Latest official ethnic Births & Deaths Statistic 2017

[Gocka]

I predict a fair bit of Macedonians returning soon.

A lot of Macedonians left for Germany on work visas. The problem is that all they do in Germany is wash dishes and deliver pizza's. They usually make about a 1000 euros a month. This might seem like a lot by Macedonian standards, but they quickly find out that in Germany you can't even pay rent with that. Most of them live in social government housing, full of drug addicts and the like, they pay about 400 euros a month to live there, a few hundred goes towards food and utilities, and they are left with at best 200-300 euros a month. That is not much better than what they had back home.

As soon as the reality of that sets in, many will come back home with their tails between their legs.

In this regard Albanians have more opportunity. They own business and they always have organized crime to lean on. In my estimation they are much more likely to remain abroad than Macedonians. Now the Macedonians that go to Australia, Canada, and the USA are probably not coming back.

[Albo]

PS: 'Citizens' who live permanently abroad (regardless of ethnicity and work status) and come back to visit for the summer months should not figure in the census numbers - period. This completely taints the picture, and defeats the very purpose of a national census. If such a scenario were to take place the collected data would need to be flushed down the toilet.

They don't all only come back in summer... many do yes! But its more complex...the majority are in Europe.. many don't have any other citizenship other than that of Macedonia.. they come and go for different periods of time, and they invest the majority of profits back into Macedonia...

I understand a census is a reflection of a country on a certain day! But regardless of where they spend most of the year they should be counted in some form (maybe a separate graph) as they are citizens who may not possess any other citizenship and contribute greatly to the Macedonian economy through investments and remittances.

The best part below is that Kichevo is on its way to become majority ethnic macedonian once again due to high emigration rate! Also what was once on pace to become majority Albanian like Jegunovce Sopiste and Cucer-Sandevo will once again all be Macedonian*

Gazi Baba............2006....................2014
Total Students.......7876..................7087
Macedonian ...........5003 63.5%......4639 65.4%
Albanian..................2161 27.4%....1850 26.1% DECREASE

1.3% Isn't worth mentioning really.. The Albanians of Gazi Baba (Idrizevo neighborhood) have been waiting for a new Albanian school to be built for years.. many of them go to schools in Cair..

Karpos...................2006.................2014
Total Students..........6445................5782
Macedonian...............5732 88.9%....5161 89.3%
Albanian....................475 7.4%.....348 6.0% DECREASE

Karposh has never had any major Albanian presents

Brvenica............2006.....................2014
Total Students.....2226....................1686
Macedonian..........714 32.1%....... 594 35.2%
Albanian .............1512 67.9%........1092 64.7% DECREASE


Gostivar.............2006 ..................2014
Total Students......9950...................6686
Macedonian..........1560 15.7%......1327 19.8%
Albanian...............6647 66.8%........4020 60.1% DECREASE

Both far from becoming majority Macedonian

Zelenikovo.........2006...............2014
Total Students......482................341
Macedonian..........274 56.8%.....200 58.6%
Albanian..............170 35.3%..... 101 29.6% DECREASE

Jegunovce................2006..................201 4
Total Students...........1213...................939
Macedonian................578 47.6% .......513 54.6%
Albanian ....................627 51.7% ........421 44.8% DECREASE

Both rural regions where Albanians and Macedonians mostly live in separate villages from each other.. would be interesting to see current figures.

Kichevo...................2006.................... .........2014
(including Oslomej, zajas, Vranestica, Druvogo)
Total Students...........5696........................... .3798
Macedonian...............1824 32.0%...............1489 39.2%
Albanian ....................3163 55.5% .............1668 43.9% DECREASE
Kicevo together with Struga are the two major regions where a "demographic war" will continue.. it's a battle between migration and low birth rates.

The strongest Macedonian factor in Kicevo and Struga are based in the city the surrounding (macedonian majority) villages especially in Kicevo are pretty much abandoned or have very low numbers as they have moved to the city since the days of Yugoslavia.

Ohrid.................2006......................20 14
Total Students.....5753.....................4836
Macedonian.........4740 82.4%........4050 83.7%
Albanian..............420 7.3%..........256 5.3% DECREASE


Resen..................2006...................... 2014
Total Students........1544.....................1089
Macedonian............1048 67.8% ........743 68.2%
Albanian.................187 12.1% ........121 11.0% DECREASE

Both regions have a large Albanian Diaspora especially Resen where probably 90% of the Albanians who originate from here are abroad,

Ohrid has always been majority Macedonian, never been threatened but losing 100 students per year isn't good for the city regardless of ethnicity as it's the most vibrant city outside of Skopje in the country!

Tetovo................2006 ...................2014
Total Students......12326................. 9871
Macedonian............1787 14.5%....1581 16.0%
Albanian.................9986 81.0%......7815 79.1% DECREASE

2% difference is minor and not really a turning point at this stage!

Cucer-Sandovo.............2006 ...................2014
Total Students...............831....................681
Macedonian...................338 40.7%.......322 47.3%
Albanian........................334 40.2% ......222 32.6% DECREASE

Interesting.. didn't know about the figures of this one... it's a very strategic area with a small population but covers a large amount of territory leading into Skopje..

Why are the figures only up until 2014? Have the latest numbers not been released yet?

Do you have the numbers for:

Cair
Shuto Orizari
Dollneni
Cashka
Studenicani
Saraj
Trace
Lipkovo
Debar
??

Also how retarded is Albo for saying that the % of Albanian citizens in Macedonia fluctuates along with the seasons. Apparently he doesn't know the difference between residents and visitors.*

Why is it retarded??
I understand that Macedonians and Albanians will never agree on who should or shouldn't be counted.. I have said in the past .. 2 sets of figures need to exist, one for the people who spend the majority of the year in the country and a second set of figures that counts all citizens and maybe even a third graph for eligible citizens..

The government needs to have as much information possible regarding it's people!

The 2 major arguments are
Macedonians say:
You don't live here the majority of the year then you shouldn't be counted... full stop.

Albanians say:
I dont live here because the government hasn't made it possible for me to live a normal life here and raise a family.
I want to be counted because:-
I am from here
I'm a citizen here
I own property here ( which I pay tax on)
I invest here
I vote here
I have all relevant documentation eg. Passport, ID Card, License (Which I pay for)
I pay all my dues to the state also my utilities
Ect ect..

There needs to be some unique criteria on who is or how people are counted according to the reality and situation which is Macedonia that both sides can agree to..

Albo,

Why don't you stop beating around the bush and just admit that you believe Albanians have claim to Macedonian lands. That you don't believe Macedonians are your hosts, rather the other way around. That you want nothing to do with Macedonia or Macedonians, rather you want autonomous rule over and land where Albanians reside.

Not claiming anything or anyone's land..
As for Macedonians being our hosts as you say:
Im sorry I don't agree to that terminology regardless of which ethnic group your talking about...

We are here as you are .. personally my family has no history or relatives outside the territory of Macedonia...

Also I don't regard Macedonians in Albania as being "hosted" by Albaina.. they live where they live and have every right to live as Macedonians as they choose, because they weren't asked where they want to live eg, Albania or Macedonia..

For then Balkans to function and prosper the people need not feel victims of their geography..

[mklion]

They don't all only come back in summer... many do yes! But its more complex...the majority are in Europe.. many don't have any other citizenship other than that of Macedonia.. they come and go for different periods of time, and they invest the majority of profits back into Macedonia...

I understand a census is a reflection of a country on a certain day! But regardless of where they spend most of the year they should be counted in some form (maybe a separate graph) as they are citizens who may not possess any other citizenship and contribute greatly to the Macedonian economy through investments and remittances.



1.3% Isn't worth mentioning really.. The Albanians of Gazi Baba (Idrizevo neighborhood) have been waiting for a new Albanian school to be built for years.. many of them go to schools in Cair..



Karposh has never had any major Albanian presents



Both far from becoming majority Macedonian



Both rural regions where Albanians and Macedonians mostly live in separate villages from each other.. would be interesting to see current figures.

Kichevo...................2006.................... .........2014
(including Oslomej, zajas, Vranestica, Druvogo)
Total Students...........5696........................... .3798
Macedonian...............1824 32.0%...............1489 39.2%
Albanian ....................3163 55.5% .............1668 43.9% DECREASE


Kicevo together with Struga are the two major regions where a "demographic war" will continue.. it's a battle between migration and low birth rates.

The strongest Macedonian factor in Kicevo and Struga are based in the city the surrounding (macedonian majority) villages especially in Kicevo are pretty much abandoned or have very low numbers as they have moved to the city since the days of Yugoslavia.



Both regions have a large Albanian Diaspora especially Resen where probably 90% of the Albanians who originate from here are abroad,

Ohrid has always been majority Macedonian, never been threatened but losing 100 students per year isn't good for the city regardless of ethnicity as it's the most vibrant city outside of Skopje in the country!



2% difference is minor and not really a turning point at this stage!



Interesting.. didn't know about the figures of this one... it's a very strategic area with a small population but covers a large amount of territory leading into Skopje..

Why are the figures only up until 2014? Have the latest numbers not been released yet?

Do you have the numbers for:

Cair
Shuto Orizari
Dollneni
Cashka
Studenicani
Saraj
Trace
Lipkovo
Debar
??



Why is it retarded??
I understand that Macedonians and Albanians will never agree on who should or shouldn't be counted.. I have said in the past .. 2 sets of figures need to exist, one for the people who spend the majority of the year in the country and a second set of figures that counts all citizens and maybe even a third graph for eligible citizens..

The government needs to have as much information possible regarding it's people!

The 2 major arguments are
Macedonians say:
You don't live here the majority of the year then you shouldn't be counted... full stop.

Albanians say:
I dont live here because the government hasn't made it possible for me to live a normal life here and raise a family.
I want to be counted because:-
I am from here
I'm a citizen here
I own property here ( which I pay tax on)
I invest here
I vote here
I have all relevant documentation eg. Passport, ID Card, License (Which I pay for)
I pay all my dues to the state also my utilities
Ect ect..

There needs to be some unique criteria on who is or how people are counted according to the reality and situation which is Macedonia that both sides can agree to..



Not claiming anything or anyone's land..
As for Macedonians being our hosts as you say:
Im sorry I don't agree to that terminology regardless of which ethnic group your talking about...

We are here as you are .. personally my family has no history or relatives outside the territory of Macedonia...

Also I don't regard Macedonians in Albania as being "hosted" by Albaina.. they live where they live and have every right to live as Macedonians as they choose, because they weren't asked where they want to live eg, Albania or Macedonia..

For then Balkans to function and prosper the people need not feel victims of their geography..

Albanians are in approxmately 25-30 municipalities in the country. There is no municipality over the past 10 years where Albanians have increased in number by any significant means. Their population numbers have either stayed the same or decreased. Rarely is there any municipality where there has been an explosion or increase in the number of them. There has been percentage change in proportion of Albanian Populations VS Macedonian ones. Most of them are due to lower birth rates for Macedonians VS Emigration for the Albanians


I will use these municipalities as examples. These are generally the only Municipalities in the entire country where there has been a significant change in the positive for the Albanians over the last 10 years. What you will note is that in general there has not been a large increase in number of births/student increase. Their student numbers have only stayed around the same ( a swing of 50-100 people is hardly population growth). In these municipalities the Macedonian number has decreased due to low birth rate and the Albanian has stayed the same due to stable birth rate but no large emigration out of these specific municipalities. Even your beloved Cair has only had 200 increase in students in the past 10 years.

Primary and lower secondary students for the past 10 years.
Cashka................. 2006/7..............2016/7
Total Students.........1122...............1053
Macedonian.............411 36.6%......262 24.8%
Albanian.................623 55.5%......699 66.3% INCREASE

Krusevo..............2006/7....................2016/7
Total Students.........944....................787
Macedonian..............547 57.9%.........337 42.8%
Albanian...................290 30.7%........374 47.5% INCREASE

Butel.................2006/7................2016/7
Total Students.....5132................4962
Macedonian.........2262 44.0%.....2082 41.9%
Albanian..............2287 44.5%.....2444 49.2% INCREASE

Chair................2006.................2016/7
Total Students....8046.................7724
Macedonian.........399 5.0%.........161 2.1%
Albanian..............5630 70.0%.....5882 76.1% INCREASE


Now looking at what I call the "missed opportunity" for the Albanians to take over more municipalities in Macedonia, here are the ones that have swung in favor for the Macedonians. In these municipalities there is a high Emigration rate of the Albanians outpacing the low birth rate/emigration for the Macedonians.


**Brvenica and Kichevo getting mighty close **

Brvenica............2006/7.....................2016/7
Total Students.....2226....................1511
Macedonian..........714 32.1%.......... 619 41.0%
Albanian .............1512 67.9%.........892 59.0% DECREASE

Jegunovce................2006..................201 6/7
Total Students...........1213...................977
Macedonian................578 47.6% .......528 54.0%
Albanian ....................627 51.7% ........445 45.5% DECREASE

Kichevo...................2006/7.................... .........2016/7
(including Oslomej, zajas, Vranestica, Druvogo)
Total Students...........5696........................... .3689
Macedonian...............1824 32.0%...............1424 38.6%
Albanian ....................3163 55.5% .............1574 42.6% DECREASE


Sopiste................2006/7....................2016/7
Total Students.........690....................533
Macedonian.............255 37.0%.......255 47.8%
Albanian.................385 55.8%........224 42.0% DECREASE


Cucer-Sandovo.............2006/7 ...................2016/7
Total Students...............831....................633
Macedonian...................338 40.7%..........344 54.3%
Albanian........................334 40.2% .........194 30.6% DECREASE

Zelenikovo.........2006/7...............2016/7
Total Students......482................324
Macedonian..........274 56.8%.....200 61.7%
Albanian..............170 35.3%..... 86 26.5% DECREASE


Mavrovo I Rostuse.........2006/7.................. 2016/7
Total Students................979...................602
Macedonian....................214 21.8%........214 35.5%
Albanian........................124 12.7%...........55 19.1% DECREASE



At the end of the day the reality is that neither Albanians Nor Macedonians are growing in absolute numbers. What is happening is the Albanians have a Total fertility rate of around 2.1 - holding their population steady in some municipalities where emigration is low and losing population in municipalities where emigration is high (like Brvenica).

For the Macedonians - their TFR is around 1.4-1.6. So their population decline is primarily due to lower than average birth rates and less so on emigration.

[Carlin]

Can people be “double counted” in different countries' census?

URL:

https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/9579/can-people-be-double-counted-in-different-countries-census

One thing which comes pretty close to an international standard is the European population and housing census regulation of 2008. Before this directive there were differences between how different EU countries counted their population, which lead to EU residents being counted double or not at all. This directive cleared up those differences to allow comparable population counts between different EU countries.

URL:

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2008:218:0014:0020:EN:PDF

It defines "Population" as follows:

- ’population’ shall mean the national, regional and local population at its usual residence at the reference date.

- ’usual residence’ shall mean the place where a person normally spends the daily period of rest, regardless of temporary absences for purposes of recreation, holidays, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage.

- the following persons alone shall be considered to be usual residents of the geographical area in question:

(i) those who have lived in their place of usual residence for a continuous period of at least 12 months before the reference date; or

(ii) those who arrived in their place of usual residence during the 12 months before the reference date with the intention of staying there for at least one year.


That means it counts all people who currently live within the borders of a state for at least a year or plan to stay for at least a year, regardless of their nationality and legal status.

People who are in a country on diplomatic or military mission would count as the population of that country when they are on an assignment of at least 12 month.

But this directive only applies to the EU. Internationally there are still large differences between who is considered a resident. Also, less developed countries often lack the bureaucratic infrastructure to do an accurate population count, so their population numbers are often just rough estimates.

[Carlin]

Interview with M. Nesimi -- watch from roughly minute 22:00 until 25:15

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIQVO3o4d6c

[Carlin]

Zoran Zaev and Ali Ahmeti agreement - in the 2020 census there will be an ethnic attribute:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcVRGrEASs4

Also, emigrants who are out of the courntry for one year+ will figure in the census results, but they will not be in the total population count.

[Gocka]

Also, emigrants who are out of the country for one year+ will figure in the census results, but they will not be in the total population count.

WTF does that even mean? If they are not part of population then what do they figure into? Or is it a ploy to count all the Albanians so they can remain above 20%.

[Carlin]

WTF does that even mean? If they are not part of population then what do they figure into? Or is it a ploy to count all the Albanians so they can remain above 20%.

Honestly, I am confused as you are. I don't know what they're planning to do. It looks like the Director of the Statistical Office Apostol Simovski was 'overruled', because he kept repeating that ethnic data does not have any usable value and is always the basis for politicizing the entire census.

It seems to be a political deal/political agreement reached to ameliorate certain "problems".

From January 2019 -

[VMRO]

Honestly, I am confused as you are. I don't know what they're planning to do. It looks like the Director of the Statistical Office Apostol Simovski was 'overruled', because he kept repeating that ethnic data does not have any usable value and is always the basis for politicizing the entire census.

It seems to be a political deal/political agreement reached to ameliorate certain "problems".

From January 2019 -

Sounds like another way to inflate that there is 2.4 Million people in the country and justifying a 1.8 Million voting roll.

How the hell can you include people not being in the country for over a year.

It goes against the reason for having a census in the first place, the whole point is to record information regarding people Living in the country at that point in time.

[Niko777]

In Macedonia everything is backwards - first new language laws are implemented, and then a "census" is carried out to justify those laws.

[Gocka]

If the people outside the country are not counted in the so called "population" then what are they classified as? Laws and policy only apply to people living in the country.

It would be one thing to say that you are going to count people who are out of the country as part of the population, but how can you claim that you won't count them as part of the population and yet count them? Count them as what?

This is what I think is at play here. The census will show the results as such:

-Population: people living in the country not counting people who are gone for more than a year.

-Ethnic make up: They will count everyone including people no longer in the country and report it in %.

The two sets of data will be unrelated to each other but Albanians will still claim they make up x% of the country.

What a load of shit!

[Risto the Great]

I have no idea how they will create anything meaningful from that data, but I'm sure it will only benefit the ethnic Albanians of Macedonia.

[mklion]

It's all about power. They want to use them to vote for DUI and SDSM.

When you have an unspecific number of albanians in the country you can manipulate voter rolls easier since there will be no standard to test against.

[Gocka]

It's all about power. They want to use them to vote for DUI and SDSM.

When you have an unspecific number of albanians in the country you can manipulate voter rolls easier since there will be no standard to test against.

That may very well be the case, but they can't officially not count them and yet count them at the same time. They are outright just not telling the truth here.

Something here is misreported or lost in translation.

[Carlin]

Ќе има и графа за етничка припадност – предлог законот за попис доби „зелено светло“

Предлог – законот за попис на населението е доставен до Владата. Новоста во овој закон е дека содржи графа за етничка припадност, нешто што беше ставено под знак прашалник од страна на Државниот завод за статистика, пишува ТВ21.

URL:

https://www.libertas.mk/ke-ima-i-grafa-za-etnichka-pripadnost-predlog-zakonot-za-popis-dobi-zeleno-svetlo/

Но, универзитетскиот професор Изет Зеќири не се согласува со еден сегмент од пописот на населението кога станува збор за дијаспората, односно за само – попишување на иселениците.

„Дијаспората нема да може да се самопопишува, а доколку биде така, оваа бројка ќе биде многу мала и симболична. Ова има шанси да заврши како избори на дијаспората кои што врз основа на изборниот законик, пријавите за гласање биле симболични, каде од десетици илјади со право на глас, се пријавиле неколку стотици за гласање“, изјави Изет Зеќири – универзитетски професор.

Пописот се очекува да се спроведе од 1 до 21 април 2020 година. По разгледувањето, Владата треба да го усвои и потоа да го испрати во Собрание, каде пратениците ќе можат да поднесуваат амандмани за корекција. Последниот попис на населението беше реализиран во 2002 година кој беше проследен со бројни дебати во врска со процентот на населението во земјава од етничка гледна точка. Од тогаш се поминати 17 години, по што разни институции истакнаа дека неспроведувањето на пописот на населението им предизвикало бројни проблеми во однос на планирањето на економските политики, образованието и социјалата. Ова предизвика и бројни проблеми на изборниот список во текот на повеќе изборни циклуси. Пописот во 2011 беше прекинат на последниот ден од неговото спроведување, за што СЈО отвори и истражна постапка.