on Russian energy. There would still be exemptions for some countries, including Hungary and Slovakia, and natural gas has yet to be targeted with sanctions.
Mariupol bunkers attacked
The plans for new sanctions have been introduced as Russia escalates its offence in the east of Ukraine, strikes power stations in the western city of Lviv and sends its battalions into the Azovstal metallurgical plant in the ruined southern port of Mariupol, where hundreds of civilians have been sheltering from the daily bombardment.
Scores of evacuees who managed to leave the city under UN and Red Cross auspices reached the relative safety of Ukraine-controlled Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday after cowering for weeks in bunkers beneath the sprawling plant.
Weary-looking evacuees, including children and old people, clambered off buses after escaping the ruins of their home town in southeastern Ukraine where Russia now claims control.
“We had said goodbye to life. We didn’t think anyone knew we were there,” said Valentina Sytnykova, 70, who said she sheltered in the plant for two months with her son and 10-year-old granddaughter.
Russia is targeting Mariupol as it seeks to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea and connect Russian-controlled territory in the south and east. Parts of the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk were held by Russian-backed separatists before President Vladimir Putin launched the February 24 invasion.
More than 200 civilians remain in the plant, according to Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boichenko, with 100,000 civilians still in the city.
“Where am I to go? Let them blow me up here,” a 67-year-old woman told Reuters in the city, as she boiled water on an open fire amid the rubble of a destroyed apartment block.
Russia showed no signs of backing down nearly 10 weeks into what it calls a “special military operation,” a war that has killed thousands, destroyed cities and driven 5 million Ukrainians to flee abroad. Russia’s own $US1.8 trillion economy is heading for its biggest contraction since the years following the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union.
Putin raised the economic stakes for Kyiv’s Western backers by announcing plans to block exports of vital raw materials.
Railways bombed
Russian forces have turned their heaviest firepower on Ukraine’s east and south after failing to take Kyiv, the capital, in the opening weeks of the war.
But there were also new attacks in the west on Tuesday. The mayor of Lviv said Russian missile strikes had damaged electricity and water networks in the city near the Polish border, across which flow Western arms supplies for Ukraine’s military.
Russian forces also struck six railway stations in the centre and west of the country, the head of Ukraine’s railways, Olesksandr Kamyshin, said. There were no injuries to civilians, he added on Twitter.
In the east, Russian attacks in Donetsk on Tuesday killed 21 civilians and injured 27, regional Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said.
Attacks and shelling also intensified in Luhansk, with the most difficult area being Popasna, where it was impossible to organise evacuations, regional Governor Serhiy Haida said.
“There are no safe cities in Luhansk region,” he said on the Telegram messaging service.
In a daily update on the conflict zone, British military intelligence said Russia has deployed 22 battalion tactical groups near Ukraine’s eastern city of Izium in an effort to advance along the northern axis of the Donbas region, and added that it was likely that Russian forces intended to capture the cities of Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk.
Ukraine’s general staff said its forces had repelled an attempted Russian advance through Dovgenke, about 108 km east of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city.
In the south, Russia said it had struck a military airfield near the Black Sea port of Odesa with missiles, destroying drones, weapons and ammunition supplied by the West. Ukraine said three missiles targeted the Odesa region and all were intercepted.
The assault on the Azovstal steelworks began almost two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military not to storm the plant to finish off the defenders but to seal it off. The first — and so far only — civilians to be evacuated from the shattered plant got out during a brief cease-fire over the weekend, in an operation overseen by the UN and the Red Cross.
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Originally posted by Carlin View PostMacron has abandoned at least 50 French officers to death in Mariupol. There are French military & intelligence officers in Azovstal Factory who are there for training Ukrainian forces. Macron forbid them to disclose or surrender before the elections.
To discard any notion that foreign military personnel, in the form of contractors and advisors are not in Ukraine en masses assisting the locals would be totally naive - they are there for sure, only their exact numbers are a mystery at the moment but the Russians will get on top of that.
Azovstal is very similar to the situation in Aracinovo 2001 but I’m sensing the Russians, unlike the Macedonian forces at the time, won’t be dealing with the situation with their hands tied behind their backs.
All of these situations come with the disclaimer of plausible deniability so that foreign states are protected if shit goes south but it will still be very interesting on how the west will spin the story if their people are captured.
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Macron has abandoned at least 50 French officers to death in Mariupol. There are French military & intelligence officers in Azovstal Factory who are there for training Ukrainian forces. Macron forbid them to disclose or surrender before the elections.
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Mariupol is gone, Kherson is gone, Melitopol is gone, Donbass is falling.
Kherson, as of today, started using the Russian ruble. A Russian chain supermarket opened up in Melitopol. Prices displayed in rubles and hryvnia. Also, in Melitopol, the Banner of Victory was raised:
Dangerous Crossroads: Putin Warns the US to Back Off in Ukraine
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Russian Spetsnaz unit in Kherson captured 2 Russian-speaking British SAS operatives on April 21, after a leak of their position from Kiev.
They were conducting recon for London (these are not mercenaries).
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Macedonia will host 2,500 British soldiers for the Swift Response 22 military exercise. The exercise will also include troops from half a dozen other NATO member states, and will last until the end of May.
Britain describes the exercise as another step to deter Russia from expanding west. The exercise will include air landings and will be the biggest of its kind in Macedonia.
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A Chinese perspective on the Ukraine shitshow:
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The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most severe geopolitical conflict since World War II and will result in far greater global consequences than September 11 attacks. At this critical moment, China needs to accurately analyze and assess the direction of the war and its potential impact on the international landscape. At the same time, in order to strive for a relatively favorable external environment, China needs to respond flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests.
Russia’s ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine has caused great controvsery in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure options.
I. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War
1. Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin’s attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia’s domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin’s best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.
2. The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia’s military power is no match for NATO’s, would be even worse for Putin.
3. Even if Russia manages to seize Ukraine in a desperate gamble, it is still a political hot potato. Russia would thereafter carry a heavy burden and become overwhelmed. Under such circumstances, no matter whether Volodymyr Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to confront Russia in the long term. Russia will be subject both to Western sanctions and rebellion within the territory of Ukraine. The battle lines will be drawn very long. The domestic economy will be unsustainable and will eventually be dragged down. This period will not exceed a few years.
4. The political situation in Russia may change or be disintegrated at the hands of the West. After Putin’s blitzkrieg failed, the hope of Russia’s victory is slim and Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented degree. As people’s livelihoods are severely affected and as anti-war and anti-Putin forces gather, the possibility of a political mutiny in Russia cannot be ruled out. With Russia’s economy on the verge of collapse, it would be difficult for Putin to prop up the perilous situation even without the loss of the Russo-Ukrainian war. If Putin were to be ousted from power due to civil strife, coup d’état, or another reason, Russia would be even less likely to confront the West. It would surely succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and Russia’s status as a great power would come to an end.
II. Analysis of the Impact of Russo-Ukrainian war On International Landscape
1. The United States would regain leadership in the Western world, and the West would become more united. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukrainian war signifies a complete collapse of U.S. hegemony, but the war would in fact bring France and Germany, both of which wanted to break away from the U.S., back into the NATO defense framework, destroying Europe’s dream to achieve independent diplomacy and self-defense. Germany would greatly increase its military budget; Switzerland, Sweden, and other countries would abandon their neutrality. With Nord Stream 2 put on hold indefinitely, Europe’s reliance on US natural gas will inevitably increase. The US and Europe would form a closer community of shared future, and American leadership in the Western world will rebound.
2. The “Iron Curtain” would fall again not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but also to the final confrontation between the Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw the line between democracies and authoritarian states, defining the divide with Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron Curtain will no longer be drawn between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor will it be confined to the Cold War. It will be a life-and-death battle between those for and against Western democracy. The unity of the Western world under the Iron Curtain will have a siphon effect on other countries: the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy will be consolidated, and other countries like Japan will stick even closer to the U.S., which will form an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front.
3. The power of the West will grow significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and U.S. influence in the non-Western world will increase. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world. The scene after the 1991 Soviet and Eastern upheavals may repeat itself: theories on “the end of ideology” may reappear, the resurgence of the third wave of democratization will lose momentum, and more third world countries will embrace the West. The West will possess more “hegemony” both in terms of military power and in terms of values and institutions, its hard power and soft power will reach new heights.
4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West. Once Putin falls, the U.S. will no longer face two strategic competitors but only have to lock China in strategic containment. Europe will further cut itself off from China; Japan will become the anti-China vanguard; South Korea will further fall to the U.S.; Taiwan will join the anti-China chorus, and the rest of the world will have to choose sides under herd mentality. China will not only be militarily encircled by the U.S., NATO, the QUAD, and AUKUS, but also be challenged by Western values and systems.
III. China’s Strategic Choice
1. China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible. In the sense that an escalation of conflict between Russia and the West helps divert U.S. attention from China, China should rejoice with and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fall. Being in the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power. Unless Putin can secure victory with China’s backing, a prospect which looks bleak at the moment, China does not have the clout to back Russia. The law of international politics says that there are “no eternal allies nor perpetual enemies,” but “our interests are eternal and perpetual.” Under current international circumstances, China can only proceed by safeguarding its own best interests, choosing the lesser of two evils, and unloading the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks before China loses its wiggle room. China must act decisively.
2. China should avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world. At present, China has tried not to offend either side and walked a middle ground in its international statements and choices, including abstaining from the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly votes. However, this position does not meet Russia’s needs, and it has infuriated Ukraine and its supporters as well as sympathizers, putting China on the wrong side of much of the world. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a sensible choice, but it does not apply to this war, where China has nothing to gain. Given that China has always advocated respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can avoid further isolation only by standing with the majority of the countries in the world. This position is also conducive to the settlement of the Taiwan issue.
3. China should achieve the greatest possible strategic breakthrough and not be further isolated by the West. Cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality will help build China’s international image and ease its relations with the U.S. and the West. Though difficult and requiring great wisdom, it is the best option for the future. The view that a geopolitical tussle in Europe triggered by the war in Ukraine will significantly delay the U.S. strategic shift from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region cannot be treated with excessive optimism. There are already voices in the U.S. that Europe is important, but China is more so, and the primary goal of the U.S. is to contain China from becoming the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances, China’s top priority is to make appropriate strategic adjustments accordingly, to change the hostile American attitudes towards China, and to save itself from isolation. The bottom line is to prevent the U.S. and the West from imposing joint sanctions on China.
4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. As Putin has explicitly requested Russia’s strategic deterrent forces to enter a state of special combat readiness, the Russo-Ukrainian war may spiral out of control. A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little. If Russia instigates a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world’s turmoil. To demonstrate China’s role as a responsible major power, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.
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I do see your point but as I said earlier some of what you have stated can also be applied to other European nations. I would say the main difference in this case is just how engrained Azov is in the Ukrainian military and how much pull they have with the government because of it. Your statement on Neo-Nazis only existing with wide support is contray to the article you sent me which highlighted how little public support there is for Neo-Nazis in Ukraine. By your same logic, it can be reasoned that Neo-Nazis must have wide support everywhere in Europe given how they are present in pretty much every state, most numerically in Russia.
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Originally posted by Liberator of Makedonija View PostThat is a good article but note it does also highlight that there is little to no public support for these Neo-Nazis and that Russian claims of Ukraine being some kind of breeding ground for them is a gross exaggeration...
Currently Zelenskyy is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, or more precisely between what the CIA wants him to do on one hand and what the neo-nazi's expect on the other...both are making it impossible for Zelenskyy to negotiate a peace deal with the Russians and to spare countless more Ukrainian lives and infrastructure.
He is destroying his nation, the map of Ukraine will never be what it was prior to this conflict going kinetic and those seeds were sown in 2014 when neo-nazi's were incinerating ethnic Russians in Odessa...or was that another gross exaggeration...?
Originally posted by Liberator of Makedonija View Post...This article does highlight the dangerous relationship between the Ukrainian government and military with these groups however.
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