Zaev hints at referendum on name

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  • Pelagonija
    Member
    • Mar 2017
    • 533

    Zaev hints at referendum on name



    The little fella seems determined.

    What is the likelihood that Zaev can get the name change over the line? Possibly with the support of the Albanian diaspora??
  • Gocka
    Senior Member
    • Dec 2012
    • 2306

    #2
    I think unlikely.

    Like Vic said on another thread, his stance changes more often than his socks, depending on who he's talking to.

    At the end of the day I don't think there is a majority of Macedonians in Macedonia who would vote for a name change, but who knows. Maybe if its something like Northern Macedonia they could convince enough Macedonians that its not so bad.


    Originally posted by Pelagonija View Post
    http://www.b92.net/eng/news/region.p...&nav_id=101237

    The little fella seems determined.

    What is the likelihood that Zaev can get the name change over the line? Possibly with the support of the Albanian diaspora??

    Comment

    • vicsinad
      Senior Member
      • May 2011
      • 2337

      #3
      Originally posted by Gocka View Post
      At the end of the day I don't think there is a majority of Macedonians in Macedonia who would vote for a name change, but who knows. Maybe if its something like Northern Macedonia they could convince enough Macedonians that its not so bad.
      If he holds a referendum for it, I think it's unlikely. However, it may depend on how the question is asked.

      For example, I see this question getting more support from Macedonians than other potential questions:

      "Do you support Macedonia using the name Republic of Northern Macedonia instead of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia for entrance into international organizations and official use in the United Nations?"

      If the question pulls the voter away from thinking about the "why" they are even having the referendum (eg. because Greece is a chauvinistic bastard-child of Turkey) and instead focuses on 1) how the "new" name is better than the "old" name and 2) how it could give them a better economic future, then I could see a potential victory for changing the name should enough Albanians show up to vote. You would probably need about 40% ethnic Macedonians to vote for the change, which is still a high hurdle, in my opinion.

      Comment

      • tchaiku
        Member
        • Nov 2016
        • 786

        #4
        On the east you are blocked by Greece. After all you are stuck with Albanians, so the best you can do is play smart and use their alliance with NATO and the West to switch the cards and get a good new name compromise. So you hit 2 birds with a rock.

        Originally posted by vicsinad View Post
        I could see a potential victory for changing the name should enough Albanians show up to vote.
        ''FYROM'' isn't really a thing unless you are Greek. Everybody here calls it Macedonia, even in Italy. I am not really sure if they would bother enough to vote though.

        Originally posted by vicsinad View Post
        "Do you support Macedonia using the name Republic of Northern Macedonia instead of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia for entrance into international organizations and official use in the United Nations?"
        Why would you want to call it ''Northern Macedonia'' it is even more provocative. Republic of Vardar Macedonia would be a better choice, or even better just Republic of Macedonia. It is not even north enough.

        One other question is how does Greece have enough power to oppose the name? Is it because of EU and NATO? Or I am probably missing something.

        Comment

        • Gocka
          Senior Member
          • Dec 2012
          • 2306

          #5
          It is a big hurdle but the more I think about it, and just seeing the question framed in different ways, it makes me a little uneasy. Given the right circumstances, and if the traitors frame it in a clever way, it's not too far fetched.



          Originally posted by vicsinad View Post
          If he holds a referendum for it, I think it's unlikely. However, it may depend on how the question is asked.

          For example, I see this question getting more support from Macedonians than other potential questions:

          "Do you support Macedonia using the name Republic of Northern Macedonia instead of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia for entrance into international organizations and official use in the United Nations?"

          If the question pulls the voter away from thinking about the "why" they are even having the referendum (eg. because Greece is a chauvinistic bastard-child of Turkey) and instead focuses on 1) how the "new" name is better than the "old" name and 2) how it could give them a better economic future, then I could see a potential victory for changing the name should enough Albanians show up to vote. You would probably need about 40% ethnic Macedonians to vote for the change, which is still a high hurdle, in my opinion.

          Comment

          • vicsinad
            Senior Member
            • May 2011
            • 2337

            #6
            Originally posted by tchaiku View Post


            Why would you want to call it ''Northern Macedonia'' it is even more provocative. Republic of Vardar Macedonia would be a better choice, or even better just Republic of Macedonia. It is not even north enough.

            One other question is how does Greece have enough power to oppose the name? Is it because of EU and NATO? Or I am probably missing something.
            I don't want to call it Northern Macedonia or Vardar Macedonia or anything other than Macedonia. But based on the names that have been proposed in the past, I just filled in a sample question with an example. You could pick any other name.

            Greece has enough power for three reasons:

            1) Our politicians signed an agreement with them in 1995 on the matter caving in to their demands, partly;
            2) Our politicians continue to accept The fYRoM for UN purposes; and
            3) Greece has veto power against new members entering NATO/EU

            Comment

            • vicsinad
              Senior Member
              • May 2011
              • 2337

              #7
              Originally posted by Gocka View Post
              It is a big hurdle but the more I think about it, and just seeing the question framed in different ways, it makes me a little uneasy. Given the right circumstances, and if the traitors frame it in a clever way, it's not too far fetched.
              Greece placed embargoes on Macedonia to make Macedonians desperate enough to accept the Interim Accord. Now a little more cleverly, they are simply blocking Macedonia's "Western integration" by threat of veto in order to hopefully make enough people desperate again to change the name for international purposes.

              And Macedonia continues to play this game...

              Comment

              • Pelagonija
                Member
                • Mar 2017
                • 533

                #8
                I think we also have to factor in what the perceived benefits are of joining NATO by the Macedonian public, if they believe that the end result may lead to improvement of living standards or open the opportunity to emigrate then strong possibility yes.

                I personally am not a fan of NATO and EU, having countries like Crna Gorna, Albania and ROM only furthers their objective of encirclement of Russia and smothering Serbia into the fold. As for the EU also take Bulgaria, living standards have slightly improved but youth are emmigrating by the masses, and the country is still one of the poorest.. no national dignity either!

                Comment

                • Risto the Great
                  Senior Member
                  • Sep 2008
                  • 15658

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Gocka View Post
                  It is a big hurdle but the more I think about it, and just seeing the question framed in different ways, it makes me a little uneasy. Given the right circumstances, and if the traitors frame it in a clever way, it's not too far fetched.
                  It is right up the alley of clever Macedonians. God they are clever. They will say it is about one upping the situation. This will be just for UN purposes. My God, the man is a genius.

                  Grujo wanted a referendum on the name as well.

                  Another genius.

                  Macedonians are so clever.
                  Risto the Great
                  MACEDONIA:ANHEDONIA
                  "Holding my breath for the revolution."

                  Hey, I wrote a bestseller. Check it out: www.ren-shen.com

                  Comment

                  • Risto the Great
                    Senior Member
                    • Sep 2008
                    • 15658

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Pelagonija View Post
                    Possibly with the support of the Albanian diaspora??
                    I don't think that is a factor at all.
                    However, there still is a chance that Macedonians would sell their ancestors for an iPhone, so it is still possible.
                    Risto the Great
                    MACEDONIA:ANHEDONIA
                    "Holding my breath for the revolution."

                    Hey, I wrote a bestseller. Check it out: www.ren-shen.com

                    Comment

                    • Phoenix
                      Senior Member
                      • Dec 2008
                      • 4671

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Gocka View Post
                      It is a big hurdle but the more I think about it, and just seeing the question framed in different ways, it makes me a little uneasy. Given the right circumstances, and if the traitors frame it in a clever way, it's not too far fetched.
                      There's two big problems here...

                      Firstly, as you've just mentioned...the framing of the question.
                      Cloaking the question in a fog of ambiguity can be very self serving to the political interest of the incumbent power and not necessarily to the will of the majority.

                      The second issue (as also previously mentioned) is Zaev himself...if we're to believe that his various interviews around the Balkans are indeed verbatim, then the Macedonian people can't have any faith in him to follow a straight course, free from the sleight of hand that he has depended on thus far to grasp political power in Macedonia.

                      My greatest fear about Zaev is that I see him as the most servile of any past leader of Macedonia (since independence).
                      I certainly don't see him being servile to the Macedonian people, as the office demands but servile to Western interests and those interests are in no way aligned to that of the Macedonian people...

                      I think Zaev would sell or barter the name at the drop of a hat, his challenge will be, how to lay the blame at the feet of somebody else...

                      Comment

                      • Phoenix
                        Senior Member
                        • Dec 2008
                        • 4671

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Risto the Great View Post
                        ...However, there still is a chance that Macedonians would sell their ancestors for an iPhone, so it is still possible.
                        I have absolutely no doubt about that...

                        I think it's been one of the greatest mistakes that any politician has made in Macedonia, to even bring up the topic that the citizens should be voting on their own identity...it's a process that has absolutely no upside but a world of ridicule and embarrassment on the other side...imagine an entire lineage of people self terminating with the single stroke of a pen.

                        Comment

                        • Vangelovski
                          Senior Member
                          • Sep 2008
                          • 8530

                          #13
                          I think a referendum could easily succeed, for the following reasons:

                          1. As Vicsinad has already noted, referendums usually pass or fail based on the specific question asked.

                          2. I've seen survey's of Macedonian opinion and around 70% (on average) would not support a change. That means around 30% would. Add Albanians into that mix and it would be a close call.

                          3. Roll out the propaganda machine (like they did in 2004 for the decetralisation referendum) and you might find an "acceptable" name.

                          4. The EU continues to be a utopia for many Macedonians - never underestimate that pull.

                          Phoenix mentioned the need for Zaev to find a scapegoat. I don't think he needs one. I think Macedonians are so passified that many would drop the name for a chance of boarding the sinking EU ship.
                          If my people who are called by my name will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and restore their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14

                          The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments, of their duties and obligations...This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people was the real American Revolution. John Adams

                          Comment

                          • Tomche Makedonche
                            Senior Member
                            • Oct 2011
                            • 1123

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Vangelovski View Post
                            I think a referendum could easily succeed
                            But will a change in name succeed in their admittance to the EU or NATO?

                            What's to stop another state from applying its veto?, I mean if RoM goes to the point of capitulating on their own name then clearly everything else is up for sale too no?, what's to stop say Bulgaria from adding another ridiculous demand before admittance can be allowed?, or Albania in respect of NATO?, or even France or any of the other EU members?, its not like expansion is on the top of their agenda these days, not to mention, with RoM becoming a third Albanian state, I don't think the EU would be remiss to the fact that RoM's admission would indirectly open the door for Albanians form Albania and Kosovo to have free access to the EU, to willingly let Europe's Muslim's loose within the union.

                            I'd say its not far fetched to assume that some EU states might have an issue with that...
                            “There’s a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at heart, that you can’t take part, you can’t even passively take part, and you’ve got to put your bodies upon the gears and upon the wheels, upon the levers, upon all the apparatus and you’ve got to make it stop, and you’ve got to indicate to the people who run it, to the people who own it, that unless you’re free, the machine will be prevented from working at all” - Mario Savio

                            Comment

                            • Gocka
                              Senior Member
                              • Dec 2012
                              • 2306

                              #15
                              You make an excellent point. Once you set the precedent, you leave yourself open to pretty much anything. That is why the name "dispute" has been just as destructive to Macedonian sovereignty as actually changing the name. If you are willing to negotiate, that means you have a price, even if its high, there is a price.

                              Originally posted by Tomche Makedonche View Post
                              But will a change in name succeed in their admittance to the EU or NATO?

                              What's to stop another state from applying its veto?, I mean if RoM goes to the point of capitulating on their own name then clearly everything else is up for sale too no?, what's to stop say Bulgaria from adding another ridiculous demand before admittance can be allowed?, or Albania in respect of NATO?, or even France or any of the other EU members?, its not like expansion is on the top of their agenda these days, not to mention, with RoM becoming a third Albanian state, I don't think the EU would be remiss to the fact that RoM's admission would indirectly open the door for Albanians form Albania and Kosovo to have free access to the EU, to willingly let Europe's Muslim's loose within the union.

                              I'd say its not far fetched to assume that some EU states might have an issue with that...

                              Comment

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