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Old 08-09-2017, 04:55 PM   #11
mklion
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Originally Posted by Liberator of Makedonija View Post
Albanians 26%?! You have to be joking.
What do you think the percentage is then?

Its impossible for Albanians to be lower than 20%. The reason is that they make up 32% of the births in the country (~7500 births out of 23000 born each year) and also make up around 32% of the student population in primary and lower secondary schools.

So the maximum capacity that they can reach over the next 50 years or so without emigration is around 1/3rd of the country in sheer numbers assuming demographic trends stay exactly the same.

Here is how I have determined the number of emigrants. This is just a generalization and we do not know the exact statistics because the Macedonian State Statistical office does not keep these records.

Macedonian primary school students
2006/2007: 122,016 = 53,4% share of the total
2007/2008: 118,507 = 53,6%
2008/2009: 115,605 = 53,7%
2009/2010: 112,293 = 53,7%
2010/2011: 109,765 = 54,3%
2011/2012: 107,564 = 54,3%
2012/2013: 105,648 = 54.35%
2013/2014: 104,254 = 54.7%
2014/2015: 103,036 = 54.7%
2015/2016: 102,644 = 55.4%

15.8% DECREASE in 9 years

Albanian primary school students
2006/2007: 78,467 = 34,3% share of the total
2007/2008: 75,141 = 34,0%
2008/2009: 72,570 = 33,7%
2009/2010: 69,922 = 33,4%
2010/2011: 66,156 = 32,7%
2011/2012: 65,085 = 32,8%
2012/2013: 63,483 = 32,71%
2013/2014: 62,118 = 32.6%
2014/2015: 62,012 = 32.9%
2015/2016: 60,127 = 32.4%

23.3% DECREASE in 9 years


If you look at the decrease in school students both Macedonians and Albanians lose around 2000 students per year on average. For the Macedonians this decrease is due to both emigration but also because Macedonians are having less kids on average (Total fertility rate of around 1.4-1.5)

The Albanians are emigrating as it cannot be due to population decline since they are a younger demographic and their TFR is around 2

So if 2000 kids leave assuming each has one mother and one father and also taking into account there could be a brother and sister with two of the same parents we can conclude that on average 2 school aged kids plus 2 parents = ~4000-4500 Albanians emigrate per year. This does not take into consideration young adults in their ~20s who leave so it could be even higher.

So over the next 10-15 years the Macedonian and the Albanian populations will converge as Macedonians age and Albanians large birth age demographic goes into their prime birthing years of the 20-30's, and then the Albanians population will start falling after that once deaths increase and the emigrants who have left have births outside of the country.

Last edited by mklion; 08-09-2017 at 04:57 PM.
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Old 08-09-2017, 09:57 PM   #12
Liberator of Makedonija
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Originally Posted by mklion View Post
What do you think the percentage is then?

Its impossible for Albanians to be lower than 20%. The reason is that they make up 32% of the births in the country (~7500 births out of 23000 born each year) and also make up around 32% of the student population in primary and lower secondary schools.

So the maximum capacity that they can reach over the next 50 years or so without emigration is around 1/3rd of the country in sheer numbers assuming demographic trends stay exactly the same.

Here is how I have determined the number of emigrants. This is just a generalization and we do not know the exact statistics because the Macedonian State Statistical office does not keep these records.

Macedonian primary school students
2006/2007: 122,016 = 53,4% share of the total
2007/2008: 118,507 = 53,6%
2008/2009: 115,605 = 53,7%
2009/2010: 112,293 = 53,7%
2010/2011: 109,765 = 54,3%
2011/2012: 107,564 = 54,3%
2012/2013: 105,648 = 54.35%
2013/2014: 104,254 = 54.7%
2014/2015: 103,036 = 54.7%
2015/2016: 102,644 = 55.4%

15.8% DECREASE in 9 years

Albanian primary school students
2006/2007: 78,467 = 34,3% share of the total
2007/2008: 75,141 = 34,0%
2008/2009: 72,570 = 33,7%
2009/2010: 69,922 = 33,4%
2010/2011: 66,156 = 32,7%
2011/2012: 65,085 = 32,8%
2012/2013: 63,483 = 32,71%
2013/2014: 62,118 = 32.6%
2014/2015: 62,012 = 32.9%
2015/2016: 60,127 = 32.4%

23.3% DECREASE in 9 years


If you look at the decrease in school students both Macedonians and Albanians lose around 2000 students per year on average. For the Macedonians this decrease is due to both emigration but also because Macedonians are having less kids on average (Total fertility rate of around 1.4-1.5)

The Albanians are emigrating as it cannot be due to population decline since they are a younger demographic and their TFR is around 2

So if 2000 kids leave assuming each has one mother and one father and also taking into account there could be a brother and sister with two of the same parents we can conclude that on average 2 school aged kids plus 2 parents = ~4000-4500 Albanians emigrate per year. This does not take into consideration young adults in their ~20s who leave so it could be even higher.

So over the next 10-15 years the Macedonian and the Albanian populations will converge as Macedonians age and Albanians large birth age demographic goes into their prime birthing years of the 20-30's, and then the Albanians population will start falling after that once deaths increase and the emigrants who have left have births outside of the country.
They were 17% at the start of the century, do not see how they could jump to 26% in that short space of time.
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Old 08-10-2017, 02:10 AM   #13
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They were 17% at the start of the century, do not see how they could jump to 26% in that short space of time.
I trust that most posters have presented various statistics in good faith, assuming that the stats are indeed accurate...
Sadly, I don't think you can trust any statistics in Macedonia, particularly those relating to the size of the shiptar minority.

We've seen countless examples of both sides of politics involved in fraudulent activity to further their sides political ambitions.

I have serious doubts over the claim that the size of the shiptar minority is in the 25%+ range.
My suspicion is that the 2002 census was a total fabrication, engineered by outsiders to bring the shiptar terrorists of 2001 to the 'peace table'...

The shiptari are an opportunistic lot, just as the Tirana Platform has proven...if they were remotely close to a legitimate figure of 25% or greater they'd be running to the USA and EU demanding another census and they would be demanding them on a regular basis to legitimise their claims and further their agenda but they've always remained mute on the subject...They know that it's a logistical nightmare to bus people in from all over Europe to be counted, as well as the other creative means they've employed to artificially boost their numbers...they've achieved the first part of their goal and now they're moving toward the end game, they've masterfully exploited our politicians greed and myopia.
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Old 08-10-2017, 06:37 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Phoenix View Post
I trust that most posters have presented various statistics in good faith, assuming that the stats are indeed accurate...
Sadly, I don't think you can trust any statistics in Macedonia, particularly those relating to the size of the shiptar minority.

We've seen countless examples of both sides of politics involved in fraudulent activity to further their sides political ambitions.

I have serious doubts over the claim that the size of the shiptar minority is in the 25%+ range.
My suspicion is that the 2002 census was a total fabrication, engineered by outsiders to bring the shiptar terrorists of 2001 to the 'peace table'...

The shiptari are an opportunistic lot, just as the Tirana Platform has proven...if they were remotely close to a legitimate figure of 25% or greater they'd be running to the USA and EU demanding another census and they would be demanding them on a regular basis to legitimise their claims and further their agenda but they've always remained mute on the subject...They know that it's a logistical nightmare to bus people in from all over Europe to be counted, as well as the other creative means they've employed to artificially boost their numbers...they've achieved the first part of their goal and now they're moving toward the end game, they've masterfully exploited our politicians greed and myopia.

I have my doubts too when driving around Albanian inhabited areas, lots of empty houses and I agree that the Albanians are just little too mute on the census, it just doesn't add up?

What also would be interesting is information on Macedonian citizens who's birth place is Kosovo or Albania. My understanding is that lot of Kosovo Albanians settled in MKD in thh 80s and 90s.
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